The reporting period covers the planting of spring wheat and summer crops, which ended in late June. Winter wheat harvest started in July. The nationwide rainfall reached 248 mm, which was -23% below the 15YA average. Solar radiation (RADPAR -2%) was slightly below the 15YA, temperature (0.0°C) remained the same as average, the potential biomass was expected to decrease by 14%. For this period, rainfall is a key factor controlling crop growth. Agronomic conditions were generally within the normal range: good values for VCIx (0.85) and cropped arable land fraction (CALF 100%) were observed.

The NDVI development graph was overall below the 5-year average from April to July, especially in Northern Belarus where the trend line was far below average from June to July. The spatial pattern showed large variability across the regions. Crop conditions on about 71.7% of the cropped area were close to the 5-year average. About 28.3% of cropped areas were 0.1 NDVI units below the average, mostly scattered in the north-east and along the northern-western border, due to the significant rainfall decline. The average national VCIx was 0.85, lower than last year's 0.93, indicating generally satisfactory but slightly worsening crop prospects in most crop areas compared to previous periods. The crop production index (CPI) was 1.01. All in all, crop conditions were below average due to the rainfall deficit. 

Regional analysis

Based on cropping system, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, regional analyses are provided for three agro-ecological zones (AEZ), including Northern Belarus (028, Vitebsk, northern area of Grodno, Minsk and Mogilev), Central Belarus (027, Grodno, Minsk, and Mogilev) and Southern Belarus (029) which includes the southern halves of Brest and Gomel regions.

Northern Belarus recorded a minor increase of radiation (1%) and temperature (0.2°C) but a significant decrease of rainfall (-32%).  Therefore, BIOMSS was expected to decrease by 20%. The VCIx reached 0.82, slightly below the national average of 0.85, indicating crops in the region were moderately stressed due to lower rainfall. CALF had reached 100%. CPI of 0.97 was close to 1 but lower than other regions. The NDVI development curve was generally below average, especially from June to July.

Central Belarus experienced a decrease in solar radiation (-4%) and temperature (-0.1°C) as well as rainfall (-21%). The resulting potential biomass was expected to decrease by approximately 13%. CALF (100%), VCIx (0.86) and CPI of 1.03 indicate close to normal conditions. However, the rainfall deficit and the strong negative departure of the NDVI curve indicate below average conditions. 

Southern Belarus (southern halves of Brest and Gomel regions) experienced the same agro-climatic condition as the Central area. Lower rainfall (-5%), temperature (-0.4°C) and lower radiation (-6%) were recorded. The BIOMSS is projected to decrease by 5%. Favorable agronomic indicators (CALF 100%, VCIx 0.89) were observed. CPI value was 1.06. The conditions for spring wheat were slightly better than in the other regions.

Figure 3.10 Belarus’s crop condition, April – July 2023.

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI 

(c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                   (e) NDVI profiles

(f)Rainfall time series

(g) Temperature time series

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (North Belarus)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central Belarus)

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (South-west Belarus)

Table 3.11 Belarus’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 15YA, April – July 2023.

Table 3.12 Belarus’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, April – July 2023.