During the monitoring period, the summer crops (maize, soybean, and rice) had reached maturity and got harvested. The only exception is maize in the northeast, which will be harvested starting in October. Wheat was sown from April to May and was approaching its peak growth phase by the end of July. Overall, crop conditions in Brazil remained close to the 5-year average and last year's conditions.

Drier and warmer weather than usual dominated the growing season of summer crops. Agro-climatic indicators at the national scale present generally unfavorable conditions with 40% below average rainfall, 1.4 °C higher temperatures and 3% above average RADPAR. Shortage of rainfall and high temperature and radiation, resulted in BIOMSS being 21% below the 15YA. The prolonged dry and warm weather affected almost the entire country. All the major agricultural states suffered from a rainfall deficit  and above average temperatures (+0.6 °C in Santa Catarina to +2.9 °C in Goias). The largest rainfall was observed in Santa Catarina, with a measurement of 501 mm. On the other hand, the least rainfall was recorded in Goias, with only 5 mm. This marked the largest departure from the 15-year average, with a 97% decrease. Radiation departures among the provinces ranged from -0.4% in Rio Grande Do Sul to +9.4% in Sao Paulo. Dry and hot weather resulted in an obvious drop in BIOMSS in all major agricultural-producing states, especially in Sao Paulo (-42%), Goias (-38%), and Minas Gerais (-34%).

The crop development profile based on NDVI for Brazil presents slightly below-average values. The distribution of NDVI departure from the 5YA and the corresponding profiles further illustrate the spatial variations of crop growth conditions. Most crops in Mato Grosso Do Sul, western Parana, and western Sao Paulo (in blue color on the NDVI departure cluster map) presented well above average crop conditions although the region experienced a rainfall deficit. The major reason is the irrigation systems along the Parana River which provide sufficient water for second crops in the region, mitigating the meteorological drought. However, only 12% of the cropland in Brazil is irrigated, while most areas in central, eastern, and northern Brazil are rainfed. In contrast to the irrigated fields, crop growth conditions presented below average conditions in the rainfed regions as dry weather conditions played a decisive role. The VCIx map shows a similar spatial pattern with relatively high VCIx values in the regions along the Parana River and Rio Grande Do Sul while other regions, especially in Central and Eastern Brazil, present low VCIx.

Despite insufficient precipitation, according to the VCIx map, the values across the country are still considerable. The national VCIx is 0.9, higher compared to the previous monitoring period. It seems that the dry weather did not affect the crop cultivation and the CALF was at 99%, comparable with the 5YA. The CPI value for Brazil is 1.09, which indicates normal conditions.

All in all, although crop conditions in Brazil were below, but close to average and CropWatch estimates the average wheat outputs.

Regional analysis

Considering the differences in cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, eight agro-ecological zones (AEZ) are identified for Brazil. These include the Amazon zone (30), Central Savanna (31), the East coast (32), Northeastern mixed forest and farmland (33), Mato Grosso zone (34), the Nordeste (35), Parana River (36), and Southern subtropical rangelands (37).

Similar to the dry and hot weather pattern at the national level, all AEZs received below average rainfall ranging from -10% in Coast to -89% in Central Savanna. Above average temperatures were recorded in the eight AEZs, with the largest positive departure of temperature in the Central savanna (+2.7°C) above the 15YA. Meanwhile, above average RADPAR was also observed in most AEZs except for Southern subtropical rangelands (-2%). The continuous dry, hot, and sunny weather conditions in all AEZs hampered crop growth and resulted in lower BIOMSS from -6% to -30%. Among the AEZs, crop condition in Parana River was well below average with the lowest BIOMSS (-30%) compared to other AEZs. The largest VCIx was observed in Northeastern mixed forest and farmland at 0.94, while Central Savanna presented the lowest VCIx at 0.81.

Adverse weather conditions resulted in generally below average crop development in all AEZs but at different levels. 

The Central Savanna (31), Mato Grosso (34), and the Parana Basin(36) are the main production areas for maize and soybeans. They  received below average rainfall.  This resulted in close to normal crop growth conditions, as presented in the NDVI-based crop development profile. While rainfall was all below average, resulting in lower BIOMSS, soil moisture was normal and replenished by irrigation, which benefited crops. The CPI values for the three AEZs were 1.05, 1.12, and 1.10, respectively, confirming favorable prospects for crop production.

Among the AEZs, crop condition in Nordeste (35) was well below average, with the lowest CPI (0.9) and VCIx (0.85) values compared to other AEZs. According to NDVI profiles, crop growth conditions in Nordeste were below average throughout the monitoring period. In addition,  CALF was below average (-2%).

According to NDVI profiles, crop growth conditions in Southern Subtropical Rangelands (37) were below average in the first half of the monitoring period. However, precipitation has increased since July, reaching or slightly exceeding the average value. The temperature remains within normal levels. Its RADPAR is the only negative value among the eight AEZs. Due to deficient precipitation in the early stage, there was a slight decrease in potential biomass, but the NDVI has risen in the later period with abundant precipitation, surpassing the average value in July, making up for previous losses and promoting crop growth. Additionally, the cultivated land area has increased. The average VCIx was 0.9, and the CPI was 1.12, reflecting an overall good outlook for summer crops.

For more indicators and detailed information, please visit CropWatch Explore (http://cropwatch.com.cn/newcropwatch/main.htm).

Figure 3.5 Brazil’s crop condition, April – July 2023

(a) Phenology of major crops                          (b) Maximum VCI  

(c) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Brazil 

(d) Spatial distribution of NDVI departure from 5YA and NDVI departure profiles corresponding to the clusters 

(e) Potential biomass departure from 15YA            

(f) Meteorological drought measured by standard precipitation index 

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Central Savanna 

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Coast zone

 (i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Mato Grosso

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Nordeste

(k) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Parana basin

(l) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Southern subtropical rangelands

Table 3.1 Brazil’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April – July 2023

Table 3.2 Brazil’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, April – July 2023