During the monitoring period, harvest of the rainy season crops was completed in June and planting of dry season maize and second rice started in June and July.  CropWatch agroclimatic indicators show that  temperature and radiation (TEMP +0.2°C, RADPAR +2%) were higher than the 15YA, but rainfall was below average (RAIN -7%), which led to average biomass production (BIOMSS +0%).

According to the national NDVI development graph, crop conditions were slightly below the 5YA during the monitoring period. However, this might be an artifact due to frequent cloud cover in the satellite images, which causes low NDVI values. The NDVI clusters and profiles show that 8% of the cropland (eastern Kalimantan, eastern Sulawesi and central West Papua) was close to the 5YA in April and mid-July.  Crop conditions for the 72.4% of cropland (Java, southern Sumatra, eastern, central and western Kalimantan, northern and southern Sulawesi and northern West Papua) were close to the 5YA during the whole monitoring period.

The area of cropped arable land (CALF 100%) in Indonesia was close to the 5YA and the VCIx value was 0.94. This country's Crop Production Index (CPI) was 1.1, indicating above average conditions. Overall, crop conditions can be assessed as close to average, although the drop in rainfall in July might be an indication of an upcoming drought caused by El Niño.

Regional analysis

The analysis below focuses on four agro-ecological zones, namely Sumatra (92), Java (90, the main agricultural region in the country), Kalimantan and Sulawesi (91), and West Papua (93), among which the first three are relevant for crop production. The numbers correspond to the labels on the VCIx and NDVI profile maps.

According to the agroclimatic conditions of Java, radiation and temperature were close to average (TEMP +0℃, RADPAR +0%), but precipitation was below the 15YA (RAIN -17%). The resulting potential biomass production was also below the 15YA (BIOMSS -6%). The NDVI development graphs show that crop conditions were below the 5YA in early April, but in other months were close to the average.The Crop Production Index (CPI) in Java was 1.04, and crop production was assessed as close to average.

In Kalimantan and Sulawesi, radiation and temperature were above average (TEMP +0.4℃, RADPAR +4%), but precipitation was below the 15YA (RAIN -10%), while the potential biomass production was close to the average (BIOMSS +0%). According to the NDVI development graph,  crop conditions were below the 5YA except for the middle of April. However, a Crop Production Index (CPI) of 1.11 indicates above average conditions for this region.

Precipitation and temperature were above the 15YA (RAIN +5%, TEMP +0.2℃) in Sumatra, but radiation was  average (RADPAR +0%), which led to an increase of the potential biomass production (BIOMSS +3%). As shown in the NDVI development graph, crop conditions were significantly below the 5YA in early and end April, and close to 5YA in other months. The Crop Production Index (CPI) in Sumatra was 1.12, indicating normal conditions. 

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI            (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                      (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Time series rainfall pofile

(g) Time series temperature pofile

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Java (left) and Kalimantan-Sulawesi (right))

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Sumatra)

Table 3.29 Indonesia’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April 2023 – July 2023

Table 3.30 Indonesia’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, April 2023 – July 2023