This monitoring period covers the major Kharif cropping season in India, focused on Kharif rice planted in June and harvested in September/October. Other important Kharif crops include maize, soybean.

Nationwide, average temperatures were 0.2°C below normal, while rainfall was 833 mm, 4% above the 15-year average. Solar radiation was 1% above average. The above-average monsoon rains resulted in an 8% increase in estimated biomass compared to the 15-year average.

The NDVI anomaly clustering map shows three changing patterns of crop condition in India since June. The first pattern mainly occurred in the southern part of the Eastern Coastal Region, the northwestern part of the Agriculture Areas in Rajasthan and Gujarat, accounting for 44.4%. It showed a slight decrease in crop condition in mid-June, then recovered and was slightly above average. The second pattern mainly occurred in the Deccan Plateau, accounting for 22.3%, showing a decrease from early June, rebounding in early July, and recovering to slightly above average by late July. The third pattern occurred in the Western Coastal Region, northern part of the Assam and North-Eastern Regions, western part of the Deccan Plateau and southeastern part of the Agriculture Areas in Rajasthan and Gujarat, accounting for 33.3%. In this pattern, the crop condition kept deteriorating from June to late July, and was significantly below the 5-year average.

Correspondingly, in the VCIx distribution map, the regions with the first pattern had relatively better VCIx, mostly above 0.8; the regions with the second pattern had VCIx between 0.5-1.0; the regions with the third pattern generally had VCIx below 0.8, with many areas less than 0.5.

The national average VCIx for India was only 0.86. The cropped land fraction decreased by 8% to 63%, mainly from the Western Coastal Region, Deccan Plateau, Agriculture Areas in Rajasthan and Gujarat, and Gangetic Plain.  Part of this decline can be attributed to the floods in July, which affected about 0.5 million hectares.  The CPI was 0.83, below the 5-year average of 1.03. Overall, the extreme high temperatures in late May and early June combined with uneven rainfall distribution had adverse impacts on India's agriculture this season. All in all, conditions were average.

Regional analysis

India is divided into eight agro-ecological zones: the Deccan Plateau (94), the Eastern coastal region (95), the Gangetic plain (96), the Assam and north-eastern regions (97), Agriculture areas in Rajasthan and Gujarat (98), the Western coastal region (99), the North-western dry region (100) and the Western Himalayan region (101).

Deccan Plateau:

This region received 706 mm of rainfall, 12% above the 15-year average. Temperatures were 0.3°C below average while solar radiation was 1% above normal. The above-average rains resulted in a 5% increase in estimated biomass. However, the VCIx was only 0.73, below the normal range, and the NDVI development graph also showed crop conditions significantly below average from June to July, indicating poor crop conditions despite the positive rainfall anomaly. The cropped land fraction declined 14%. CPI was only 0.66. Overall, the crop prospects for this region were poor.

Eastern Coastal Region:

With 27% above-average rainfall (680 mm), near-normal temperatures, and average radiation, this region saw a 9% increase in estimated biomass. The VCIx reached 0.85, the cropped land fraction increased 7%, and CPI was 1.03, reflecting favorable crop prospects.

Gangetic Plain:

As a key rice growing area, the Gangetic Plain received 11% above-average rainfall at 670 mm. But temperatures were 0.5°C below normal while radiation increased 2%. The estimated biomass was 12% higher than the 15-year average. However, during the entire growing season, the NDVI development graph only reached the average level in late July, and was below average at other times. The VCIx was just 0.84, cropped land fraction declined 9%, and CPI was 0.88, indicating below-normal crop conditions.

Assam and North-Eastern Region:

This region experienced 24% below-average rainfall during the monsoon at just 1608 mm. However, warmer temperatures (+0.7°C) and 10% above-average radiation compensated for the lower rainfall, resulting in only a 5% drop in estimated biomass. The VCIx was a favorable 0.89, the cropped land fraction was equal to the 5-year average, and CPI was 1.08, indicating near normal crop conditions.

Agriculture Areas in Rajasthan and Gujarat:

With 74% above-average rainfall, and temperatures -1.2°C below normal while radiation decreased 4%, the VCIx reached 0.92, but the cropped land fraction declined 9%, and CPI was only 0.79, meaning the excessive monsoon rainfall had obvious negative impacts on crop production in this region.

Western Coastal Region:

This region experienced 12% below-average rainfall during the monsoon at just 827 mm. Temperatures were 0.3°C above average while radiation declined 1%. The estimated biomass decreased 6%. The VCIx was only 0.68, the cropped land fraction declined 18%, and CPI was only 0.64, indicating poor crop conditions.

Northwestern Dry Region:

This region saw abundant monsoon rains at 277% above average. Though temperatures were -1.8°C below normal, the estimated biomass increased 46%. The VCIx reached 1.79, the cropped land fraction increased 16%, and CPI was 1.77. The NDVI development graph showed crop conditions significantly higher than the 5-year maximum in June-July, reflecting favorable crop prospects.

Western Himalayan Region:

This region received near-average rainfall, with a 5% increase to 603 mm. Temperatures were -0.4°C below average while radiation declined 4%. The estimated biomass increased 9%. The VCIx was 0.90, indicating favorable crop conditions. The cropped land fraction was equal to the 5-year average. CPI was 1.08. The crop prospects for this region were generally normal.

Figure 3.20 India's crop condition, April - July 2023

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                         (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Time series rainfall profile    

(g) Time series temperature pofile 

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Deccan Plateau (left) and Eastern Coastal Region (right))

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Gangetic Plains (left) and Assam and north-eastern regions (right))

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Agriculture areas in Rajasthan and Gujarat (left) and Western Coastal Region (right))

(k) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (North-western dry region (left) and Western Himalayan Region (right))

Table 3.31. India’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April - July 2023

Table 3.32. India’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, April - July 2023