This monitoring period covers the grain filling period and harvest of winter wheat, as well as the planting and early establishment of the rice crop. According to the NDVI-based crop condition development graph, the conditions in Iran were below the 5-year average throughout the whole monitoring period. The cumulative rainfall was 70 mm, which was 24% below average. The average temperature was 21.8°C (0.3°C above average), whereas the photosynthetically active radiation was 1618 MJ/m2 (1% below average). The potential biomass was 7% lower than the 15-year average due to the poor rainfall. The national maximum vegetation condition index (VCIx) was 0.67, while the cropped arable land fraction (CALF) was at average compared to the past 5 years. The national Crop Production Index (CPI) was 0.91, indicating an unfavorable agricultural production situation.

The NDVI spatial patterns show that from April to July, crop conditions in 18.4% of the cropped areas were above the 5-year average (marked in blue). The orange marked regions (4.4% of the cropped areas), mainly located in the northern part of Golestan, Ardebil, and East Azarbaijan, experienced below-average crop conditions at the beginning and then recovered gradually to around average in the middle of June. The remaining cultivated areas all experienced near average crop conditions during the monitoring period. The spatial pattern of the maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx) was in accord with the spatial distribution of the NDVI profiles. 

Regional Analysis 

Based on farming system, climate, and topographic conditions, Iran can be subdivided into three regions, two of which are the main production areas for crops, namely the Semi-arid to the subtropical hilly region in the west and the north (104) and the Coastal lowland and plain areas of the arid Red Sea (103). 

In the Semi-arid to the subtropical hilly region in the west and the north, the cumulative precipitation during the monitoring period was 82 mm, 24% below average; the temperature was 19.9°C (+0.3°C), and photosynthetically active radiation was average. The potential biomass was 9% lower than the average. Crop conditions were below the 5-year average throughout the monitoring period. The proportion of cultivated land was 35%, which is 2% lower than the 5YA average. The average VCIx for this region was 0.69, indicating unfavorable crop conditions.  

In the Coastal lowland and plain areas of the arid Red Sea, the temperature was 0.1°C below average, the accumulated precipitation was 3% below average, and the photosynthetically active radiation was slightly below average (-1%). The potential biomass was 1% below the 15-year average. Crop conditions were generally above the 5YA average. During the monitoring period, CALF was 65% above the average of the last 5-years, indicating more land was cultivated. Regional VCIx was 0.84. All in all, crop conditions were average in this important wheat production region.

Figure 3.21 Iran's crop condition, April-July 2023

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c) Maximum VCI

(d) Rainfall time series profile

(e) Temperature time series profile

(f) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                  (g) NDVI profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Semi-arid to sub-tropical hills of the west and north region)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Coastal lowland and plain areas of the arid Red Sea)

Table 3.33 Iran's agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April-July 2023

Table 3.34 Iran's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's value and departure from 5YA, April-July 2023