Bulletin

wall bulletin
KazakhstanMain producing and exporting countries

Authors: 超级管理员 | Edit: tianfuyou

Spring wheat was cultivated in most of the country during this monitoring period in Kazakhstan. Sowing took place in May and harvest will start in mid-August. Crop production in Kazakhstan is mostly rainfed, as only 3% of the cropland is under irrigation. According to the NDVI profiles, the national average NDVI values were generally below average from April to July.

Compared to the 15-year average, accumulated rainfall was below average (RAIN -10%), while the temperature and radiation were above average (TEMP +0.3°C, RADPAR +3%). The dekadal precipitation was below average from late April to early June. The dekadal temperature mostly fluctuated along the average line except in early June, when it exceeded the 15-year maximum. The rainfall deficit and warmer temperatures resulted in a decrease in the BIOMSS index by 5%.

The national average maximum VCI index was 0.71 and the Cropped Arable Land Fraction (CALF) was below average by 6%. The average national CPI was 0.96.  According to the national crop condition development graphs, about 85.7% of croplands experienced below average crop conditions from May to July. About 14.3% of croplands, which were distributed in most areas of the Kostanai, Akmola, and North Kazakhstan states in the central north region, and some areas of Almaty state in the east region, experienced poor crop conditions from April to June and then return to above average in July.    

According to the agro-climate and agronomic indicators of CropWatch, the output of spring wheat in this season is estimated to be below last year's levels. However, average rainfall levels from mid June to the end of July helped alleviate the drought and create more favorable conditions for the grain filling phase of wheat, especially in the important northern region.

 

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, four sub-national agro-ecological regions can be distinguished for Kazakhstan, among which three are relevant for crop cultivation: the Northern region (112), the Eastern plateau and southeastern region (111) and the South region (110).

In the Northern region, the accumulated precipitation was below average (RAIN -8%), while the temperature and RADPAR were above average. The rainfall deficit resulted in a decrease of the BIOMSS index by 3%. NDVI profiles show that crop conditions were below average. The average VCIx for this region was 0.69, and the CALF was below average by 6%. The spring wheat production is estimated to be slightly lower than the five-year average.

In the Eastern plateau and southeastern region, the accumulated precipitation and temperature were below average (RAIN -14%, TEMP -1.0°C). The lower rainfall and temperature led to a decrease of potential biomass by 11%. The crop conditions for this region were below average during the reporting period. The average VCIx for this region was 0.77, and CALF was below average by 6%. Output for spring wheat is estimated to be below average.

In the South region, the accumulated precipitation was below average by 28%, while the temperature and radiation were above average (TEMP +0.8°C, RADPAR +2%). The combination of agro-climatic indicators resulted in a decrease of the BIOMSS index by 6%. The NDVI profiles show below-average conditions from April to July. The average VCIx for this region was 0.64, and CALF was below average by 10%. The outputs of crops are estimated to be poor. 

 



Figure 3.23 Kazakhstan's crop condition, April - July 2023

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b). Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c). Maximum VCI


(d). Rainfall profiles 

(e). Temperature profiles


(f) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                               (g) NDVI profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (North region)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Eastern plateau and southeastern region)

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (South zone)


Table 3.38 Kazakhstan agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 15YA, April - July 2023

RegionRAINTEMPRADPARBIOMSS
Current(mm)Departure from 15YA(%)Current(°C)Departure from 15YA(°C)Current(MJ/m2)Departure from 15YA(%)Current(gDM/m2)Departure from 15YA(%)
South region77-2823.20.715362616-6
Eastern plateau and  southeastern regin306-1413.8-1.014623662-11
Northern region196-816.00.813063679-3


Table 3.39 Kazakhstan, agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, April - July 2023

RegionCALFMaximum VCI
Current(%)Departure from 5YA(%)Current
South region52-100.64
Eastern plateau and  southeastern region85-60.77
Northern region75-60.69




Note: To Dr.Zhao。 谢谢提醒。已增加CPI全国描述,反映和其他指标得出结论不一样,所以没有过多描述。(Review框没法写文字)