Kenya has two distinct rainy seasons. The long rains extend from March through late May, while the short rains span from late October to December. Maize cultivation is feasible during both the long and short rains, whereas wheat cultivation exclusively takes place during the long rains. This report encompasses the monitoring phase spanning from April to July 2023, addressing the initial planting and early growth phases of long rainy season maize and wheat crops.

On a national scale, the total precipitation amounted to 348 mm, which was 43% below the average. The weather exhibited a slight warming trend, and the RADPAR was close to the 15-year average (TEMP +0.7°C, RADPAR +5%). The BIOMSS was 14% lower than the average due to lower rainfall. According to the national rainfall profiles, Kenya generally experienced low precipitation levels and is currently facing severe drought conditions. The Crop Production Index stands at 1.07, indicating a normal agricultural production in the current season. But the NDVI development graph at the national level reveals that the NDVI values were slightly below average.

The cumulative 10-day rainfall data indicated high values compared to the 15-year average in late April. At a sub-national level, only the Eastern coastal region received more rainfall (RAIN +77%). The other three regions experienced reduced rainfall, with the Southwest region exhibiting the most substantial negative deviation in rainfall compared to the 15-year average (RAIN -73%). In general, though lower than average rainfall was observed in Kenya, the current crop growth in Kenya has shown significant improvement compared to last year, primarily due to the heavy rainfall in late April that provided partial relief from the drought. All in all, crop conditions remained below average.

Regional analysis

Considering cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, Kenya can be divided into four distinct sub-national agro-ecological regions: the Eastern Coastal Region (113), the Highland Agriculture Zone (114), the Northern Region (115), and the Southwest Region (116).

The Eastern coastal region experienced a positive departure in rainfall (+77%) and an average temperature that was 0.2°C higher. The VCI reached 0.90, while the CPI stood at 1.07. The heightened rainfall was primarily observed towards the end of April and May. Moreover, the NDVI values reverted to the five-year average due to the rise in precipitation by the end of April.  Generally, the high rainfall towards the end of April has resulted in crop growth moving closer to the average level.

In the Highland agriculture zone, there was a recorded rainfall of 335 mm, which was 48% below the 15-year average (15YA). Additionally, a substantial reduction in biomass was observed (-17%). The extreme scarcity of precipitation at the start of April led to the delay of maize planting. Following a heavy rainfall towards the end of April, the growth of most crops began to align with the average level. Overall, the growth condition of crops was negatively affected by drought and remained below average. However, it is better than the same period last year.

In the Northern region, precipitation was below average at 332 mm, decreasing by 23%. However, heavy rainfall at the end of April alleviated the drought situation, resulting in an increase in NDVI values. Nevertheless, due to an extreme decrease in precipitation during June and July, the NDVI values experienced a decline. Overall, the maximum VCIx value was 0.83, and BIOMSS decreased by 4%. This indicates a slight underperformance in vegetation growth in this region.

The largest negative departure in RAIN (-73%) was observed in the Southwest region. The main crop in the Southwest region is wheat. Wheat planting occurs between April and June. As a result, the severe drought conditions have caused a postponement in sowing wheat. However, because the wheat has only recently sprouted in July, this delay in planting has not yet been reflected in the NDVI values. In general, the growth of crops in the Southwest region has been negatively impacted by the drought.

Figure 3.25 Kenya's crop condition, April- July 2023

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                           (c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                                 (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Rainfall profiles                                                                                           (g) Temperature profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, The eastern coastal region (left), The Highland agriculture zone (right)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, the northern region with sparse vegetation (left), South-west (right)

(j) Time series rainfall pofile, The eastern coastal region (left), the Highland agriculture zone (right)

(k) Time series rainfall pofile, the northern region with sparse vegetation (left), South-west (right)

Table 3.39. Kenya's agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April-July 2023

Table 3.40. Kenya's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure, April-July 2023