This report covers the production of irrigated wheat, typically sown in November and December, as well as irrigated winter maize, sown roughly one month earlier. Maize and wheat were at the harvesting stage in March and April, respectively. Rice and soybean sowing began in April.

Agro-climatic conditions showed that RAIN decreased by 37%, TEMP increased by 0.9°C, RADPAR was at the average level, and BIOMSS decreased by 17%. The CALF decreased by 2%. According to the crop condition development graph based on NDVI, overall crop growth in Mexico was below average.

During mid-June, certain regions of Mexico experienced scorching temperatures soaring up to 45 degrees Celsius. Areas such as Chiapas and Puebla states were severely impacted. This persistent heatwave triggered a prolonged period of high temperatures and arid conditions, resulting in acute water scarcity across multiple regions of Mexico. The agricultural sector bore the brunt of this situation, with crop irrigation being significantly compromised.

As the heatwave engulfed the nation, drought conditions emerged in various parts of Mexico. Several key reservoirs, including the Malpaso Dam in the southern part of Chiapas state, witnessed a notable decline in water levels. Crucial crops like corn faced challenges due to insufficient irrigation, thus jeopardizing their growth and yields. Throughout the monitoring period, the crop growth showed a consistent downward trend, particularly during June and July, when it significantly lagged behind the average benchmarks.

With only about 38.3% of cultivated areas demonstrating average crop conditions, and a mere 12.4% exhibiting above-average conditions, the gravity of the situation becomes evident. Coupled with the inadequate rainfall observed in the previous monitoring period, Mexico grapples with a severe water resource crisis. Nearly two-thirds of the country experienced water shortages during this reporting period, manifesting in grim agricultural prospects.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, Mexico is divided into four agro-ecological regions. They include the Arid and semi-arid region (128), Humid tropics with summer rainfall (129), Sub-humid temperate region with summer rains (130) and Sub-humid hot tropics with summer rains (131). Regional analyses of crop conditions provide more details for the production situation in Mexico.

The Arid and semi-arid region in northern and central Mexico encountered a significant 55% decrease in rainfall, with temperature reaching 23.7°C (+0.6°C). RADPAR recorded a value of 1546 MJ/m2, slightly lower by 1%. According to the NDVI-based development graph, crop conditions were close to the average until May, but remained far below average thereafter. The CALF was 61%, displaying a decrease of 3% compared to the five-year average. The VCIx value was 0.61.

The Humid tropics with summer rainfall region in southeastern Mexico experienced decreased RAIN with 567 mm recorded (36% decrease). TEMP increased to 27.2°C by 1.2°C, while RADPAR slightly rose to 1393 MJ/m2 (+1%). BIOMSS exhibited a reduction of 17% at 1053 g DM/m2. The VCIx value was 0.84. The region's high VCIx of 0.84 indicated generally normal crop growth. However, according to the NDVI-based development graph, conditions were below average.

The Sub-humid temperate region with summer rains in central Mexico experienced decreased RAIN with 456 mm recorded (37% decrease). TEMP increased to 21.9°C by 1.2°C, and RADPAR slightly rose to 1471 MJ/m2 (+1%). BIOMSS exhibited a reduction of 13% at 900 g DM/m2. CALF was stable at 92%, and the VCIx value was 0.65. Crop conditions were below the average level, as indicated by the NDVI-based development graph.

The Sub-humid hot tropics with summer rains region in southern Mexico experienced a notable reduction in RAIN with 502 mm recorded (28% decrease). TEMP rose to 24.5°C (+1°C), while RADPAR remained unchanged. BIOMSS displayed a decline of 14% at 922 g DM/m2. CALF remained steady at 95%, and the VCIx value was 0.77. According to the NDVI-based development graph, crop conditions were slightly below-average during the four-month period.

Figure 3.5 Mexico’s crop condition, April - July 2023

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                                    (c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                                          (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Rainfall profiles                                                                                                (g) Temperature profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI  (Arid and semi-arid regions (left) and Humid tropics with summer rainfall (right))

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Sub-humid temperate region with summer rains (left) and Sub-humid hot tropics with summer rains (right))

Table 3.2 Mexico’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 15YA, April - July 2023

Table 3.3 Mexico’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, April - July 2023