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Authors: 超级管理员 | Edit: tianfuyou
National analysis
In Mozambique, crop production predominantly relies on rainfall. This reporting period from April to July encompasses the final stages of growth and harvesting for maize and rice in the northern region. In contrast, in the central region, both crops had already been harvested by the beginning of this monitoring period. Wheat had also been fully harvested across the entire country. The agroclimatic indicators reveal a 23% reduction in rainfall compared to the 15YA. Furthermore, there have been noticeable rises in both temperature (TEMP +0.4ºC) and photosynthetic active radiation (RADPAR +5%). Consequently, these combined conditions have contributed to a 9% decline in overall biomass production across the country (BIOMSS -9%).
The previous monitoring period was marked by intense cyclones and heavy rainfall, which mostly affected the Zambézia province. On the contrary, approximately 17.5% of the cultivated area exhibited consistently favorable crop conditions throughout the entirety of the monitoring period. This was particularly pronounced in the provinces of Manica, Inhambene, and southern Gaza.
The national Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx) stood at 0.91, implying promising prospects for vegetation. Similarly, a positive Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx) was also noted in the southern region, notably in the provinces of Gaza and Inhambane. The national Crop Production Index (CPI) value was 1.04. All in all, the country's production prospects were slightly below average.
Regional analysis
Based on the national cropping system, topography, and climate, CropWatch has subdivided Mozambique into five agroecological zones (AEZs) including the Buzi basin (140), Northern High-altitude areas (141), Low Zambezi River basin (142), Northern coast (143), and the Southern region (144).
On a regional scale, rainfall was above the 15YA only in the Northern high-altitude areas (RAIN + 1%).Conversely, in the remaining agroecological zones, this crucial indicator experienced a decrease. These drops were as follows: the Buzi basin (-62%), followed by the Low Zambezia River basin (-44%), the Southern region (-28%), and the Northern coast (-13%). Across all agro-ecological regions, both temperature and photosynthetic active radiation demonstrated increases. Notably, the most substantial temperature increases were observed in the Buzi basin (+0.9ºC), while the highest increases in photosynthetic active radiation (RADPAR) were recorded in the Low Zambezia River basin (7%). Resulting from these conditions, the total biomass production experienced a notable decline: by 21% in the Buzi basin, 15% in the Low Zambezia River basin, 8% in the Northern coast, 7% in the Southern region, and 1% in the Northern high-altitude areas.
The regional crop condition development graphs based on NDVI reveal below-average crop conditions across the entire monitoring period in the Buzi basin, Low Zambezia River basin, and Northern coast. In contrast, the Northern high-altitude areas and the Southern region-maintained conditions were nearly on par with the average from early May until the end of the monitoring period. Across all agroecological zones, the CALF increased by 1% in both the Low Zambezi River basin and the Southern regions. In the remaining regions, the CALF hovered around the historical average of the past five years. With VCIx values ranging from 0.86 to 0.91, the regional CPI indicated below average conditions.
Figure 3.32. Mozambique's crop condition, April-July 2023
(a) Phenology of major crops
(b) Crop conditions development graph based on NDVI (c) Maximum VCI
(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA (e) NDVI profiles
(f) National time-series rainfall profiles (g) National time-series temperature profiles
(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI-Buzi basin (left), and Northern high-altitude areas (right)
(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI-Lower Zambezi River basin (left), and Northern coast region (right)
(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI - Southern region
Table 3.55. Mozambique’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values, and departure from 15YA, April-July 2023
Region | RAIN | TEMP | RADPAR | BIOMSS | ||||
Current (mm) | Departure from 15YA (%) | Current (°C) | Departure from 15YA (°C) | Current (MJ/m2) | Departure from 15YA (%) | Current (gDM/m2) | Departure from 15YA (%) | |
Buzi basin | 42 | -62 | 18.1 | 0.9 | 1044 | 4 | 357 | -21 |
Northern high-altitude areas | 117 | 1 | 19.1 | 0.1 | 1058 | 6 | 482 | -1 |
Low Zambezia River basin | 72 | -44 | 20.0 | 0.5 | 1031 | 7 | 427 | -15 |
Northern coast | 147 | -13 | 21.1 | 0.3 | 1045 | 5 | 576 | -8 |
Southern region | 76 | -28 | 21.0 | 0.6 | 911 | 2 | 444 | -7 |
Table 3.56. Mozambique’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values, and departure from 15YA, April-July 2023
Region | CALF | Maximum VCI | |
Current (%) | Departure from 5YA (%) | Current | |
Buzi basin | 100 | 0 | 0.92 |
Northern high-altitude areas | 100 | 0 | 0.91 |
Low Zambezia River basin | 98 | 1 | 0.86 |
Northern coast | 100 | 0 | 0.91 |
Southern region | 99 | 1 | 0.9 |
Table 3.57. Mozambique’s crop production index, April-July 2023
Region | CPI |
Buzi basin | 1.13 |
Northern high-altitude areas | 1.16 |
Low Zambezia River basin | 0.98 |
Northern coast | 1.09 |
Southern region | 1.05 |