This report covers crop conditions for maize, rice, millet and sorghum between the months of April 2023 to July 2023 in Nigeria. Normally, the rains are expected to start fully by late March into early April. However, they tend to fluctuate widely at the beginning of the rainy season. There is a large gradient in rainfall within the country. The northern regions are much drier than the coast. 

Overall, rainfall was below average (RAIN -20% ) whereas solar radiation (RADPAR +3%) and temperatures (TEMP +0.8°C) were  above the 15YA. The resulting biomass  was estimated to be below average (BIOMSS -15%). According to the NDVI development graph, crop conditions were slightly unfavorable as they fell below  the 5-year average for most of the monitoring period, except for early April, early May and early June, when the crop conditions appear to be leveled with the 5YA. 

According to the NDVI departure clustering map, 46.2% of cropland, sparsely distributed around the country, was always slightly below average from April to July. While 29.1% of the cropped area, mostly distributed around the northern part of the country extending towards the middle belt, together with a few patches found around the southern parts, was always slightly above the average throughout this monitoring period. A sharp drop in early June was observed for 8.9% of the cropped area but it gradually returned to average by early July and continued to rise above average for the remaining period. An 8.7% fraction was always trending below average. Meanwhile, a fraction of 7% located around the southern parts, where there has been excessive rainfall and reported cases of flooding experienced a sharp negative departure throughout the entire period.

At the national level, since the rains didn’t start on time in most parts of the country, especially in the northern parts, there was a decline in the cropped arable land (CALF -3%). But with a favorable maximum VCI value of around 0.87 and a Crop Production Index (CPI) of 0.98, crop conditions can be assessed as close to average.

Regional Analysis

The analysis focuses on nine agro-ecological zones in the country transiting from North to South, i.e., Sahel Savannah(153), Sudan Savannah(154), Guinea Savannah(148), Derived Savannah(146), Jos Plateau(149), Mountain Forest(152), Lowland Rainforest(150), Freshwater Swamp Forest(147) and Mangrove Forest(151).

The Sahel Savanah is found in the north-eastern part of the country, followed by the Sudan Savanah, which stretches across the entire northern region. The Guinea savannah is the largest, which is a transition between the Sudan Savanah and the Derived Savanah, covering a large portion of the central part of the country. The Derived Savanah, Fresh Water Swamp, Rain Forest and Mangrove Forest are all located in the southern part of the country. While the Jos Plateau and the Mountain Forest are also located in the central part of the country.

In the Sahel Savanah zone, the agroclimatic indicators show that accumulated rainfall (RAIN -78%) was far below average due to the late onset of rain, whereas both temperature and radiation (TEMP +0.2°C, RADPAR +2%) were above average, resulting to below-average biomass production (BIOMSS -19%). Also, (CALF -6%) was below average, with a favorable VCIx at 0.84. The crop production index (CPI  1.38) indicates that crop conditions were slightly above normal. The NDVI development graph shows that crop conditions in the area were mostly above average and even reaching above the 5 year maximum at some point.

In the Sudan Savannah, the region adopts similar agricultural practices as the Sahel Savanah zone. The agro-climatic condition also shows that accumulated rainfall (RAIN -41%) was below average, while temperature and radiation (TEMP +0.5°C, RADPAR +2%) were above average.  And as expected, there was also a significant decrease in the potential biomass  (BIOMSS -18%). CALF was also below average by -9% and the maximum VCI was 0.82. The crop conditions also maintained the 5YA except for mid-May.

The Guinea Savannah zone also recorded below average rainfall (RAIN -36%), but above-average temperature and radiation (TEMP +1.2°C, RADPAR +4%), potential biomass also dropped (BIOMSS -19%). The CALF was lower than average by -4% and the maximum VCI was 0.89, with a crop production index (CPI 1.04) which is estimated to be normal. The NDVI development graph showed that crop conditions in the area were mostly below the average for most part of the period except for early April, early May and mid-July, when they rose to the 5YA.

The Mountain Forest which covers a very little portion in the central part of the country, recorded a rainfall of (RAIN -34%), temperature was at (TEMP +0.9°C), while radiation increased to (RADPAR +1%), and biomass dropped down to (BIOMSS -14%). The CALF was  0%, and the maximum VCI was 1.00.

The Jos Plateau, also located in the central region, recorded rainfall of (RAIN -41%), temperature and radiation were also above average (TEMP +1.0°C, RADPAR +6.0%), with the potential biomass down to (BIOMSS -19%). The CALF was -0.40% and the maximum VCI was 0.86. The crop conditions only reached an average in early April and late April, but for the rest of the period, they were far from average, with a recorded crop production index of (CPI  1.07) slightly above normal.

The Derived Savanah region recorded below average rainfall (RAIN -15%), warmer temperatures (TEMP +1.0°C) and  above average solar radiation (RADPAR +3%).  Potential biomass  was below average (BIOMSS -12%).  CALF was -0.11% and the maximum VCI was at 0.93, while the crop production index (CPI 1.12) was above normal. The NDVI development graph shows that crop condition were variable and mostly below the average throughout the period.

The Lowland Rain Forest also recorded an increase in rainfall (RAIN +2%), and warmer temperatures (TEMP +0.5°C). The radiation was at (RADPAR +3.%) and the biomass was also below average (BIOMSS -4.%). The CALF was at -0.13% and the maximum VCI was 0.94. The crop production index (CPI 1.13) was above normal, but the crop condition, according to the NDVI distribution map, was also mostly unstable and below average throughout the period.

The Fresh Water Swamp Forest is located in the southern region of the country and does not cover a large area. Rainfall in this area was at (RAIN +5%) temperature was (TEMP +0.3°C), while radiation fell to +3%, and biomass dropped to (BIOMSS -1%). The CALF was below average by -0.08% and the maximum VCI was 0.94. The crop condition in this area was also irregular and below the average.

The Mangroove Forest, also located in the southern region of the country recorded above average rainfall, temperature and radiation (RAIN +8%, TEMP +0.2°C, RADPAR +3%) with a slightly below average potential biomass production of (BIOMSS -1%), with CALF at -0.02% below average and the maximum VCI of 0.89.

Figures 3.34 Nigeria's crop condition, April-July 2023

  (a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                      (c)Maximum VCI

 (d) Spatial NDVI pattern compared to 5YA and NDVI profiles                          (e)NDVI profiles

     (f) Time series temperature profile                                         (g) Time series rainfall profile

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI(Left:Sahel savannah, Right:Sudan Savannah)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI(Left:Guinea savannah, Right:Derived Savannah)

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI(Left:Jos Plateau, Right:Mountain Forest)

(k) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI(Left:Low Land Rainforest, Right:Mangroove Forest)

(l) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI: Freshwater Swamp

Table 3.60 Nigeria's agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA. April-July 2023