This bulletin encompasses the timeframe spanning April to July. The harvest of winter wheat was concluded in April and May, while the planting of maize and rice commenced in May. Agroclimatic and agronomic indicators indicate average crop conditions between April and July.

Rainfall is not the major factor influencing crop production in Pakistan, primarily due to the high proportion of irrigated cropland, which accounts for 80% of the total. Recent data indicate a remarkable 58% increase in rainfall compared to the 15-year average. Photosynthetically active radiation (RADPAR) fell short by 5% in comparison to the historical average, and air temperatures (TEMP) during this period dropped below the average by 0.7℃. The combined effect of these agroclimatic indicators resulted in an above-average biomass (BIOMSS) production by 19%. At the national level, the rainfall during the period remained generally above average. The highest amounts were observed in late May and late July. Intense precipitation resulted in flooding in some regions, which led to below-average development of NDVI. Poorer crop growth in the areas surrounding and downstream of the rivers can confirm this situation, with the corresponding VCIx values falling below 0.5 in those regions.  But the fraction of cropped arable land (CALF) increased by 1% compared with 5YA, which may have a positive effect on the summer crop production.

At the national level, the NDVI development graph indicated above-average conditions for most of this monitoring period. The spatial NDVI patterns and profiles show that 37.4% of the cropped areas were below average in April, while 28.5% were below average in May. About 18.2% of the cropped area was continuously below average, mainly located in the Northern Highlands and some regions along the Indus River basin. Unfavorable conditions due to the flood events since the beginning of June were observed for the Northern Highlands, which resulted in a lower CALF. But it was also above the average of the last 5 years in the other two regions. The Indus River basin, the main rice producing area, had approached average NDVI after transplanting in June. Heavy rainfall and floods affected some areas of Punjab and Sindh in July, but it is too early to assess the full damage that had been created by these floods. The Crop Production Index (CPI) in Pakistan is 1.05, indicating an average agricultural production situation.

Regional analysis

For a more detailed spatial analysis, CropWatch divides Pakistan into three agro-ecological regions based on geography and agro-climatic conditions: the Lower Indus River basin in South Punjab and Sindh(155)，the Northern Highlands(156) and the Northern Punjab(157).

In the Lower Indus River basin in South Punjab and Sindh(155), RAIN was sharply above average by 319% and TEMP was below average by 1.6℃, while RADPAR was below average by 7%. The estimated BIOMSS departure was +34%. The VCIx was at 0.87, which is above normal for this period between the harvest of wheat and the establishment of the summer crops. Together with the vast majority of irrigated land in this region, prospects for the newly established crops are promising. But crops were submerged by floods in some areas of Punjab and Sindh in July, CALF was rather low (40%), but 1% higher than the five-year average. The excessive rains, together with the ensuing floods, may hamper crop production in this region. Overall, the prospects were satisfactory.

In the Northern Highlands(156), RAIN was above average by +2%, whereas RADPAR (-3%) and TEMP(-0.2℃)  were below average. The region experienced warmer and drier weather, and the estimated BIOMSS departure was +4%. Wheat conditions were satisfactory. The  weather was generally favorable for the establishment of maize. The region achieved a rather low CALF of 54%, which is a decrease by 2% over the 5YA. Crop production is expected to be below average.

Northern Punjab(157) is the main agricultural region in Pakistan. It recorded more rainfall than usual (RAIN +163%). Both TEMP (-2.3℃)  and RADPAR (-7%) were below average. The combination of these factors resulted in above-average estimates of BIOMSS by 37% compared to the recent fifteen-year average. Wheat had above-average NDVI values during the late growth period, which resulted in above-average yields. For summer crops, crop conditions in early July were above average, later slightly below average. This decrease may have resulted from excessive regional rains and floods. The CALF was high (73%), an increase by 3%. The VCIx of 0.87 was also high. Production of summer crops is favorable.

Figure 3.34 Pakistan's crop condition, April-July 2023

(a).Phenology of major crops

(b). Pakistan national level crop-condition development graph based on NDVI(left) and time series rainfall profile, comparing the April-July 2023 period to the previous season and the five-year average (5YA) and maximum

(c). Maximum VCI

(d). Pakistan spatial NDVI patterns up to July 2023 according to local cropping patterns and compared to the 5YA (left) and associated NDVI profiles (right)

(e). crop condition development graph based on NDVI for Lower Indus river basin (Pakistan)

(f).Northern Highland (Pakistan)(right) and Northern Punjab crop condition development graph based on NDVI(left)   

Table3.59. Pakistan agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April-July 2023

Table3.60. Pakistan, agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure  from 5YA, April-July 2023