During the monitoring period, a cold and wet April delayed the development of the winter crops as well as the sowing and establishment of summer crops. The winter wheat harvest started in July.

Rainfall (RAIN -20%), temperatures (TEMP -0.3°C), and solar radiation (RADPAR -2%)  were below the average for the same period in the past 15 years. This resulted in a 10% reduction in BIOMSS. Benefiting from above average rainfall from April to the first half of May, NDVI was above the average or even close to the highest level of the same period in the last 5 years, despite low temperatures. In the second half of May, rainfall was significantly below average, which may have caused drought conditions resulting in below average NDVI trends and negatively impacting the grain filling of wheat. 

The NDVI departure clustering map shows that NDVI for about 30.6% of crops (marked as "red", mainly distributed in the southeast of Poland) were above average till the second half of May and then quickly dipped below average but slowly recovered in July. The summer crops may have benefitted from the above average rainfall in late June and July.  Moreover, 37.0% of crops (marked as "orange" and "blue") were above average before late May, and then dropped significantly. The remaining 32.3% of the arable crops (marked "dark green" and "light green") was below average throughout the period.

CALF reached 100% and VCIx was 0.85. Crops with VCIx values between 0.5 and 0.8 were widely distributed throughout the country, with the exception of the southeast. CPI was 1.03.

Overall, due to the rainfall deficit lasting from mid May to mid June, crop conditions were below average.

Regional analysis

Four agro-ecological zones (AEZ) are examined more closely below (shown by Figure (c)  Maximum VCI). They include the Northern oats and potatoes areas (163, the northern half of west Pomerania, eastern Pomerania and Warmia-Masuria), the Northern-central wheat and sugar-beet area (162, Kuyavia-Pomerania to the Baltic Sea), the Central rye and potatoes area (161, Lubusz to South Podlaskie and northern Lublin), and the Southern wheat and sugar-beet area (164) from southern Lower Silesia to southern Lublin and Subcarpathia along the Czech and Slovak borders. The listed administrative units correspond to the Voivodeships.

Compared to the average for the same period of the last 15 years, the Northern oats and potatoes areas had 24% lower RAIN, 0.1°C higher TEMP, and 1% lower RADPAR. The rainfall deficit caused 13% lower BIOMSS. CALF in the region was 100% and VCIx was 0.81. Crop growth in the region was below average from late May to July. CPI was 0.97. Crop production is expected to be slightly below average.

Rainfall in the Northern-central wheat and sugar-beet area was 25% below the average of the last 15 years, TEMP was 0.1°C higher, while RADPAR was above average by 1%, and BIOMSS was 13% lower due to the precipitation deficit. CALF was close to 100% and VCIx was 0.81. NDVI in this subregion was significantly lower than the average of the same period from late May to July. CPI was 0.98. Crop conditions were  slightly below average.

Compared to the 15-year average, all the agrometeorological indicators in the Central rye and potatoes area were lower, including 22% lower RAIN, 0.2°C lower TEMP, 2% lower RADPAR and 11% lower BIOMSS. CALF in this region reached 100%, and VCIx was 0.84. NDVI was above the average of the last five years in April and early May, but slowly decreased to below average from late May to July. CPI was 1.03. All in all, the crop condition were slightly unfavorable. 

In the Southern wheat and sugar-beet area, the smallest rainfall deficit (-14%) was observed. TEMP was also 0.7°C lower than the 15YA. Combined with a 3% lower RADPAR, this led to a 5% lower BIOMSS. CALF in this zone was 100% and VCIx was 0.90. In contrast to the other three subregions, NDVI in this zone was close to average from late May to July. CPI was 1.08. Crop conditions were normal and  average yield levels can be expected for this region. 

Figure 3.37 Poland's crop condition, April – July 2023

图.X 4_7_POL

图.X Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

图.X Maximum VCI

图.X Spatial distribution of NDVI profiles

图.X Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

图.X Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

图.X Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

图.X Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

图.X Time series rainfall pofile

图.X Time series temperature pofile

Table 3.64. Poland agroclimatic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April - July 2023

Table 3.65. Poland agronomic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's values and departure from 5YA, April - July 2023