In Russia, the period from April to July is a time of active crop growth. At the end of July, winter crops are harvested in many regions, and spring crops reach their peak.

According to national data, NDVI from April to mid-May stayed close to the 5-year average and the previous year's level, then dropped below these two levels. Precipitation from April until June was mainly below the 15-year average, except at the end of April and from the end of June through July, when it was slightly above that level. Temperatures were mostly close to the 15-year average and last year's levels, except in the beginning and middle of June as well as in the middle of July when they reached the 15-year maximum.

NDVI departure varied among the regions. Among the main crop production regions, South Caucasus and North Caucasus regions showed mainly positive NDVI departures. In parts of Central Russia and the Central Black Soil region, NDVI closely followed the trend line until the end of June and then showed a positive departure.  In the Middle Volga region, the situation was mixed. Western and southern parts of the region followed the same pattern as the South Caucasus and North Caucasus regions, while the south-eastern part of the region demonstrated negative NDVI departures. The rest of the regions demonstrated mainly negative NDVI departures.

In major winter crop production regions, such as Central Russia, the Central Black Soil Region, the North and South Caucasus, and the Middle Volga, VCIx values range mainly from 0.5 to 1. VCIx in the rest of the regions ranged mostly from 0.5 to 0.8.

Overall, considering NDVI and agroclimatic conditions we expect the yield of winter crops to be close or slightly below the 5-year average and the level of the previous year. The conditions for the crops planted in the spring are slightly less favorable. Yields may stay below  the 5-year average and the previous year's level.

Regional analysis

South Caucasus (176)

All agroclimatic indicators were below the 15-year average. Rainfall was down by 12%, temperature by 0.7°C, RADPAR by 1% and BIOMASS by 4%. CALF was by 1% below the 5-year average. VCIx was 0.86. CPI was 1.07. NDVI was mainly close the 5-year average, except at the end of May when it was below these two levels.

Based on NDVI, the winter wheat yield is expected to be close to the last year and to the 5-year average. There is small spring wheat acreage in the region, but its yield is expected to be close to the average as well as the maize yield.

North Caucasus (174)

Rainfall was 16% above the 15-year average. Temperatures and RADPAR were by 0.7°C and 7% below the 15-year average respectively. BIOMASS was by 7% above the 15-year average. CALF was 1% above the 5-year average. VCIx was 0.87. CPI was 1.11. From mid-April to mid-May, NDVI was close to the 5-year maximum, then it dropped to the 5-year average.

According to NDVI, winter wheat yield is expected to be close to the 5-year average or above it. Spring wheat is scarce in the region, but its yield is also expected to be at a 5-year average. The maize yield is also expected to be at or close to the 5-year average.

Central Russia (169)

All agroclimatic indicators were below the 15-year average. Rainfall was down by 31%, temperature by 0.2°C, RADPAR  by 1% and BIOMASS by 20%.  CALF was equal to the 5-year average. VCIx was 0.93. CPI was 1.10. NDVI was close to the 5-year average and the level of the previous year till mid-May, then it dropped below two these levels.

Based on NDVI, the yield of winter wheat is likely to be at the level of the last year, and spring wheat and maize lower than last year.

Central Chernozemic region (170)

Precipitation was 3% higher than the 15-year average. The rest of the agroclimatic indicators were below the 15-year average. Temperature was down by  0.7°C, RADPAR  by 6% and BIOMASS by 5%. CALF was equal to the 5-year average. VCIx was 0.96. CPI was 1.11. NDVI was mostly close to the 5-year average and the previous year's level except for the period from mid-May to mid-June when it was below those two levels.

Due to unfavourable agroclimatic conditions winter and spring wheat yield is expected to be slightly below the last year's level and the 5-year average. According to the NDVI, maize yield is expected to be equal to last year's level and equal to the average.

Middle Volga (173)

Temperatures were by 0.5°C above the 15-year average, while the rest of the agroclimatic indicators were below the 15-year average. Atmospheric precipitation was down by 16%, RADPAR by 2% and BIOMASS by 9%.  CALF was by 2% below the 5-year average. VCIx was 0.87. CPI was 1.05. Till mid-May, NDVI was close to the 5-year average and the previous year's level, then it dropped below these two levels.

  Due to precipitation shortage and higher temperatures, winter and spring wheat yield are likely to be lower than last year and 5-year the average. Maize yield is also likely to be slightly below the average.

Ural and Western Volga (178)

Rainfall and BIOMASS were below the 15-year average by 28% and 16% respectively. Temperature and RADPAR were by 1.3°C and 6% above the 15-year average, respectively. CALF was by 1% below the 5-year average. VCIx was 0.84. The NDVI was below the 5-year average and last year's level during most part of the analyzed period.

Due to increased temperatures and lack of precipitation,  winter and spring wheat and maize yield are likely to be below last year's and 5-year average.

Western Siberia (171)

Rainfall and BIOMASS decreased by 13% and 8%, respectively, compared to the 15-year average. Temperature and RADPAR were by 0.2°C and 7% above the 15-year average respectively. CALF was close to the 5-year average. VCIx was 0.81. CPI was 0.94.  NDVI was below the 5-year average and last year's value.

There are very few winter crops and maize in this region. Because of rainfall deficit and higher temperatures, spring wheat yield is expected to be below the average of last year.

Middle Siberia (172)

Precipitation, temperature, and BIOMASS were below the 15-year average. Precipitation was down by 10%,  temperature by 1.0°C and BIOMASS by 6%. RADPAR was by 1% higher than the 15-year average. CALF was close to the 5-year average. VCIx was 0.86. CPI was 1.00. NDVI was below the 5-year average and the level of the previous year.

There are no winter crops or maize grown in this region. Due to unfavorable agroclimatic conditions spring wheat yield is expected to be below the average and the last year's level.

Eastern Siberia (179)

Rainfall and BIOMASS decreased by 32% and 13 % correspondingly compared to the 15-year average. Temperature and RADPAR were higher than the 15-year average by 0.8°C and 5%, respectively. CALF was equal to the 5-year average. VCIx was 0.97. CPI was 1.15. NDVI in the period from April till the beginning of May was close the 5-year average, then it dropped below this level, but bounced back and from mid-May was close to the 5-year maximum.

In this region, only few winter and hardly any maize are grown. Spring wheat yield is expected to be above the 5-year average or close to it.

Figure 1 Russia’s crop condition. April-August -2022

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA     (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Southern Caucasus and Northern Caucasus)

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central Russia and Central Chernozemic region)

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Middle Volga and Ural and western Volga region)

(i)            Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in the Eastern Siberia and the Middle Siberia

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Western Siberia)

(h) Rainfall index

(i)            Temperature index

Table 1. Russia’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions. Current season’s values and departure from 15YA. April-July 2023

Table 2. Russia’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions. Current season’s values and departure from 5YA. April-July 2023