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Authors: 超级管理员 | Edit: tianfuyou
In Ukraine, maize and sunflower sowing took place in May and winter wheat harvest started in July during this monitoring period (April to July).
At the national level, CropWatch observed that all agroclimatic indicators were lower than the 15YA. There was a 7% reduction in both rainfall (288 mm) and radiation (1150 MJ/m2), and the temperature (15.4 ℃) was 0.6 ℃ lower as compared to the 15YA. Based on these climatic conditions, potential biomass was predicted 6% below 15YA. In agronomic aspects, nearly all cropland was cultivated (CALF 100%) despite the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the maximum vegetation condition index (VCIx) reached a favorable value of 0.91.
The national NDVI based crop development profile was generally close to the 5YA. A slight decrease of NDVI was detected in May and June, which might be attributed to the lack of rainfall, only 1/6 and 1/3 of 15YA rainfall were received in mid May and early June, respectively. As shown by the spatial NDVI patterns, NDVI in 83% of the cropland was above or closed to 5YA at the end of this period, while the remaining 17% area was mainly distributed in southern Ukraine such as Kherson and Odessa oblast. In line with the NDVI patterns, VCIx maps confirmed the poorer crop conditions (0.5-0.8 of VCIx) in the Kherson region, which is the front line of the war between Russia and the Ukraine.
To sum up, the general conditions for winter wheat were slightly below, but close to normal, while the production of maize might be reduced due to the war and the destruction of the Kakhova dam.
Regional analysis
Regional analyses are provided for four agro-ecological zones (AEZ) defined by their cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions. They are referred to as Central wheat area (195) with the Poltava, Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk and Kirovohrad Oblasts; Eastern Carpathian hills (196) with Lviv, Zakarpattia and Ivano-Frankivsk Oblasts; Northern wheat area (197) with Rivne and Southern wheat and maize area (198) with Mykolaiv, Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts.
During this monitoring period, three of four AEZs including Central wheat area, Eastern Carpathian hills and Northern wheat area shared generally similar patterns in agroclimatic and agronomic conditions, as well as NDVI based crop development curves. All agroclimatic indexes were lower than the 15YA. A rainfall deficit by 13% to 21% was recorded for the Central wheat area and Eastern Carpathian hills. Temperatures were also cooler by 0.6 ℃ for all AEZs; radiation decreased by 4% (Eastern Carpathian hills) to 9% (Central wheat area). As a result of poorer agroclimatic conditions in these three AEZs, potential biomass was predicted to be 10% (Northern wheat area) to 12% (Central wheat area) lower than the 15YA. NDVI based crop development curves were generally below 5YA during May and June in these AEZs, mainly due to the below average rainfall in the two months. CALF reached 100% and VCIx had favorable values from 0.9 to 0.92, which indicates good prospects for winter wheat in these AEZs. Cropped area (CALF) in this season was up to 14% above average, and VCIx values were around 0.81 to 0.9. The crop production index ranged from 1.01 to 1.23, suggesting a normal agricultural production, whereas the NDVI development graph trended near last year's and the 5 year average. All in all, crop conditions indicated close to normal prospects for winter wheat.
Unlike above AEZs, southern wheat and maize area received sufficient rainfall (293mm, +12%), which led to normal potential biomass under cooler temperature (16.6℃, -0.7℃) and lower radiation (1186 MJ/m2, -8%) conditions. The NDVI in the southern wheat and maize area was fluctuating near the 5YA, but the VCIx was the lowest of the four AEZs. Additional attention should paid to this AEZ, which covers the frontline of the war.
Figure 3.43 Ukraine's crop condition, April – July 2023
(a) Phenology of major crops
(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI
(c) Maximum VCI
(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA (e) NDVI profiles
(f) Time series rainfall profile
(g) Time series temperature profile
(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central wheat area)
(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Eastern Carpathian hills)
(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Northern wheat area)
(k) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Southern wheat and maize area)
Table 3.78 Ukraine agro-climatic indicators by sub‐national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April – July 2023
RAIN | TEMP | RADPAR | BIOMSS | |||||
Region | Current (mm) | Departure from 15YA (%) | Current (°C) | Departure from 15YA (°C) | Current (MJ/m2) | Departure from 15YA (%) | Current (gDM/m2) | Departure from 15YA (%) |
Central wheat area | 263 | -13 | 15.4 | -0.6 | 1134 | -9 | 744 | -12 |
Eastern Carpathian hills | 333 | -21 | 13.7 | -0.6 | 1171 | -4 | 824 | -11 |
Northern wheat area | 282 | -14 | 14.6 | -0.6 | 1107 | -7 | 774 | -10 |
Southern wheat and maize area | 293 | 12 | 16.6 | -0.7 | 1186 | -8 | 808 | 1 |
Table 3.79 Ukraine agronomic indicators by sub‐national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, April – July 2023
CALF | Maximum VCI | ||
Region | Current | Departure from 5YA (%) | Current |
Central wheat area | 100 | 0 | 0.90 |
Eastern Carpathian hills | 100 | 0 | 0.92 |
Northern wheat area | 100 | 0 | 0.92 |
Southern wheat and maize area | 100 | 1 | 0.89 |