The reporting period began in April and ended in July. This is the most critical growing period for most crops, with winter wheat starting to mature in May in the South. Planting of maize, soybeans and spring wheat was completed in May. By the end of July, maize was tasselling and soybeans were flowering and podding. Spring wheat will be harvested in August. Overall, the crop conditions gradually recovered to average levels by the end of July.

Nationally, rainfall during the observation period was 12% below the 15-year average (15YA), the temperature was near normal (TEMP +0.0°C), and radiation was 2% below average. The rainfall time series showed that the weather was dry during the observation period, in particular in late May and early June, which was unfavorable for crop establishment. The temperature time series was close to normal, although the temperatures were considerably warmer in May and late July. Areas from Kansas to South Dakota and the Corn Belt suffered severe rainfall deficits, such as Kansas (-28%), Nebraska (-34%), South Dakota (-24%), Illinois (-40%), Indiana (-39%), Iowa (-23%), Minnesota (-21%), Ohio (-25%) and North Dakota (-25%). These regions are major producers of corn, soybeans, and spring wheat. More rainfall will be required in the upcoming weeks to ensure high production levels. The potential biomass revealed the negative effect of rainfall deficit on biomass. On a national level, potential biomass was 8% below the 15-year average. The departure in potential biomass was 20% less than average in the corn belt and northern plain.

The VCIx indicated that the lack of rainfall has had a slightly adverse impact on the crop conditions. They remained near average or above-average levels in almost all regions, except for the Southern Plains, where they were poor. NDVI departure cluster indicated that crops in the northern Southern Plains, the Northwest region, and the Corn Belt had poor conditions before July and then recovered to average levels at the end of July. Below average temperature was responsible for poor crop condition in the Northwest region that delayed the planting of crops. CALF was 92% which is 2% above the 5-year average. The maximum VCI (VCIx) was 0.89 and the Crop Production Index was 1.10, indicating normal crop growth during this reporting period.

In short, CropWatch assessed that nationwide agricultural production was close to average during the monitoring period. CropWatch will closely monitor the impact of significant rainfall shortage on crop suitation during the next monitoring period because the summer crops will soon enter the critical stage of yield formation.

Figure 3.42 United States crop condition, April to July 2023

a Phenology of United States from April to July 2023

b Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

c Time series rainfall profile

d Time series temperature profile

e Maximum VCI

f Spatial distribution of NDVI profiles

Regional Analysis

Summer crops are mainly planted in the Corn Belt (202), Northern Plains (204), Lower Mississippi (203), Southern Plains (207), Southeast (208) and Northwest (206). Due to differences in agro-climate, agronomic condition and irrigation infrastructure, the growth conditions are highly heterogeneous spatially.

(1) Corn Belt

The Corn Belt is the major corn and soybean producing region in the United States. It covers Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Michigan. During this period, agro-climatic conditions in the Corn Belt were dominated by a rainfall deficit, with rainfall 28% below 15YA while temperature and radiation were above average (TEMP +0.4°C, RADPAR +1%). The previous period showed that the Corn Belt had a wetter and cooler spring than normal, which lessened the impact of the rainfall deficit observed during this period on crop growth. The water shortage caused a reduction in biomass below the 15YA average (-13%). However, the NDVI development profile showed that crop conditions in the Corn Belt were approaching average levels by the end of July. From late May through early July, continued below-normal precipitation in the Corn Belt caused crop conditions to slightly negatively depart from the long-term trend. They improved to normal levels as July rainfall returned to average levels. The CALF reached 100% during the monitoring period, the VCIx reached 0.93 and the Crop Production Index was 1.11, confirming the improving crop conditions during the monitoring period. August is the critical month for the yield formation of maize and soybean. CropWatch will pay close attention to changes in the agricultural climate and conditions in the region.

g. Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, Time series precipitation profile and temperature profile(The Corn Belt)

(2) Northern Plains

The Northern Plains is the largest spring wheat producer in the United States and a major maize producer. It includes parts of North Dakota, South Dakota, and Nebraska. During the observation period, rainfall and radiation in the Northern Plains were 11% and 2% below the 15YA, while temperature was above average (TEMP +0.4°C), the shortage of rainfall and radiation caused a reduction in Biomass Production Potential  to below average levels (-6%). Significantly above average rainfall was observed in the Northern Plains from mid-May to mid-June, providing the necessary soil moisture for crop growth, leading to above average crop conditions. The CALF reached to 94% which is above average (CALF +9%). The VCIx was 0.89, and the Crop Production Index was 1.12, indicating that crop conditions reached an average level. From mid-June, the region experienced continuous rainfall deficits. However, due to adequate soil moisture that had accumulated by then, crop conditions still reached 5YA  levels in July, but more rainfall will be needed in August to ensure that soybean and maize yields to remain at relatively high levels.

h. Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, Time series precipitation profile and temperature profile (The Northern Plains).

(3) Lower Mississippi

This is the largest producer of rice in the United States and a major producer of soybeans. It includes Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi and part of Missouri. Rice reached the tillering stage in July. During the reporting period, the region experienced dry agro-climatic conditions, with rainfall and radiation 16% and 3% below average, respectively, and temperature 0.2 above average, resulting in a 7% reduction in potential biomass. Thanks to the region's well-developed irrigation infrastructure, crop conditions were little affected by the lack of rainfall. Overall crop growth conditions reached average levels with 100% of CALF, 1.13 of CPI and 0.92 of VCIx.

i. Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, Time series precipitation profile and temperature profile(The Lower Mississippi)

(4) Southern Plains

The Southern Plains are the major producers of winter wheat, sorghum and cotton, covering Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas and eastern Colorado. By late June, the winter wheat harvest was complete and sorghum and cotton were entering their peak growing season in July. CropWatch agro-climatic indicators show that precipitation and radiation were 5% and 4% below 15YA, respectively, while temperature was 0.1°C above average, resulting in a 6% reduction in biomass production potential. Significant rainfall deficits occurred mainly at the end of June. CALF reached 88% during the period, 5% higher than 5YA. The VCIx was 0.88 and the Crop Production Index was 1.08, indicating average crop conditions. In summary, CropWatch estimates that crop production in the region will reach average levels.

j. Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, Time series precipitation profile and temperature profile (The Southern Plains).

(5) Southeast region

The Southeast region is a major producer of cotton and corn and includes Georgia, Alabama and North Carolina. The NDVI development profile indicated that crop conditions were close to average. Compared to the last 15YA, rainfall (RAIN -3%), temperature (TEMP -0.1°C) and radiation (RADPAR -3%) were slightly below average. Rainfall deficits occurred mainly in May, but were compensated for in mid-June to early July, while air temperatures remained consistently below average from late May to July. Crop conditions declined to slightly below average levels from May onwards. Compared to the 5-year average, CALF and VCIx reached 100% and 0.90, respectively, and the Crop Production Index was 1.08, indicating acceptable crop conditions. In summary, CropWatch expects yields in the region to reach average levels.

k. Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, Time series precipitation profile and temperature profile(The Southeast region)

(6) Northwest

The North West region is the second largest producer of winter wheat, but is also an important producer of spring wheat. During the reporting period, winter wheat matured and was harvested before the end of July. The NDVI development profile indicated poor crop condition, which was attributed to delayed planting due to unfavorable weather in the previous reporting period. Agroclimatic conditions were mild and humid, with rainfall and temperature 12% and 0.3°C above average, respectively, while radiation was 3% below average. Compared to 5YA, CALF (82%) was 2% below average. The VCIx reached 0.81 and the Crop Production Index was only 0.94, indicating poor crop conditions during the period. In summary, CropWatch judged crop production in the region to be below average.

l. Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, Time series precipitation profile and temperature profile(The Northwest region)

Table 3.75.United States' agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April - July 2023

Table 3.76. United States’agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure, October April - July 2023