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UzbekistanMain producing and exporting countries

Authors: 超级管理员 | Edit: tianfuyou

This monitoring period from April to July 2023 covers the late growing period and harvest stage of winter wheat in Uzbekistan, as well as the sowing stage and early growth period of maize. The proportion of irrigated cropland in Uzbekistan is 30% and regular rainfall is crucial to sustain the growth of most crops. Among the CropWatch agroclimatic indicators, the radiation (RADPAR) and temperature (TEMP) were slightly above average (+1% and +0.6°C), while rainfall (RAIN) was below average (-52%) compared to the 15-year average (15YA). The precipitation was significantly below the 15YA, except for the beginning of April. The temperature was generally close to the 15YA, but was higher than average in early June and late July. The biomass accumulation (BIOMSS) decreased by 14% compared to the 15YA. At the national level, the NDVI development graph indicates that besides April (close to the 5YA), the crop conditions were significant below the five-year average in this monitoring period.

 

The maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx) was 0.71, whereas the areas with low VCIx values were mainly in the southwest of the Eastern hilly cereals zone and the northwest of the Aral Sea cotton zone. The cropped arable land fraction (CALF, 61%) decreased by 13% compared to its five-year average. The NDVI departure cluster profiles indicate that: (1) 36.5% of arable land (green) showed generally normal but slightly unfavorable conditions in this monitoring period, mainly in the west and south of the country. (2) 18.4% of arable land (blue), mainly in the central area of the Eastern hilly cereals, had much better crop conditions than average in April and May, but turns to unfavorable conditions in June and July. (3) 19.1% of arable land (orange) had unfavorable conditions during April to June, but returned to the average level in July. (4) 26% of arable land (red) had slightly better conditions in April, while unfavorable conditions than average in the rest of the monitoring period. The crop production index (CPI) was 0.79. Prospects for crop production are estimated to be unfavorable.

 

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, three sub-national agro-ecological regions (AEZ) can be distinguished for Uzbekistan: Central region with sparse crops (210), Eastern hilly cereals zone (211), and Aral Sea cotton zone (212).

In the Central region with sparse crops, the NDVI development graph shows that the crop conditions were generally below average. RAIN and RADPAR were below average (-40% and -1%), while TEMP was slightly above average (+0.9°C). The VCIx was 0.72 and BIOMSS decreased by 6% compared to the 15YA. The CALF was 71%, which was slightly increased by 4% compared to the 5YA. The agro-climatic conditions of this region were unfavorable.

In the Eastern hilly cereals zone, RAIN was below average (-53%), while RADPAR and TEMP were slightly above average (+2% and +0.5°C). The CALF was 63% and decreased by 12% compared to the 5YA.  The average VCIx index was 0.69. The NDVI-based crop condition development graph shows that the crop conditions were significantly below the five-year average in this monitoring period. The BIOMSS decreased by 16%. The prospects for crop production were unfavorable.

In the Aral Sea cotton zone, RAIN and RADPAR were below average (-23% and -4%), while TEMP was slightly above average (+1.0°C). These agroclimatic conditions resulted in a slight decrease in BIOMSS (-5%) in this AEZ. The CALF(50%) decreased by 15% compared to the 5YA and the maximum VCI index was 0.79. The agro-climatic conditions of this region were slightly unfavorable.


Figure 3.5 Uzbekistan’s crop condition, April - July 2023

(a) Phenology of major crops

   

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                                        (c)  Maximum VCI   


(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                                                (e) NDVI profiles 

    

(f) Rainfall profiles                                                                (g) Temperature profiles

   

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI of Central region with sparse crops (left) and Eastern hilly cereals region (right)


                                         

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI of Aral Sea cotton region


Table 3.2 Uzbekistan’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 15YA, April - July  2023

Region

RAIN

TEMP

RADPAR

BIOMSS

Current (mm)

Departure (%)

Current (°C)

Departure (°C)

Current (MJ/m2)

Departure (%)

Current (gDM/m2)

Departure    (%)

Central region with

sparse crops

27

-40

26.0

0.9

1544

-1

573

-6

Eastern hilly cereals

zone

74

-53

22.5

0.5

1594

2

592

-16

Aral Sea cotton zone

21

-23

26.2

1.0

1485

-4

554

-5

 

Table 3.3 Uzbekistan’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, April - July  2023

Region

Cropped arable land fraction

Maximum VCI

Current (%)

Departure (%)

Current

Central region with

sparse crops

71

4

0.72

Eastern hilly cereals

zone

63

-12

0.69

Aral Sea cotton zone

50

-15

0.79