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Authors: 超级管理员 | Edit: tianfuyou
From April to July, soybean and maize are the main crops being produced. In the east, maize harvest started in May, whereas in the west, it started one month later. Soybean harvest began in April and wheat planting in May. According to the agroclimatic indicators, South Africa experienced drier and hotter than usual weather in this monitoring period with below-average rainfall (RAIN -8%), above-average temperature (TEMP +0.4°C), as well as average sunshine (RADPAR 0%). All these indicators led to below-average biomass (BIOMSS -3%).
Based on the NDVI development graph, the crop conditions were below average before early June, after which they improved. This was mainly due to a spell of hot and dry weather in early May, followed by an increase in rainfall that progressively boosted crop conditions to reach near or above average. According to the NDVI departure clustering map, about 32.3% of the cropland was below average before mid-May and gradually improved to above average, mainly in the central and northern parts. Around 45.1% of the cropped area, mainly located in the central and southwestern parts, was consistently below average during the whole monitoring period. For the remaining 22.5% of the area, crop conditions were above-average in the entire monitoring period. Among these, 4.9% of the area experienced a decline in early July, primarily due to reduced rainfall. Water is generally limiting crop production in South Africa. Its government has developed several large water facilities, which have increased the irrigated area of the country by 40%, and the yield of crops has generally increased in recent years.
At the national level, most arable land was cropped during the season (CALF +88%), and VCIx was around 0.85. The Crop Production Index (CPI) in South Africa is 0.97. CropWatch estimates that the crop conditions were average, but favorable for wheat in the Mediterranean zone.
Regional analysis
The regional analysis below focuses on the major agro-ecological zones of South Africa, which are mostly based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topography. Agro-ecological zones include the Arid and desert zones (221), the Humid Cape Fold mountains (222), the Mediterranean zone (223), and the Dry Highveld and Bushveld maize areas (224).
For the Arid and desert zones, the agroclimatic indicators show that rainfall was significantly above average (RAIN +20%), the temperature (TEMP -0.5°C) and radiation (RADPAR -2%) were slightly below-average , which resulted in above-average biomass (BIOMSS +5%). According to the NDVI development graph, the crop conditions were generally below-average before early-June. However, crop conditions subsequently reached the 5-year average and even above the 5-year maximum in the remaining duration of the monitoring period. The VCIx was 0.82. Crop production is expected to be above-average.
In the Humid Cape Fold mountains, the temperature (TEMP +0.2°C) was slightly above-average, while rainfall (RAIN -3%) and radiation (RADPAR -1%) were below-average. These conditions led to a below-average estimate for BIOMSS (BIOMSS -2%). According to the NDVI development graph, crop conditions were below average until mid-June, followed by an increase and almost reached the 5-year maximum. The VCIx was 0.89. Overall, crop conditions were generally normal.
In the Mediterranean zone, the temperature (TEMP -1.7°C) and radiation (RADPAR -7%) were below average, accompanied by higher rainfall (RAIN +38%). Notably, during this monitoring period, the area was in the rainy season. The estimated potential biomass (BIOMSS +11%) was significantly increased by 11% due to sufficient rainfall. According to the NDVI development graph, crop conditions were notably above average, even surpassing the 5-year maximum except towards the end of July. The VCIx was 0.94. Crop conditions were favorable during the whole monitoring period in this important wheat production region.
In the Dry Highveld and Bushveld maize areas, the agroclimatic indicators show that the rainfall (RAIN -29%) was significantly below-average, accompanied by above-average temperature (TEMP +0.7°C) and radiation (RADPAR +1%). Potential biomass (BIOMSS -10%) decreased by 10%. According to the NDVI development graph, crop conditions were below average until mid-June, and then approached average. The VCIx was 0.83. In all, the crop conditions were below-average.
Figure 3.45 South Africa's crop condition, April - July 2023
(a) Phenology of the main Crop
(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (c) Maximum VCI
(d) Rainfall index (e) Temperature index
(f) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA (g) NDVI profiles
(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI Arid and desert zones (left) and Humid Cape Fold mountains (right)
(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI Dry Highveld and Bushveld maize areas (left) and Mediterranean zone (right)
Table3.81 South Africa's agro-climatic indicators by sub‐national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April - July 2023
Region | RAIN | TEMP | RADPAR | BIOMSS | ||||
Current(mm) | Departure from 15YA(%) | Current(°C) | Departure from 15YA(°C) | Current(MJ/m2) | Departure from 15YA(%) | Current(gDM/m2) | Departure from 15YA(%) | |
Arid and desert zones | 96 | 20 | 11.9 | -0.5 | 803 | -2 | 335 | 5 |
Humid Cape Fold mountains | 131 | -3 | 14.7 | 0.2 | 779 | -1 | 431 | -2 |
Mediterranean zone | 344 | 38 | 11.4 | -1.7 | 637 | -7 | 624 | 11 |
Dry Highveld and Bushveld maize areas | 47 | -29 | 12.9 | 0.7 | 929 | 1 | 267 | -10 |
Table3.82 South Africa's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departures from 5YA, April - July 2023
Region | CALF | Maximum VCI | |
Current(%) | Departure from 5YA(%) | Current | |
Arid and desert zones | 39 | -18 | 0.82 |
Humid Cape Fold mountains | 98 | 1 | 0.89 |
Mediterranean zone | 89 | 4 | 0.94 |
Dry Highveld and Bushveld maize areas | 88 | -1 | 0.83 |