As shown on the penology map, the main crops in Syria include wheat and barley. During the current reporting period from April to July, both barley and wheat were in their respective grain filling stage, and reached maturity in May and June. The proportion of cropland (rain-fed and irrigated) in Syria is about 32.8% and regular rainfall is crucial for crop growth because of most of the cropland in Syria is rain-fed.

Compared to the 15-year average, accumulated rainfall was less than average (RAIN -36%) and radiation was also less than average (RADPAR -2.6%). The temperature was above average (TEMP +0.43°C). The average temperature value for the reporting period was 24.3°C. The temperature was generally above average except in early May and Mid-June. The irregular rain, especially in irrigated land in the second and third regions, which also depend on supplemental irrigation, resulted in a decrease of BIOMSS by 6%. According to the NDVI profiles, the national average NDVI values were above the 5YA during the grain filling periods of barley and wheat in April. The national average VCIx was 0.66 and CALF was above average by 17%. All in all, the rainfall deficit of around 36% caused less than favorable conditions for cereal production. Nevertheless, the agronomic indicators, as well as the NDVI trend curves, indicate close to average conditions.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, five sub-national agro-ecological regions can be distinguished for Syria, among which three are relevant for crop cultivation: The first (a) (220) and first (b) region (221), the second region (222), the third (223) and the fourth region (219).

In the first two regions (a and b), the accumulated precipitation was less than average in both regions, and the temperatures were near average. The RADPAR was below average. The shortage in rainfall resulted in a decrease of BIOMSS by 9% to 13%, while the national average VCIx values were not higher than 0.82 for the two regions. Compared to the other regions, the higher CALF values indicated more agricultural activities in this region; for the a) region, it was above its 5YA by 1% and for the b) region, it was up by 5%.
According to NDVI profiles of the two regions, crop conditions were close to the 5YA.
Agro-climatic conditions in the second, third and fourth region were also close to the 5YA. The rainfall was below average by more than 26%, whereas the temperature was above average and RADPAR was below average. The low rainfall led to a decrease in potential biomass by at least 6%. The CALF values in the three regions increased significantly by more than 14%. The average VCIx value in the second region, the third region and the fourth region were 0.65, 0.57 and 0.56. According to NDVI profiles of the three regions, crop conditions were close to the 5YA except for April for 2, 3, 4 zones and May for zone 4.

Figure 1. Syria’s crop condition, April – July 2023

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Rainfall profiles 

(e) Temperature profiles

(f) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                         (g) NDVI profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (The first (a) region)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (The first (b) region)

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (The second region)

(k) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (The third region)

(l) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (The fourth region)

(m) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Badia region)

Table 1. Syria agro climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from April-July 2023

Table 2. Syria, agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, April-July 2023