After a brief overview of the agro-climatic and agronomic conditions in China over the reporting period (section 4.1), Chapter 4 then presents China's crop prospects (section 4.2), describes the situation by region, focusing on the seven most productive agro-ecological regions of the east and south: Northeast China, Inner Mongolia, Huanghuaihai, Loess region, Lower Yangtze, Southwest China, and Southern China (section 4.3). Section 4.4 describes trade prospects of major cereals and soybean. Additional information on the agro-climatic indicators for agriculturally important Chinese provinces is listed in table A.11 in Annex A.

4.1 Overview

Most of the summer crops, such as semi-late rice, maize, and soybean, were in the field during the reporting period. This period also covers the harvest of early rice and winter wheat. The sowing of late rice was completed in July. The agro-climatic conditions were near average, with rainfall below average (-10%), temperature (+0.5°C) and RADPAR (+1%) slightly above average. On the combined effects of agroclimatic indicators, BIOMSS was close to the 15YA. National crop area land fraction (CALF) was average, the national maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx) was 0.88, and the national Crop Production Index (CPI) was 1.06, indicating an overall favorable crop condition.

According to the time series rainfall profile, above-average rainfall was observed nationwide in early April and late July. Three of the main agricultural regions of China recorded above-average rainfall, with the largest positive departure occurring in Huanghuaihai (+27%), while another three regions recorded below-average rainfall, with the largest negative departure occurring in southern China (-21%).  At the country level, rainfall anomalies fluctuated largely over time and space. As can be seen from the spatial distribution of rainfall profiles, 68.3% of the cropped areas (marked in blue) recorded near-average precipitation. 18% of the cropped areas (marked in deep green) experienced slightly below average rainfall during most of the monitoring period, mainly distributed in some parts of Yunnan, Guizhou, Guangdong, Guangxi, Fujian, and Jiangxi. The remaining 13.8% of the cropped areas (marked in light green), mainly located in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, northern Henan, Taiwan, and some parts ofeastern Lower Yangtze region, received around average rainfall except for late July. As influenced by the super typhoon Doksuri, extreme rainfall (more than 135mm/dekad) fell over the Lower Yangtze region and Huanghuaihai in late July, causing some damage to maize and other summer crops. Fujian and Hebei were among the most severely affected provinces. Persistent heavy rainfall has led to flooded cropland and crop lodging. On another front, as Doksuri continued to move northward, early August witnessed extreme rainfall in North East China, causing flooding in areas such as Wuchang, Shangzhi, Mudanjiang in the central-southern part of Heilongjiang Province, and Shulan in the eastern part of Jilin Province, which had adverse effects on maize and rice, accounting for approximately 3% of the cultivated land area. Furthermore, during the maturation period of winter wheat, the persistent heavy rainfall in Henan and Anhui provinces affected the harvesting and drying of wheat, leading to the occurrence of "germinated wheat" in certain areas and a reduction in the yield of winter wheat. 

In terms of temperature conditions, all of the main agricultural regions in China recorded average to above-average temperatures, with the largest positive departure occurring in Southern China (+0.9°C). Temperatures fluctuated during the monitoring period as follows: 39.3% of the cultivated regions, marked in blue, had relatively small temperature fluctuations, with the largest absolute temperature anomalies less than 1.5℃, mainly distributed in Soouthern China and North East China. 34.1% of the cultivated regions (marked in deep green), mainly distributed in most parts of Huanghuaihai, central and northeastern Lower Yangtze region, saw above-average temperatures in the middle of April with an anomaly of more than 4.0°C. The remaining 26.6% of the cultivated areas (marked in light green) encountered the largest below-average temperatures, exhibiting an anomaly exceeding 4.5℃, mainly distributed in the Loess region, the northern part of South West China, and the northwestern part of Lower Yangtze.

When it comes to RADPAR, Huanghuaihai (-3%), Loess region (-2%), and Inner Mongolia (-1%) all had negative RADPAR anomalies, whereas the largest positive departure was recorded for southern China (+6%). As for BIOMSS, the situation was quite different among all the main producing regions, with departures between -5% (Inner mongolia) and +11% (Huanghuaihai). With regard to VHIn, high values (above 35%) were widespread in China, indicating limited water deficit effects on most of the summer crops. CALF was average in all of the main agricultural regions as compared to the 5YA. The VCIx values were higher than 0.8 in almost all the main producing regions of China, with values between 0.83 (Huanghuaihai) and 0.94 (North East China), except for Inner Mongolia (0.79).

Table 4.1 CropWatch agro-climatic and agronomic indicators for China, April to July 2023, departure from 5YA and 15YA

Figure 4.1 China crop calendar

Figure 4.2 China spatial distribution of rainfall profiles, April-July 2023

Figure 4.3 China spatial distribution of temperature profiles, April-July 2023

Figure 4.4 China cropped and uncropped arable land, by pixel, April-July 2023

Figure 4.5 China biomass departure map from 15YA, by pixel, April-July 2023

Figure 4.6 China maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx), by pixel, April-July 2023

Figure 4.7 China minimum Vegetation Health Index (VHIn), by pixel, April-July 2023

Figure 4.8 China time series rainfall, April-July 2023