Utilizing a comprehensive fusion of remote sensing data from diverse sources, including Fengyun-3, European Space Agency Sentinel-1/2 satellites, and the US Landsat 8 satellite, and incorporating ground-truth measurements from nearly a million sample points across major agricultural regions such as Northeast, North China, Northwest, and Southwest China, the present study undertook the monitoring of sowing areas and crop conditions for China's major staple crops in the year 2023. A meticulous analysis was conducted by integrating nationwide 10-meter resolution arable land data, agricultural meteorological information, and crop yield monitoring models. This analysis encompasses a thorough re-evaluation of the 2023 winter wheat yields and a projection for the summer grain production for key crops, including maize, rice, soybean, and autumn grains, as well as a forecast of China's aggregate annual cereal output.

(1) Annual Grain Production Forecast

The total annual grain production for the year 2023 (comprising winter cereals, summer grains, and early rice) is projected to reach 648.42 million tons, indicating an increase by 0.3% or 1.709 million tons compared to 2022 (Table 1). Notably, the top five grain-producing provinces, namely Heilongjiang, Henan, Shandong, Jilin, and Anhui, have all achieved year-on-year production increments, thus laying a robust foundation for a bountiful annual grain harvest.

Employing the latest remote sensing data, a reassessment of the total winter grain production for 2023 yields a figure of 142.405 million tons, marking a year-on-year increase by 1.79 million tons. Within this context, the increase in the planted area for winter grain is noted at 1.6% compared to the previous year. However, excessive rainfall during the maturation and harvest phase of winter crops led to a decline of 1.4% in the yield per unit area. Consequently, the total winter grain production registers a marginal increment of 0.1% year-on-year.

In the initial stages of summer grain cultivation, favorable hydrothermal conditions prevailed, and field moisture content remained conducive, resulting in superior crop growth in comparison to typical years. Nonetheless, a substantial and prolonged period of precipitation coupled with overcast skies prevailed across multiple major provinces in North China during late May to early June, coinciding with the maturation and harvest phase of winter cereals. This meteorological pattern proved unfavorable for the grain filling process of winter wheat, and the provinces of Henan and Anhui experienced prolonged precipitation during their wheat harvesting period, further contributing to the occurrence of "sprouting wheat" in certain regions. As a consequence, the yield per unit area of winter grains was compromised, exhibiting a decline of 1.4% compared to initial estimates made in May, resulting in an equivalent year-on-year drop in yield for both provinces.

The total production of early rice in 2023 is estimated at 27.393 million tons, reflecting a decrease of 1.57 million tons, corresponding to a decline of 0.6% compared to the preceding year. Within this context, the cultivated area for early rice witnessed a year-on-year reduction of 23.2 thousand hectares (approximately 348 thousand mu), marking a decrease of 0.4%. Concurrently, the average yield per unit area exhibited a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.1%.

During the initial growth stages of early rice, the synchronous occurrence of favorable rainfall and temperatures within the primary cultivation regions yielded meteorological conditions conducive to the development and yield formation of early rice. However, commencing from the middle to late June, a pronounced period of heavy rainfall prevailed over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the southern regions of China. This temporal alignment coincided with the heading and flowering phase of early rice, affecting the process of pollination and thus adversely affecting the yield formation. Additionally, during the maturation and harvest phase of early rice, the primary producing regions were affected by Typhoon "Taili", resulting in a negative effect on yield. As a result, provinces such as Guangxi, Hubei, Hunan, and Jiangxi experienced respective year-on-year declines in early rice yield by 1.1%, 4.3%, 1.8%, and 0.9%. Consequently, the nationwide average yield of early rice underwent a minor year-on-year reduction.

The aggregate production of summer crops (encompassing maize, medium-season rice, late-season rice, spring wheat, soybeans, coarse grains, and tuber crops) is projected to reach 478.621 million tons in 2023, marking an increase of 1.688 million tons, corresponding to a growth rate of 0.4% compared to 2022. Throughout the growth phase of summer crops, the agricultural meteorological conditions have, on the whole, favored crop growth and yield formation, resulting in a more favorable crop production scenario compared to the previous year.

The impact of Typhoon "Dusurei" led to the impairment of summer crops such as maize and first-season rice in certain regions within Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and parts of the Northeast. Consequently, the total summer crop production in Hebei registered a year-on-year decrease of 2.5%. However, the noticeable increase in maize planting area within the Northeastern region mitigated the effects of flood-related damage, thereby not yielding a decline in summer crop production. Simultaneously, Typhoon "Dusurei"  replenished moisture supply to major producing regions, which overall resulted in a positive net effect on the nationwide production of major summer crops such as maize and rice.

Table 1 Projected Production and Year-on-Year Changes in Major Grain-Producing Provinces for 2023

(2) Forecast for Production of Major Grain and Oil Crops

The production of major grain and oil crops in China for the year 2023, including maize, rice, wheat, and soybeans, is anticipated to be 577.465 million tons, denoting an increase of 2.555 million tons, corresponding to a growth rate of 0.4% year-on-year. Within this context, maize and wheat are expected to achieve year-on-year increases, while rice and soybeans are predicted to undergo decreases (Table 2).

China's maize cultivation area is projected to expand by 1.234 million hectares, leading to an estimated yield increase of 5.049 million metric tons. The total maize production for the year 2023 is forecasted to reach 232.24 million metric tons, representing a notable year-on-year growth rate of 2.2%. Remote sensing monitoring indicates that the maize cultivation area for China in 2023 encompasses 42.096 million hectares, demonstrating a year-on-year increase of 3.0%. Heilongjiang Province exhibits the most pronounced expansion in maize cultivation area, with an increase of 564,000 hectares year-on-year, corresponding to a concurrent reduction in soybean planting area. Likewise, Jilin Province records a year-on-year increase of 522 thousand hectares in maize cultivation area. Changes in maize cultivation area for other provinces are all below 50 thousand hectares.

Several major production regions experienced adverse agricultural weather conditions throughout the maize growing season, such as extreme high temperatures, excessive rainfall, and localized flooding. The nationwide average maize yield is projected to be 368 kilograms per mu (approximately 5,520 kilograms per ha), representing a year-on-year reduction of 0.8%. In the early to mid-July period, the Huang-Huai region of North China witnessed a phase of heatwaves, leading to the widespread rolling of maize leaves. However, due to timely irrigation practices in the region, the impact of high temperatures remained relatively limited. Towards the end of July and the beginning of August, Typhoon "Dusurei" brought about extreme heavy rainfall to areas such as Zhuozhou in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, resulting in maize damage. This contributed to a year-on-year decrease of 4.1% in the average maize yield across Hebei Province. The same typhoon induced significantly above-average precipitation in the northeastern region, affecting crops in areas such as Wuchang, Shangzhi, Mudanjiang in southern Heilongjiang Province, and Shulan in eastern Jilin Province. However, the impact on maize production in these provinces was relatively minor. While the average maize yield in Heilongjiang and Jilin experienced slight decreases of 0.2% and 0.4% year-on-year, respectively, due to increased planting area, maize production in these two provinces saw respective year-on-year increases of 8.3% and 11.3%. Overall, the impact of Typhoon "Dusurei" on the national maize production remained limited.

Impacted by the reduction in national rice planting area, the total rice production is expected to decrease by 1.988 million metric tons. The projected nationwide total rice production is 193.346 million tons, signifying a year-on-year reduction of 1.0%. Within this context, early rice is expected to decrease by 0.6% year-on-year. The production of medium-season rice/first-season rice is forecasted to be 132.069 million tons, marking a year-on-year reduction of 1.68 million tons, corresponding to a decrease of 1.3%. The projected production of late-season rice is 33.884 million tons, indicating a decrease of 151,000 tons, roughly a decline of 0.4% year-on-year.

In northern regions where first-season rice is cultivated, a period of consecutive heavy rainfall during the heading and flowering phase adversely affected pollination and yield formation of rice. Furthermore, this weather pattern led to the flooding of 207.6 thousand mu (12,800 ha) of rice fields in Heilongjiang and Jilin provinces. Consequently, rice production in Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Liaoning provinces saw respective year-on-year reductions of 0.2%, 3.4%, and 0.9%.

In the Yangtze River Basin, the agricultural weather conditions were better than the previous year, yet the reduction in planting area led to marginal year-on-year decreases in rice production for provinces such as Jiangxi, Hunan, Hubei, and Sichuan. On the other hand, Anhui and Henan provinces witnessed substantial increases in rice production, with increments of 1.57 billion catties (0.785 million tons) and 350 million catties (0.175 million tons) respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 4.9% and 4.8%.

The soybean planting area has decreased by 618,000 hectares year-on-year, leading to a projected reduction in production of 1.03 million metric tons. The total national soybean production for 2023 is estimated to be 17.156 million metric tons, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 5.7%. However, this production figure remains notably higher than that of 2021. The nationwide soybean planting area is 9,233 million hectares, which is a reduction of 618,0000 hectares (or a decrease of 6.3%) compared to 2022. Despite this reduction, it still stands as the second largest planting area since the implementation of the soybean revitalization plan. The average yield per unit area for soybeans is projected to increase by 0.7%, reaching 1,867 kilograms per hectare.

The decrease in soybean planting area in 2023 can be attributed to two main factors. Firstly, some farmers still opt to cultivate maize due to comparable profitability between soybeans and maize. Secondly, the reduction in soybean planting area is related to the annual rotation of maize and soybeans in Heilongjiang, a major soybean-producing province. The soybean planting area in Heilongjiang has decreased to 4.642 million hectares, marking a year-on-year reduction of 320,000 hectares, a decline of 6.4%. This reduction in planting area has led to a year-on-year decrease of 470,000 tons in soybean production in the province. Meanwhile, the soybean planting area in Inner Mongolia has further increased to 1.520 million hectares, representing a year-on-year increase of 34,000 hectares or 2.3%. However, due to drought conditions affecting soybean-producing regions, the yield per unit area has decreased by 2.4% year-on-year, resulting in a marginal reduction of 0.1% in soybean production for the autonomous region. Changes in soybean production for other provinces and regions are relatively minor year-on-year.

The maturation phase of winter wheat was impacted by continous rainfall, leading to the emergence of sprouted wheat and mold in some production areas, which resulted in a decrease in yield per unit area. However, the total production of wheat still increased by 525,000 tons year-on-year. By employing remote sensing data covering the entire growth cycle of wheat and ground observation data, a reassessment of the nationwide wheat production for 2023 yields a figure of 134.723 million tons, indicating a year-on-year growth rate of 0.4%. Within this context, the total winter wheat production amounts to 128.958 million tons, marking an increase of 442,000 tons, corresponding to a growth rate of 0.3%. Concurrently, the total spring wheat production is 5.765 million metric tons, reflecting an increase of 82,000 tons, denoting a growth rate of 1.4% year-on-year.

Table 2 China Corn, Rice, Wheat and Soybean Production (Tons) and Variation (%), 2023