Methodological introduction

CropWatch production estimates are based on a combination of remote-sensing models combined with CropWatch global agro-climatic and agronomic indicators as well as meteorological data from over 20,000 meteorological weather stations around the world. The major grain crops (maize, rice, wheat) and soybean production of 47 major producers and exporters are estimated and predicted from January to mid-August 2023. This assessment included remote sensing monitoring, predictions, and verification of yield for major staple crops (corn, rice, wheat, and soybean) that were either in their growing period or close to harvest. The results are as follows.

Production estimates

From April to July 2023, the world transitioned steadily from La Niña to El Niño, which brougth relief to some drought stricken regions. The occurrence of extreme events during this period was generally weaker compared to 2022, resulting in a less adverse impact on the production of crops. Remote sensing monitoring indicated that the global production of crops in 2023 reached 2.877 billion tonnes, an increase of approximately 17.1 million tonnes or about 0.60%. Specifically, maize production is projected to reach 1.072 billion tonnes, marking an increase of 26.94 million tonnes or 2.6% compared to the decreased production (1.045 billion tonnes) in 2022, yet remaining below the peak in 2021. Global rice production is estimated at 750 million tonnes, with a decrease of 4.4 million tonnes or 0.6%. Global wheat production is forecasted to be 736 million tonnes, down by 4.45 million tonnes or 0.6%. Global soybean production is anticipated to reach 319 million tonnes, reflecting a decrease of 0.99 million tonnes or 0.3% (Table 5.1).

Table 5.1  2023 cereal and soybean production estimates in million tonnes. Δ is the percentage of change in 2023 production when compared with corresponding 2022 values.

Maize: The three leading maize-producing countries experienced production increases, providing a foundation for global growth, yet maize production in 2023 remains below the peak of 2021. As the world's largest maize producer, the United States encountered cooler than usual spring temperatures during planting period, coupled with lower rainfall in late May, affecting germination and early growth. However, the overall normal rainfall since late June in the main producing regions provided suitable moisture conditions for maize production, projecting a production increase to 377.38 million tonnes, a significant increase of 13.78 million tonnes or 3.8%. Even though localized flooding occurred, China increased the maize cultivation area, with overall higher rainfall favoring maize production in the Huang-Huai-Hai region and Northeast region. Consequently, China's maize production increased to 232.24 million tonnes, an increase of 5.05 million tonnes or 2.2%. Brazil experienced a decrease in the first-season maize and an expansion of planting areas for the second-season maize. Due to improved irrigation and increased yields for the second season, Brazil's total maize production is anticipated to reach 100.68 million tonnes, reflecting a 10.3% increase. Compared to the extremely hot and dry conditions in 2022, Europe's important maize-producing countries generally enjoyed favorable weather conditions in 2023. Benefitting from overall abundant rainfall, countries like France, Hungary, Italy, Ukraine, and Russia experienced increased maize yields of 1.9%, 5.2%, 11.6%, 1.9%, and 2.3%, respectively. Ethiopia and Kenya in the Horn of Africa rebounded from drought, experiencing a significant recovery in maize production with increases of 37.6% and 20.4%, respectively. Several countries in Africa, including Nigeria, Pakistan, Mozambique, Zambia, and South Africa, as well as Mexico, witnessed varying degrees of increased maize production. Argentina, however, was affected by continuous drought, resulting in a substantial reduction in maize production by 9.6%. India's maize production was negatively affected by flooding, leading to decreased cultivation areas and yields, projecting a reduction of 9.1% to 17.11 million tonnes.

Rice: Most rice-producing countries experienced a slight decrease in rice production, resulting in a global decline of 4.4 million tonnes or 0.6%. As the world's largest rice producer, China is expected at 193.346 million tonnes, down by 1.0% due to reduced cultivation areas. Adverse weather conditions, including excessive rainfall during heading and flowering, affected both early-season and single-season rice in major producing regions and northern China. Southeast Asian countries, including Bangladesh, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, Myanmar, and Sri Lanka, experienced normal to slightly below-average rainfall during the rainy season, leading to decreased rice yields and resulting in lower rice production. However, in July, excessive rainfall occurred in Pakistan and India, leading to localized flooding. Pakistan's rice production was expected to increase by 6.8%, while India's rice production decreased slightly by 0.9%. Vietnam, Cambodia, Nigeria, and the United States saw varying degrees of increased rice production. Overall, the global rice production and supply remained stable.

Wheat: The production for major wheat-producing countries varied significantly. Agro-climatic conditions improved notably in East Africa and the Middle East, leading to increased wheat production. Conversely, South America and Australia witnessed decreased wheat production. As the world's largest wheat producer, China experienced favorable weather conditions earlier in the season, but frequent rainfall during the late grain-filling and harvest phase, resulted in a yield of 134.72 million tonnes, an increase of 0.4%, However, this is a decrease by 1.6 million tonnes compared with prediction in May. India and Pakistan experienced normal agro-climatic conditions during the wheat growth period. Due to irrigation, yields were higher compared to the extreme heat in 2022, with India's wheat planting area increasing and yielding a production increase of 4.7%. Pakistan, however, faced a yield reduction of 1.9% due to decreased cultivation areas of 4.3%. In Russia, wheat production decreased to 82.94 million tonnes, a decrease of 3.8%, primarily due to drought during May and June. The wheat production of the United States, despite experiencing unfavorable weather conditions during early growth, saw an increase of 7.9% to 55.64 million tonnes. The six largest year-on-year increases, by more than 9%, were estimated for Syria, Ethiopia, Morocco, Turkey, Iran, and Lebanon. The conditions were better than during the extreme drought year of 2022. The European countries, such as Hungary, Romania, Italy, and Ukraine saw increased wheat cultivation areas and yields, with an increase in production of 1.4%, 5.6%, 6.4%, and 5.6%, respectively. Afghanistan and Central Asian countries, including Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan, experienced a reduction in both cultivation areas and yields. In the Southern Hemisphere, Australia, Argentina, and Brazil witnessed decreased wheat production by 11.0%, 14.1%, and 3.1%, respectively, while wheat production in South Africa increased by 8.4%. While wheat production in most countries remained relatively stable, global wheat production decreased by 0.6% due to significant reductions in Argentina and Australia, even resulting in the lowest production of the past 5 years. This decline, combined with Russia's suspension of the Ukraine grain deal, has led to a tense global wheat supply situation.

Soybean: Its production increased in the Southern Hemisphere, but the situations in Brazil and Argentina varied significantly. Northern Hemisphere soybean cultivation areas decreased, resulting in an overall production reduction. Global soybean production decreased slightly by 0.3%. Continuous drought and low rainfall throughout the growing period severely impacted Argentina's soybean production, leading to a substantial reduction in both cultivation areas and yields. The soybean production decreased to 42.01 million tonnes, a reduction of up to 9.77 million tonnes, reaching the largest reduction for the past 5 years. In contrast, Brazil experienced normal rainfall, and adequate water supply during the crucial pod-filling period resulted in increased yields. As a result, Brazil's soybean production recovered to 106.61 million tonnes, an increase of 12.1%, offsetting the impact of reduced production in Argentina and resulting in an increased soybean production by a cumulative 1.71 million tonnes for Argentina and Brazil. The United States and China witnessed favorable agro-climatic conditions during the soybean growth period, with suitable moisture and temperature contributing to favorable yields. However, both countries experienced a reduction in cultivated areas, leading to production decreases of 1.2% and 5.7%, respectively. Canada and India saw increased soybean production by 3.1% and 1.0%, respectively, while Russia's soybean production slightly decreased by 0.4%. The cumulative decrease by 1.9 million tonnes in soybean production in the Northern Hemisphere exceeded the increase in the Southern Hemisphere, resulting in a global soybean production decrease to 319.06 million tonnes, a decrease of 0.3%. Overall, the global soybean supply situation remained relatively stable.