Introduction

This section covers the April-July 2023 disaster events worldwide. Among others, this section highlights the current situation of global flood events, desert locusts as well as the current food production and international food prices situation in the context of Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Global Food insecurity situation: As the global population continues to grow and environmental pressures mount, achieving and maintaining food security becomes a complex and multifaceted issue. This encompasses not only the production and distribution of food but also the stability of food systems in the face of a deadly combination of factors such as political conflicts, economic shocks, climate extremes, and soaring fertilizer prices, which are at the root of the rising numbers. Since 2022, the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic, combined with the Russia and Ukraine conflict, has pushed prices up and put food out of reach for millions of people across the world. As a result, according to the World Food Program (WFP), up to 783 million people (about one in ten of the world’s population) still go to bed hungry each night. Estimates from 73 countries also indicate that more than 345 million people (representing an increase of almost 200 million since early 2020, pre-COVID-19 levels) are facing high levels of food insecurity, and over 40 million people across 51 countries are experiencing emergency or worse levels of acute food insecurity in 2023.

1. Conflicts

Russia-Ukraine conflict: The Russia and Ukraine conflict from February 2022 resulted in trade disruptions. While global prices for food have since retreated from their peaks, they remain considerably higher compared to pre-COVID levels. This has contributed to notable domestic inflation in food prices across many countries. Amidst the ongoing conflict, pessimistic export prospects for Ukraine continues in 2023. Producers in the region continue to grapple with high fuel and input costs, and low product prices. Russia halted the Black Sea Grain Initiative as of July 17. Hence, grains cannot be shipped out of Ukraine's Black Sea ports anymore.

CropWatch's assessment of crop conditions based on NDVI profiles in this region during the April-July 2023 reporting period reveals that the conditions for wheat were relatively favorable. Although these conditions initially declined, they rebounded by the end of the reporting period, surpassing those observed during the same period in 2022, shortly after the war began. The pace at which the region recovers, along with the eventual stabilization of global market dynamics and food security implications, hinges largely on the resolution of the conflict.

Ongoing conflicts in Sudan and South Sudan: Despite the signing of a peace agreement in 2018, the situation in South Sudan has taken a concerning turn, as the number of armed groups operating within the country has increased. This escalation in conflict is compounded by the impact of climate change, which has manifested in the form of remarkably intense rainfall, further exacerbating the challenges faced by the nation. The resulting floods have uprooted communities from their homes, leaving them not only displaced but also grappling with the severe lack of essential resources, such as food and clean water. The intersection of conflict and climate-induced disasters has culminated in a deeply distressing scenario for the people of South Sudan. More than 7.8 million individuals within the country are anticipated to confront a critical deficit in meeting their basic food requirements throughout the year 2023. This figure marks a distressing escalation from the already troubling statistic of 6.3 million people who experienced food insecurity in the preceding year, 2022. The consequences of these circumstances are disheartening and shocking. These figures underscore the urgent need for comprehensive and immediate interventions, both domestically and through international aid efforts, to address the complex interplay between conflict, climate change, and the impending food crisis that South Sudan is grappling with.

The situation is also quite dire in the Sudan. In April, an armed conflict between the military and a rebel leader started. So far, it has resulted in 1.1 million refugees and 3 million internally displaced people. Rainfed crop production is limited to the period from July to October. The lack of inputs, such as seeds and fuel, disrupted the timely sowing of the crops in some regions.

2. Desert locust

During the month of April to May, the Desert Locust situation remained calm. However, the small outbreak that developed from the spring breeding in March increased in Saudi Arabia in April. By the end of April, some late hopper groups, bands, and new immature adult groups were observed. Furthermore, in Northwest Africa, there were small hopper groups and bands present in the south of the Atlas Mountains in Morocco, as well as further south in Western Sahara, and control measures were carried out.

By the end of the April-July report period, the situation remained calm (Figure 1). However, Due to the conclusion of spring breeding and management efforts in Saudi Arabia, small clusters and swarms migrated to northern Yemen and traversed the country's interior where control measures were implemented. Hopper and adult groups were addressed in the Nile Valley of Sudan, as well as along the Red Sea coastline of Eritrea, where some ventured into the highlands. Adult locusts were observed in north-eastern Ethiopia, northwestern Somalia, and the southern regions of Oman and Egypt.

 Figure 1. Desert Locust situation in July 2023

In the western sector, adult locusts were sighted in the northern Sahel of Mauritania, where the initial summer generation of hoppers emerged in the latter part of the month. A limited number of adult locusts were also noted in Niger. Spring control operations concluded in Morocco, resulting in only a small presence of adult locusts in Algeria. The onset of the southwest monsoon was experienced in the Indo-Pakistan region, where a small number of adult locusts were present.

As for the forecast, favorable rainfall is expected in the northern Sahel region from Mauritania to western Eritrea. This will lead to minor breeding activities accompanied by scattered hoppers during the months of August and September, followed by fledging after mid-September. In early August, there might be a few small clusters or swarms in northern Ethiopia. According to model predictions, limited rainfall is anticipated in the summer breeding areas of Yemen and Indo-Pakistan.

3. Floods events

China: Typhoon Doksuri and Khanun have made a powerful impact on China's north-eastern provinces: Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Liaoning. These provinces play a crucial role in China's agricultural output as they are known as the nation's main sources of grain. The increasing frequency of extreme weather events is causing serious concerns in China's agriculture sector. This trend is pushing Beijing to prioritize self-sufficiency, which has become even more important due to disruptions in the global market stemming from the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Heilongjiang's Wuchang City, renowned for producing the highest quality rice in the nation, has not been spared from the recent impact of the typhoon. China's Ministry of Emergency Management reported that flooding has affected more than 2,720 hectares (6,721 acres) of its farmland, including 2,436 hectares of rice, as of Friday. Figure 2 shows some of the impacted cropland in Shulan City, Jilin province. This continuous downpour has led to more than 15,000 hectares of productive agricultural land being submerged. Meanwhile, in the mountainous western outskirts of Beijing, an extended period of heavy rainfall has caused significant damage.

Figure 2. Impacted cropland in Shulan City, Jilin province (Source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/07/china-floods-rain-weather-deaths-jilin-province-shulan-city)

India: With data from CropWatch's agronomic indicators revealing an increase in national rainfall compared to the average of the past fifteen years by 4%, North Lakhimpur experienced a notable downpour of 164 mm within a 24-hour span by June 15th. This led to the Singra River overflowing its banks, causing flooding in Nowboicha Town within the Lakhimpur District. Substantial impacts on the lives of Indian citizens have been documented.

Given that the heavy rainfall has caused damage to recently planted crops intended for winter harvesting, India has taken the step of halting the export of non-basmati varieties of rice. The retail prices of rice have risen by 3% in June alone and by 11.5% over the past year. Considering these developments, the government aims to curb food inflation by reserving a larger portion of the grain supply for the domestic market.

4. Drought 

Situation in the Maghreb Region: The Maghreb region has been grappling with an continuing drought in recent years, and its profound repercussions are notably affecting crop yields. In contrast to historical trends, the forthcoming crop harvest in the region is anticipated to fall significantly below the established average. The intensity of the drought had escalated particularly in late March and early April, hampering the photosynthesis process of winter cereals since the flowering stage.

Afghanistan : Afghanistan has been experiencing below-normal rainfall since October 2020. These conditions have affected the accumulation of snow during the winter season, which is critical for water access during the spring and summer agricultural seasons. This persistent drought across Afghanistan is taking its toll on farmers, and its economy - a third of which is generated by agriculture, and food security. The drought situation in the country is exacerbated by climate change which leads to intensifying pressure on water resources. This situation has left nearly 20 million people in a state of food insecurity during the least productive season of 2023. However, recent reports from the WFP indicate that by October 2023, this number may decrease to 15.3 million (including 2.8 million people in Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) Phase 4 aimed at sustained humanitarian assistance.

Argentina: During the summer of 2022-20023 an unprecedented drought intensified causing extensive crop failures and a macro-economic crisis. This period of abnormally low precipitation was the outcome of a 3 consecutive La Niña events worsened by frequent and strong heatwaves. While its impact upon crop production has not been accurately estimated yet, the idea that crops were decimated by the drought is widespread. We contend that the description of the spatial variation in the drought magnitude and of its impacts upon crops contributes to identify differences in management practices and environmental factors that may improve Argentinean agriculture resilience to climate change. Therefore, here we sought to map drought severity and its impacts on extensive grain crops performance using standard satellite remote sensing products.

Our study area encompassed ca. 33 Mhas as mapped by the National Crop Type Map produced yearly by INTA. Climatological drought was characterized by means of the standard Palmer Drought Severity Index generated by the University of Idaho [1] and accessed through the Google Earth Engine platform. Agricultural drought was quantified through the ratio of evapotranspiration to potential evapotranspiration (ET:PET) taken from the MOD16A2 product at 500m and 16 days spatiotemporal resolution. Finally, the temporal dynamic of the NDVI from the MOD13A1 product was used as a proxy for crop performance. Both, ET:PET and NDVI, were standardized on a 16 day basis (i.e. 2022 observations were subtracted to the mean of 2001-2021 for that 16 days interval and divided by the standard deviation).

Preliminary results showed that the difference between 2022 and the mean of 2001-2021 PDSI averaged over all cropland area amounted to -5,48 (standard deviation: 0,25) almost doubling the -3 threshold usually assumed to represent severe to extreme drought (Figure. 3). The temporal dynamics over the year 2022 of the standardized ET:PET ratio and NDVI differed among regions. Both, agricultural drought conditions and the crop radiation interception were the lowest –except for a short summer period- in the cold southern Pampa as evidenced by the ET-PET and NDVI aggregated over the Tres Arroyos county (Figure 3).

Figure 3. Climatological drought assessed by the PDSI anomaly over overall croplands of Argentina. Insets: Standardized ET:PET and NDVI time series for 4 distinct agricultural counties.

Contrarily, Pergamino, a county located in the main agricultural area of Argentina, experienced severe reduction in crop ET and radiation interception with only a short fallow period, centered around day of year 100, of above normal conditions. The rest of the year the drought and its impacts intensified reaching -2 standard deviation from the 2001-2021 means. In turn, Rio Cuarto, one of the most important maize producing counties, displayed mild drought conditions –and its concomitant crop impacts, neither exceeded the -1 standard deviation - albeit being located to the west were precipitation are lower than Pergamino. Finally, Quimilí (Moreno) county in the warmer Santiago del Estero province, drought conditions developed over the second half of the 2022 where croplands were fallowing.

These results agree with our observations through periodic crop surveys and with recent studies. Particularly, there is evidence that the shallow water table significantly contributes to crop ET to the mid-west of the Argentinean croplands (as observed in Rio Cuarto) and thus may have alleviated the effects of low precipitation. On the other hand, in Pergamino and the surrounding counties of the Rolling Pampas cover crops as well as double cropping are frequent and may underlie the acute drought effects therein.

References: 

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/china-floods-drought-farming-wheat-climate-change-rcna96111

https://www.fao.org/ag/locusts/en/info/info/index.html

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https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/aug/02/amazon-deforestation-falls-over-60-compared-with-last-july-says-brazilian-minister

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