Bulletin

wall bulletin
Executive Summary

Authors: 超级管理员 | Edit: zenghongwei

The current CropWatch bulletin is prepared jointly by severalinstitutes of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) in collaborationwith XXX (if applicable? ) under the overall coordination of theDigital Agriculture Division of the Remote Sensing and Digital EarthInstitute (RADI). It is based mainly on geophysical data and modelsand focuses on crops that have been harvested in 2016 as well asthose that were still growing between July and October, to beharvested later this year. The bulletin is global and comprehensive;it covers prevailing weather conditions in all the countries of theworld, but pays special attention to the thirty major agriculturalcountries and China (“30+1”) , where crop condition, size ofcultivated areas and global food production is assessed with specificagronomic indicators. Together, the “30+1” make up at least 80%of the production and exports of maize, rice, wheat, and soybean. Thebulletin naturally has specific chapters about China and includessections on pests and diseases, trade and prices, next to otherdetails.

1. Globalagroclimatic patterns

Weather remains themajor single factor behind the variability of global food production.The current reporting period from July to October included severallarge coherent areas with positive and negative weather conditions.

Among the major areas with excess precipitation the first tobe mentioned is the (1) usually semi-arid Sahelian region of northernAfrica (Senegal to north Sudan), extending east into the ArabianPeninsula. (2) Several regions from western Russia toNorthern-central Europe and Greece also received precipitationamounts that are beneficial to the early crop stages of the beginningwinter crop season in the area. (3) Not unlike the previous season,vast expanses of land in and around central and southern Asiarecorded abundant precipitation when expressed against the average ofthe recent fifteen years (+67%). The area includes more than 30countries and large sub-national units; temperature wassystematically below average (-0.4 ºC) and so was radiation (-5%).It extends east as far as Shanxi and Hebei provinces in China (+44%and +46%), Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan (+143% and +196%, with aboutnormal temperature and sunshine) and several regions in Kazakhstan.The contiguous regions of Jambyl in southern-central Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan and the Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region of China are atthe core of the high precipitation area: Xinjiang experienced anincrease of 224% over the average. Kazakhstan increased the croppedarable land fraction by a spectacular 23%, followed by Uzbekistanwith +20%)

(4) Other rainfallexcess areas to be mentioned occur in eastern Asia to central-easternAustralia, (5) the northern US and Canada, where some areas recordedmore than double the average precipitation (e.g. Iowa, Minnesota,South Dakota and Montana).

A first area withdeficit precipitation (1) covers 30 countries from Sweden andGermany to Great Britain to Morocco, Iran and Afghanistan, and theBlack Sea countries. On average the deficit reaches 34% with thelargest water stress occuring in the eastern Mediterranean andnorthern and north-western Europe being less affected. Nevertheless,both France and Germany list a decrease in cropping intensity (-8%and -16%, respectively). The same applies to Ukraine (croppingintensity down 18%). This is an area where winter crops have now beenplanted and where prospects will need to be improved by winterrainfall .

Other deficit areasoccur in : (2) Russiaand in (3) EasternAsia, where they encompass three Chinese provinces (Henan, Chongqingand Shandong), Japan and the two Korea. The Korean DPR deservesmentioning because the current deficit (-45%) follows another droughtyear; (4) the Indian states of Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Karnataka, aswell Sri Lanka suffered an average precipitation deficit of 50%; (5)Southern Oceania and western Australia; (6) Eastern and SouthernAfrica, i.e. fourteen countries south of Ethiopia and Uganda,Zambia and Namibia. Crops are currently growing at the higherelevations in eastern Africa while southern Africa is just plantingafter a severe drought year that affected much of the region in 2015.Zambia reduced the cropped arable land fraction by 10% over theaverage of the previous five years; (7) southern US and (8) the“southern cone” of South America: Chile, Uruguay as well as nineprovinces in Argentina.

2. Global cropproduction in 2016

CropWatch put thetotal output of the crops produced during 2016 at 2460 million tonnesof major grains and 316 million tons of soybeans. The major grainsare made up almost exactly by 40% of maize (995million tonnes, 1.2% over last year's output), 30% of rice (as paddy, 736 million tonnes, down -0.8% from the previous years) and30% of wheat (730 million tonnes, up 1.2 % over 2015).

Among the three major cereal producers the output of China reached 520 milliontonnes, 435 million tonnes for the United States and 261 milliontonnes for India. Neither China nor India performed well in 2016 dueto the poor environmental conditions. While maize stagnates in China,both rice and wheat production drop 1%, and for the first time inmore than a decade the production of soybean is up. In India, onlyrice is up by 1%; soybean is on par with 2015, maize is down 1% andwheat as much as 6%, one of the largest decreases of all thecountries monitored by CropWatch.

In the US, on theother hand, while wheat remains stable, the output of all other majorcommodities increases significantly with soybean up 3%, and both maize and rice growing at least 5%.

The early 2016 ricecrops did usually poorly in a number of Asian countries because ofthe prevailing El Niño drought in south-east Asia that was reportedon in detail in the February and May 2016 CropWatch bulletins. Thelist includes Cambodia -10%, Myanmar -8%, Bangladesh and Vietnam -6%,Pakistan -3%. Maize production increased in Iran (+9%) as well as ina group of countries in Central Asia that benefited from unusuallyfavourable rain for the second consecutive year, as mentioned in theagroclimatic overview above.

The most spectaculardrop in wheat production occurred in Turkey (-17%), followed by somemajor producers and exporters such as India (-6%), Argentina (-4%)and France and the United Kingdom (both -3%). Large increases arethose of Australia (+14%) and Iran (+15%), a country that did wellfor most crops after a long run of mediocre conditions.

For Soybean Egypt,Iran, Canada and one of the largest producers (Argentina) allunderwent a drop of 1%. Brazil increased the production by 2%, whileboth Russia and the United States improved by 3%.

The present reportalso assesses domestic production of the major exporters andimporters, which is likely to affect trade patterns. The majorimporters have generally increased their domestic output, with thenotable exceptions of rice (resulting from a 1% production drop inChina) and wheat with Turkey -mentioned above -estimated to have lost17% of production compared with 2015. Exporters did generally wellwith a marked increase in the wheat availability among the majorexporters (+8.0%, resulting from the excellent performance of Canadaand Australia). The reduced rice availability for the top exporters(-0.6%) results from the poor performance of several countries,including Pakistan (-3%), Vietnam (-6%), and Brazil (-7%). On thecontrary, the rice offer has increased in Australia (+14%) and theUnited states (+6%). The most noteworthy variations among maizeexporters include mainly the large drop of maize production in Brazil(-12%).

3. China

All crops have nowbeen harvested and the total production is currently put by CropWatchat (in million tonnes) 200.4 for maize (same as 2015), 200.5 (-1%)for rice, 118.6 (-1%) for wheat and 13.3 (+2%) for soybeans. Forsummer crops CropWatch puts the total (including maize, single rice,late rice, spring wheat, soybean, minor cereals, and tubers) at 414.3million tons, a marginal decrease (-0.4%) from 2015. The total annualfood production (including cereals, tubers, and legumes) reaches 570million tons, a drop of 1.0 % (5.9 million tons) compared with 2015.

The government’srecent decision to end procurement of the crop at high minimumpurchasing prices resulted in farmers shifting from maize to othercrops. However, this year's maize area was only 0.8% below 2015, withthe most significant decreases occurring in Inner Mongolia andHeilongjiang provinces. Increases are listed for Liaoning (+4%) andYunnan (+5% due to yield increase).

2016 witnessed areversal of the decade long downward trend of soybean production. Thelargest increases occurred in Inner Mongolia (+23% resulting from anincrease in planted area just above 26%). The drop in rice productionresults mainly from decreases in early rice (3%) and late rice(2%) due to shrinking planted areas. Some areas neverthelessincreased their rice production, including Jilin (+12%), Liaoning(+9%) and Yunnan (+6%).

To a large extent, the listed variationscan also be ascribed to environmental conditions that were favourableto pests and weakened crops, making them vulnerable to rice planthoppers (which damaged 14.7 million hectares) and rice sheath blightthat took a toll on a slightly smaller area (13.3 million hectares).The listed variations will affect prices and trade. Specific sectionsof the CropWatch bulletin provide details.


The current CropWatch bulletin is prepared jointly by severalinstitutes of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) in collaborationwith XXX (if applicable? ) under the overall coordination of theDigital Agriculture Division of the Remote Sensing and Digital EarthInstitute (RADI). It is based mainly on geophysical data and modelsand focuses on crops that have been harvested in 2016 as well asthose that were still growing between July and October, to beharvested later this year. The bulletin is global and comprehensive;it covers prevailing weather conditions in all the countries of theworld, but pays special attention to the thirty major agriculturalcountries and China (“30+1”) , where crop condition, size ofcultivated areas and global food production is assessed with specificagronomic indicators. Together, the “30+1” make up at least 80%of the production and exports of maize, rice, wheat, and soybean. Thebulletin naturally has specific chapters about China and includessections on pests and diseases, trade and prices, next to otherdetails.

1. Globalagroclimatic patterns

Weather remains themajor single factor behind the variability of global food production.The current reporting period from July to October included severallarge coherent areas with positive and negative weather conditions.

Among the major areas with excess precipitation the first tobe mentioned is the (1) usually semi-arid Sahelian region of northernAfrica (Senegal to north Sudan), extending east into the ArabianPeninsula. (2) Several regions from western Russia toNorthern-central Europe and Greece also received precipitationamounts that are beneficial to the early crop stages of the beginningwinter crop season in the area. (3) Not unlike the previous season,vast expanses of land in and around central and southern Asiarecorded abundant precipitation when expressed against the average ofthe recent fifteen years (+67%). The area includes more than 30countries and large sub-national units; temperature wassystematically below average (-0.4 ºC) and so was radiation (-5%).It extends east as far as Shanxi and Hebei provinces in China (+44%and +46%), Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan (+143% and +196%, with aboutnormal temperature and sunshine) and several regions in Kazakhstan.The contiguous regions of Jambyl in southern-central Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan and the Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region of China are atthe core of the high precipitation area: Xinjiang experienced anincrease of 224% over the average. Kazakhstan increased the croppedarable land fraction by a spectacular 23%, followed by Uzbekistanwith +20%)

(4) Other rainfallexcess areas to be mentioned occur in eastern Asia to central-easternAustralia, (5) the northern US and Canada, where some areas recordedmore than double the average precipitation (e.g. Iowa, Minnesota,South Dakota and Montana).

A first area withdeficit precipitation (1) covers 30 countries from Sweden andGermany to Great Britain to Morocco, Iran and Afghanistan, and theBlack Sea countries. On average the deficit reaches 34% with thelargest water stress occuring in the eastern Mediterranean andnorthern and north-western Europe being less affected. Nevertheless,both France and Germany list a decrease in cropping intensity (-8%and -16%, respectively). The same applies to Ukraine (croppingintensity down 18%). This is an area where winter crops have now beenplanted and where prospects will need to be improved by winterrainfall .

Other deficit areasoccur in : (2) Russiaand in (3) EasternAsia, where they encompass three Chinese provinces (Henan, Chongqingand Shandong), Japan and the two Korea. The Korean DPR deservesmentioning because the current deficit (-45%) follows another droughtyear; (4) the Indian states of Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Karnataka, aswell Sri Lanka suffered an average precipitation deficit of 50%; (5)Southern Oceania and western Australia; (6) Eastern and SouthernAfrica, i.e. fourteen countries south of Ethiopia and Uganda,Zambia and Namibia. Crops are currently growing at the higherelevations in eastern Africa while southern Africa is just plantingafter a severe drought year that affected much of the region in 2015.Zambia reduced the cropped arable land fraction by 10% over theaverage of the previous five years; (7) southern US and (8) the“southern cone” of South America: Chile, Uruguay as well as nineprovinces in Argentina.

2. Global cropproduction in 2016

CropWatch put thetotal output of the crops produced during 2016 at 2460 million tonnesof major grains and 316 million tons of soybeans. The major grainsare made up almost exactly by 40% of maize (995million tonnes, 1.2% over last year's output), 30% of rice (as paddy, 736 million tonnes, down -0.8% from the previous years) and30% of wheat (730 million tonnes, up 1.2 % over 2015).

Among the three major cereal producers the output of China reached 520 milliontonnes, 435 million tonnes for the United States and 261 milliontonnes for India. Neither China nor India performed well in 2016 dueto the poor environmental conditions. While maize stagnates in China,both rice and wheat production drop 1%, and for the first time inmore than a decade the production of soybean is up. In India, onlyrice is up by 1%; soybean is on par with 2015, maize is down 1% andwheat as much as 6%, one of the largest decreases of all thecountries monitored by CropWatch.

In the US, on theother hand, while wheat remains stable, the output of all other majorcommodities increases significantly with soybean up 3%, and both maize and rice growing at least 5%.

The early 2016 ricecrops did usually poorly in a number of Asian countries because ofthe prevailing El Niño drought in south-east Asia that was reportedon in detail in the February and May 2016 CropWatch bulletins. Thelist includes Cambodia -10%, Myanmar -8%, Bangladesh and Vietnam -6%,Pakistan -3%. Maize production increased in Iran (+9%) as well as ina group of countries in Central Asia that benefited from unusuallyfavourable rain for the second consecutive year, as mentioned in theagroclimatic overview above.

The most spectaculardrop in wheat production occurred in Turkey (-17%), followed by somemajor producers and exporters such as India (-6%), Argentina (-4%)and France and the United Kingdom (both -3%). Large increases arethose of Australia (+14%) and Iran (+15%), a country that did wellfor most crops after a long run of mediocre conditions.

For Soybean Egypt,Iran, Canada and one of the largest producers (Argentina) allunderwent a drop of 1%. Brazil increased the production by 2%, whileboth Russia and the United States improved by 3%.

The present reportalso assesses domestic production of the major exporters andimporters, which is likely to affect trade patterns. The majorimporters have generally increased their domestic output, with thenotable exceptions of rice (resulting from a 1% production drop inChina) and wheat with Turkey -mentioned above -estimated to have lost17% of production compared with 2015. Exporters did generally wellwith a marked increase in the wheat availability among the majorexporters (+8.0%, resulting from the excellent performance of Canadaand Australia). The reduced rice availability for the top exporters(-0.6%) results from the poor performance of several countries,including Pakistan (-3%), Vietnam (-6%), and Brazil (-7%). On thecontrary, the rice offer has increased in Australia (+14%) and theUnited states (+6%). The most noteworthy variations among maizeexporters include mainly the large drop of maize production in Brazil(-12%).

3. China

All crops have nowbeen harvested and the total production is currently put by CropWatchat (in million tonnes) 200.4 for maize (same as 2015), 200.5 (-1%)for rice, 118.6 (-1%) for wheat and 13.3 (+2%) for soybeans. Forsummer crops CropWatch puts the total (including maize, single rice,late rice, spring wheat, soybean, minor cereals, and tubers) at 414.3million tons, a marginal decrease (-0.4%) from 2015. The total annualfood production (including cereals, tubers, and legumes) reaches 570million tons, a drop of 1.0 % (5.9 million tons) compared with 2015.

The government’srecent decision to end procurement of the crop at high minimumpurchasing prices resulted in farmers shifting from maize to othercrops. However, this year's maize area was only 0.8% below 2015, withthe most significant decreases occurring in Inner Mongolia andHeilongjiang provinces. Increases are listed for Liaoning (+4%) andYunnan (+5% due to yield increase).

2016 witnessed areversal of the decade long downward trend of soybean production. Thelargest increases occurred in Inner Mongolia (+23% resulting from anincrease in planted area just above 26%). The drop in rice productionresults mainly from decreases in early rice (3%) and late rice(2%) due to shrinking planted areas. Some areas neverthelessincreased their rice production, including Jilin (+12%), Liaoning(+9%) and Yunnan (+6%).

To a large extent, the listed variationscan also be ascribed to environmental conditions that were favourableto pests and weakened crops, making them vulnerable to rice planthoppers (which damaged 14.7 million hectares) and rice sheath blightthat took a toll on a slightly smaller area (13.3 million hectares).The listed variations will affect prices and trade. Specific sectionsof the CropWatch bulletin provide details.