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Authors: 超级管理员 | Edit: zenghongwei
The overall average agroclimatic variables over the MPZ (RAIN,-1%; TEMP,-0.5°C; and RADPAR, -2%) hide a situation made up by spatially contrasted situations.
Unfavorable rainfall affected about 37.2% of the MPZ during July and August, especially in Romania (RAIN, -27%), southwest Ukraine (Lviv to Vinnytsia oblasts) and southern Russia (from the kray of Krasnodar to the Kabardino balkariya republic). The largest deficits occurred in the two republics of Ingushetiya (-42%), Adigeya (-39%), and the kray of Krasnodar (-32%). Favorable precipitation with peaks in July and October was recorded on a large band crossing the continent from Poland (+28%) in the west to the Russian oblasts of Samarskaya (+7%) and Saratovska (+29%), with maxima in the oblast of Leningrad (+48%) and the republic of Karelya (47%). Temperature was generally low, with two colder periods in July and in September. The coldest area was the already-mentioned Adigeya republic with an average drop of -1.8 degrees over the reporting period. The only area with significantly higher than average temperature occurred in the north-east of the MPZ around and between the oblasts of Kirov (+0.5°C over the reporting period) and Perm (+1.3°C) where the temperature departure peak exceeded 7°C in early August for two consecutive dekads.
The resulting biomass production potential (BIOMSS, -3% on average for the MPZ), which is relevant mostly for summer crops, directly results from the agroclimate: a positive departure in Poland (+21%, decreasing in the west), northwest Belarus (+8% nationwide) and adjacent areas in Russia (oblast of Smolensk, +17%), as well as in the oblasts in the east of the MPZ mentioned for their high precipitation. Low values occur in the southern areas. The pattern is largely confirmed by the VCIx values: high in Poland and Belarus and intermediate in Ukraine and Romania where a mix of favorable and unfavorable situations occurs.
Uncropped arable land occurs mostly in the Caucasus (Stavropol kray), which is also characterized by clusters of unfavorable VHIn and low VCIx. Considering all indicators, thus including CALF (98% on average, an increase of 3 percentage points over the reference period), the rather high average VCIx (0.89 on average; 0.9 in Poland, Ukraine and Russia), and the cropping intensity (101% and down 2 percentage points from the last five years), mixed but about average conditions are estimated to prevail over the MPZ, with below average conditions in the southern most areas where the outcome of the current winter crops season will crucially depend on winter precipitation.