Generally, crop condition in Brazil was comparable to the five-year average. Over the reporting period, winter wheat has reached maturity and harvesting will be concluded by the end of November. The harvest of the second maize crop was completed and maize in central-east of Brazil was approaching maturity. "Normal" agro-climatic conditions were observed for the nation as a whole according to the CWAIs: RAIN (+1%), TEMP (+0°C) and RADPAR (+2%). However, climatic condition varied greatly from state to state. As shown in Figure a, below average rainfall mainly occurred in Rio Grande do Sul and central Brazil. Statistically, among the major agricultural states, Mato Grosso and Parana are the only two states that received above average rainfall (+6% and +12% respectively). Rainfall in Mato Grosso do Sul and Santa Catarina was average, while other major agricultural states suffered from 10% or more water shortage. Considering that temperature and radiation were generally average, the below average BIOMSS mainly resulted from water deficit.

Agronomic indicators consistently show average crop condition. As indicated by the maximum VCI map, VCIx was below 0.5 in central Brazil due to unfavorable rainfall. Spatial NDVI patterns and the corresponding NDVI departure profiles also confirm that below average NDVI mainly occurred in Goias and Central Brazil where almost no rainfall was observed for two months before early August. Above average NDVI in southern Brazil from August to October indicates a favorable outlook for wheat production. CropWatch revised the wheat production to 7545 ktons, 8% up from the previous harvest season. Since this latest monitoring period is out of the soybean, rice, and maize growing season for most parts of Brazil, CropWatch keep the production estimates for those three crops at the same level as the previous forecast.

(a) Rainfall departure from the past 15 years average, July to October 2016

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA and the coresponding NDVI departure profiles