Crop condition was generally close or below average from July to October 2016 in Iran. The summer crops (potatoes and rice) were harvested in September, while winter wheat and barley started to be sown in the same month. Accumulated rainfall (RAIN, -39%) was below average over the last four months, while temperature (-0.5°C) was slightly below and RADPAR (+1%) close to average. CropWatch agro-climatic indices for the current season indicate unfavorable weather conditions for crop growth, which is confirmed by the significant decrease of the BIOMSS indicator by 42%. Compared to the five-year average, the national average of VCIx for this monitoring period was 0.6, and CALF increased by 3 percentage points. The cropping intensity (+4%) above the five-year average indicates higher crop land utilization in 2016.

According to the national crop condition development graphs, the major rice producing areas (Mazandaran and Gilan provinces in the central-north region) experienced favorable conditions, while in most of the northwestern region, crop condition was below average for the entire monitoring period. Crop condition in the central-western region, such as in Kermanshah, Llam, and surrounding provinces, was above average except during early August and at the end of October.

Overall, the production of rice in Iran is expected to be above average, while the outlook for other summer crops is just fair.

Figure 3.17. Iran crop condition, July-October 2016

(a) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI         (b) Maximum VCI

(c) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA and the coresponding NDVI departure profiles