Major agricultural regions in Turkey suffered rainfall shortages within the reporting period. At the national scale precipitation totals were 43% below the fifteen-year average. Temperature and radiation were near to average, with the exception of the southeast of the country, which was warmer than usual by 0.7°C. The maximum VCI (0.72) was below average and the cropped arable land fraction (CALF) increased by 2 percentage points from the five-year average. Nationwide, NDVI was below last year's values and slightly below the five-year average; NDVI dropped significantly in October. In general, biomass production is expected to be much lower than the five-year average (BIOMSS, -37%).

The areas (9.1% of arable land) that experienced the most unfavorable conditions, especially during the summer months, occur in the northwest (the European part of the country), in the Aegean region, and in Central Anatolia and the south (Mediterranean region). This spatial pattern is confirmed by low maximum VCI values (<0.5). Barley and maize are the crops most affected as they were at grain filling and ripening phases during the reporting period. The coastal area of the Black Sea and the northeast (spring barley cultivation area) presented rather favorable conditions, which appear clearly in the maximum VCI map with pixels above 0.8.

In general, the production outlook is below last year’s and the five-year average due to unfavorable weather conditions and a decreased fraction of cropped arable land.

(a) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI   

(b) Maximum VCI

(c) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA and the coresponding NDVI departure profiles