The harvest of maize, rice, wheat, and soybean in China was completed by the end of October. Based on the latest remote sensing and field samplingdata, the revised CropWatch estimate of China’s production is listed in table 4.2. For rice, amore detailed production estimate is presented in table 4.3, taking into account complex regional patterns.

Table 4.2. China’s maize, rice, wheat, and soybean production (‘000 tons) in 2016 and percentage change from 2015 by province

Note: * Production of Taiwan province is not included.

Maize. For maize, the Chinese government’s recent decision to end procurement of the crop at high minimum purchasing prices is resulting in farmers shifting from maize to other, more suitable crops in regions where maize cultivation is marginal due to soil or climatic conditions. The policy, however, has not resulted in much change in terms of national total maize planted area. According to an area estimation based on an integration of 16 meter resolution remote sensing imagery and big data analysis techniques for the 40 thousand field photos collected nationwide (See figure 4.7), this year's maize area was only 0.8% below 2015, with the most significant decreases occurring in Inner Mongolia and Heilongjiang provinces (areas shrinking by respectively 222 and 103 thousand hectares, or 7% and 2% compared to 2015). Maize production for other major maize producing provinces (maize production above 1500 ktons) increased as a result of favorable agro-climatic conditions; in particular, maize production in Liaoning is up 4% over 2015, recovering from last year's severe drought. Other significant changes in production are also observed for maize in Shaanxi (-6%, mainly due to the decreased planted area) and maize in Yunnan (+5%, due to yield increase). At the national level, maize production is estimated at 200.4 million tons, a marginal decrease compared with 2015.

Figure 4.7 Location of thousands of field photos with geotag collected during the summer crops growing season

Soybean. CropWatch also revised its estimates for soybean yield, putting it slightly above the previous forecast. With the increased planted area, soybean production is set to 13,287 ktons, up 2% from last year and up 147 ktons compared to the August forecast. The most significant increase in soybean production occurred in Inner Mongolia (a 23% increase) where the planted area increased 26.5% over 2015. Interestingly, while the average yield in Liaoning recovered by 7% from the drought year in 2015, soybean production still decreased by 18% due to the smaller planted area. Other significant changes in production are also observed for maize in Shaanxi (-6%, mainly due to the decreased planted area), maize in Yunnan (+5%, due to yield increase), and rice in Jilin, Liaoning, and Yunnan (+12%, -9%, and +6%, respectively), with those changes in rice production resulting mainly from the variation in planted area compared with 2015.

Rice. CropWatch now puts the total rice production for China at 200.5 million tons, a 1% decrease from last year, with a marginal change in single rice production and 3% and 2% decreases of early rice and late rice production, respectively. Due to the excessive rainfall in some areas and below average RADPAR, pest and diseases impacts are more severe than during both an average year and 2015. Abundant rainfall coupled with storms and typhoons also lead to localized flooding which damaged rice fields in central and southern China. Fortunately, the unfavorable conditions were not widespread and their impacts remained limited for national single rice production. The 2% decrease in late rice production was mainly due to the decrease in planted area compared with 2015, in line with the trend to convert double cropping to single rice cropping. Significant changes in rice production are also observed for rice in Jilin, Liaoning, and Yunnan (+12%, -9%, and +6%, respectively), with those changes in production resulting mainly from the variation in planted area compared with 2015.

Wheat. Because the wheat harvest in China for 2016 was already completed before the start of the current reporting period, CropWatch estimates for wheat remain unchanged at 118.6 million tons.

Table 4.3. China, 2016 single rice, early rice and late rice production ('000 tons) and percentage change from 2015 by province

Note:* production of Taiwan province is not included.

Overall, CropWatch puts the total 2016 output of summer crops (including maize, single rice, late rice, spring wheat, soybean, minor cereals, and tubers) at 414.3 million tons, a marginal decrease (-0.4%) from 2015. The total annual crop production (including cereals, tubers, and legumes) is 570.3 million tons, a 1.0% drop or 5.9 million tons less compared with 2015. Detailed information of seasonal aggregated production by province is listed in Table 4.4. 

Table 4.4. Aggregate crop production (‘000 tons) per harvest season for major agricultural provinces, China 2016

Note: * Production of Taiwan province is not included. # Crops are sorted into winter crops (sown before winter the previous year), early rice (sown in late spring and harvested in summer), and summer crops (sown in summer and harvested in autumn). Total annual crop production is the sum of the winter crops, early rice, and summer crops production.