The following analysis of domestic prices for soybean, maize, japonica rice, and wheat in China is based on the following three sources: (i) nationwide monthly grain price data between January 2004 and September 2016 provided by the price information center of China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC); (ii) China’s grain production, inventory, and consumption predicted by USDA’s monthly world agricultural supply and demand estimates (WASDE) reports; (iii) price trend forecasts and early warning obtained by Fang Jingxin’s price-spiral model.

• Soybean: At present, both the international soybean consumption rate and the domestic soybean price are in the equilibrium range. As the price of soybean has already been running above the trend line, its fluctuations will be reinforced.
• Maize: In terms of consumption, the current maize consumption rate has been entering the top of the consumption tension state. Although its price trend was still falling, it has entered the non-equilibrium range. As some signs suggest maize prices are bottoming out, they are expected to rebound in the near future.
  
• Japonica rice: The current rate for Japonica rice consumption is similar to the one for maize. Its recent downward trend will slow down along with changes in supply and demand.
  
• Wheat: The current wheat consumption rate is in the equilibrium range, while its price is in the non-equilibrium range. The wheat price trend is downward, but is expected to gradually slow down.
  

Figure 4.11. Fluctuation in soybean (a), maize (b), Japonica rice (c) and wheat (d) price, January 2004 to October 2016 

                                                                                            (a)

                                                                                            (b)

                                                                                            (c)

                                                                                            (d)

Note: The graph illustrates the price of wheat for the last 12.5 years since January 1 2004.