Chinese grain and soybean imports and exports from January to September 2016

Maize

From January to September 2016, China imported 2.97 million tons of maize, which represented a decrease of 34.3% over the same period in 2015. Ukraine (89.3%), the United States (6.9%), and Russia (2.1%) were the main sources for the imports, the value of which reached US$ 579 million—44.6% below the value for the same period in 2015. Maize exports over the first three quarters of this year (1,726 tons) decreased by 79.8% and went primarily to the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (82.6%), Russia (17.4%), and the Republic of Korea (ROK, 1.5%). The exports earned US$ 617.8 million, down 75.3% from 2015.

Rice

Over the same January to September period, China imported 2.56 million tons of rice, an increase of 9.9% compared to the previous year. The imports stemmed from Vietnam, Thailand, and Pakistan, respectively accounting for 49.1%, 24.9%, and 20.3% of the total volume. The expenditure for rice import was US$1169 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.3%. Over the period total exports reached 239 tons, up 15.5%, mainly to the Republic of Korea, Japan, and Hong Kong (41.7%, 12.6%, and 10.4%, respectively). The value of the exports was US$211 million, an increase of 15.5% over 2015.

Wheat

Wheat imports reached 2.87 million tons, an increase of 27.2% over 2015. The main sources include Australia (41.5%), Canada (25.4%), the United States (23.6%), and neighboring Kazakhstan (9.0%). Notwithstanding the increase in volume, the total expenditure of US$697 million was an increase of just 0.1% compared with 2015. Wheat exports over the same period dropped 10.5% to reach 82,000 tons. Hong Kong (75.4%), Ethiopia (12.9%), and Macao (5.4%) were the main destinations for the exported wheat.

Soybean

The total import of soybean went up by 2.5% to 61.19 million tons between January and September of 2016. Brazil, the United States, and Argentina respectively contributed 52.2%, 41.8%, and 6.0%, for a total value of US$24.46 billion, down 6.6% compared to the period of 2015. Soybean exports of 92,600 tons (-17.5%) earned US$79.38 million (-24.8%).

Import prospects for major grains and soybeans

Based on the latest monitoring results, China grain and soybean imports are projected to increase. The projections below (see also figure 4.13) are based on remote sensing data and the Major Agricultural Shocks and Policy Simulation Model, which derives from the standard GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project).

Maize

According to the projections, national imports will go down 18.2% and exports will decrease by 30.4% in 2016. The gap between domestic and international prices tends to tighten. Also because of sufficient domestic supply, maize imports continue to decrease and will hardly exceed the 7.2 million tons of prevailing quotas.

Rice

China’s 2016 imports are expected to increase by 21.3% compared to 2015, while exports will go up by 8.2% according to the model prediction. With the gradual increase of the difference between international and domestic prices and sufficient domestic supply, imports will increase throughout the year but will be within the limits imposed by prevailing quotas.

Wheat

China’s wheat imports are expected to increase by 18.6%, but exports are projected to drop 9.1% compared to 2015. As the rate of decline for the international wheat price was larger than for domestic prices from the second half of this year and the price gap of high quality wheat between domestic and abroad also narrowed, the rate of increase for wheat imports is expected to slow down and wheat imports will increase slightly.

Soybeans

Soybean imports will increase by 4.6% while exports will be reduced by 16.4% in 2016, according to the projections. Because the gap between domestic and international prices narrowed and because the share of soybean among crops changed recently in China, the imported volume will be only slightly greater than that for the previous year.

Figure 4.12. Rate of change of imports and exports for rice, wheat, maize, and soybean in China in 2016 compared to 2015 values (%)

Source: Authors based on CropWatch remote sensing data and results from the Major Agricultural Shocks and Policy Simulation Model.