5.2 Focus: Middle East

Overview

Thecountries covered in this focus section on the “Middle East” are part of the Arabian Peninsula and western Asia (figure 5.1).They include Turkey (TUR), Israel (ISR), and twelve Arabic countries fromBahrain (BHR) to Iraq (IRQ), Jordan (JOR), Kuwait (KWT), Lebanon (LBN), Oman(OMN), the State of Palestine (PSE,[1] also referredto as West Bank and Gaza by the World Bank and Occupied PalestinianTerritory by FAO), Qatar (QAT), Saudi Arabia(SAU), Syria (SYR), the United Arab Emirates (ARE), and Yemen (YEM). As shownin table 5.3, their areas cover about four orders of magnitude from 770 km² to2.1 million km² for Saudi Arabia.

Figure 5.1. Middle Eastern countries

Note: ARE: United Arab Emirates; BHR: Bahrain; EGY: Egypt; IRQ: Iraq;ISR: Israel; JOR: Jordan; KWT: Kuwait; LBN: Lebanon; N. SUD: North Sudan; OMN:Oman; PSE: the State of Palestine; QAT: Qatar; SAU: Saudi Arabia; SYR: Syria;TUR: Turkey; YEM: Yemen.

Source:

Half the countries in the region are oilproducers, including major ones such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United ArabEmirates, and Kuwait. The share of oil as a percentage of GDP reaches valuesbetween 15% and 20% for Bahrain, the Emirates, and Qatar; between 30% and 40%for Oman, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq; and as high as 53% for Kuwait (World Bank2011). All countries are actively diversifying out of oil but face severeconstraints in terms of environment and food security, not to mention severepolitical unrest and wars that have been affecting much of the region fordecades.

Thetotal population in the region reaches 229 million, with people mostlydistributed in Turkey (76 million), Iraq (34 million), Saudi Arabia (30 million),Yemen (26 million), and Syria (19 million). The least populated country isBahrain with just 1.4 million inhabitants. Interestingly, the most populatedcountries are also the ones with the smallest urban populations in relativeterms. Many countries have population growth rates that are well above theworld average (currently close to 1% annually according to Census 2016), forinstance in Jordan (3.06%), Qatar (4.72%), Kuwait (4.81%), Lebanon (5.99%), andOman (8.45%). The lowest values for population growth rate in the region occurin Israel (1.66%), Turkey (1.69%), and Bahrain (1.76%), as well as in Syria(-2.27%) due to the war that has been ongoing for six years and the ensuing massiveemigration. According to UNHCR (2016), the region has many internally displacedpersons, mostly in Iraq and Syria, as well as close to 5 million refugeesdistributed between Egypt, Jordan, Turkey, and Lebanon. In addition, as a resultof favorable economic conditions, many countries in the region have also been thetarget of emigration, with immigrants mainly from Asian countries such asBangladesh and Indonesia. As a result of refugee and economic migrantmovements, some Middle Eastern countries have large populations ofnon-nationals, with population shares as high as 31% (Saudi Arabia), 40%(Jordan), or even 70% (Kuwait), 74% (Qatar), and 84% (United Arab Emirates).

Even withoutconsidering difficult environmental conditions, the declining food productionin the region, and persistently low crude oil prices, indices of poverty,political stability, and food security are particularly unfavorable in somecountries in the region. For instance (see also table 5.1), Global FoodSecurity Indices (GFSI) remain below 60 in Yemen (GFSI is 34), Syria (36), andJordan (57). Yemen in fact is the 11th mostinsecure food country in the world. HumanDevelopment Indices do not exceed 0.70 in Yemen (0.50), Syria (0.59), and Iraq(0.65), countries where the Political Stability Indices of the World Bank are alsovery negative (Syria, -2.76; Yemen, -2.53; Iraq, -2.47; and Lebanon, -1.72).

Environmental conditions and agriculture

In spite of generally high elevations (figure5.2a), the Middle East is one of the driest places on earth (figure 5.2b), withlarge deficits of rainfall when compared with the evaporative power of theatmosphere (as expressed by Potential Evapotranspiration, PET). Only limitedareas of Turkey and Lebanon have an annual excess of rainfall over PET. As aresult, permanent rivers are rare and include mostly the Tigris and Euphratessystem that originates in eastern Turkey and flows mostly through central andeastern Iraq. The discharge is directly related to winter precipitation in theMediterranean area, resulting in winter flow usually being 10 times larger thansummer flow (UNU, 1995). The basin of the Jordan River touches Syria, Israel,and Palestine, as well as Lebanon and Jordan which derive about 70% of theirfreshwater resources from perennial rivers (ECOMENA, 2016). The flow peaks inwinter and often dries completely in summer as a result of the naturalvariability combined with extensive use for irrigation (up to 90% of the flow).One of the consequences of this is the drying of the Dead Sea, which has beenlikened to the Aral Sea disaster. Oman, Saudi Arabia, Syria, the United ArabEmirates, and Yemen are dependent on surface water and seasonal rivers.Finally, the region is also rich in oases mostly fed by fossil and slowly renewablewater in desert areas.

Figure 5.2. Elevation (a) and differencebetween average monthly rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (b)

Source: Based on rainfall and on PET computed from New_locClim(Grieser et al, 2006).

Figures 5.3a and b show the extent ofirrigation in the region. All surface waters as well as ground water are put touse, and desalination has become a major source of freshwater, albeit tooexpensive for irrigation use (ECOMENA, 2016).

Figure5.3. Percentage of land irrigated per pixel

Note. Figure b presents a detail of figure 1.
Source: Based on GMIA data (FAO, 2016).

As shown in table 5.3, agriculture makes upa large share of water use, as expressed by the percentage of total renewablewater resources (TRWR). If some countries are still in a favorable situation (forexample Lebanon (LBN), which uses 17% of its renewable water for agriculture and24% for agriculture, domestic and industrial uses combined, or Turkey with usesof 16% and 20% respectively for those uses), many other countries areapproaching the point when they need to tap non-renewable water resources(Jordan, 65% and 92%; Israel, 57% and 80%; Iraq 58% and 73%). Some of the maincountries in terms of area have already started using their non-renewableresources, such as in particular Yemen (154% and 169%) and Saudi Arabia (867%and 942%; see Wergosum 2011 for a detailed analysis of the situation in SaudiArabia). This situation is highly unsustainable and may potentially lead tomore unrest in the region.

Table 5.3. Selected descriptors andreference data about the Middle Eastern countries

Notes: LAT: Land area; LAA: Agricultural land; LAR: Arable land; POPT:Population; TRWR: Total Renewable Water Resources; For country abbreviations,see note figure 5.1.
Sources: (1) Global food security index, varies from0 (bad) to 100 (good), 2016 data, Economist 2016; (2) Human development index,2014 values (0.35 to 0.95), http://hdr.undp.org/en/composite/HDI; (3) Politicalstability index, 2014 values, varies from -2.76 (Low) to 1.54 (high), http://www.theglobaleconomy.com/rankings/wb_political_stability/; (4) World Bank data for 2015 http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/migration/data/estimates2/estimates15.shtml; (5) TRWR, Total renewablewater resources, http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/main/index.stm, most recent data available. Insome countries, the percentage of agricultural water withdrawal exceeds totalwater withdrawal. This is because the first one refers to freshwater(withdrawal by source) and the second includes both freshwater andnon-conventional water (withdrawal by sector). Non-conventional water includes desalinated sea or brackish water, direct useof (treated) waste-water and direct use of agricultural drainage water; (6)Based on 2009-13 FAOSTAT data; (7) Wikipedia, 2010-15 UN estimates, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population_growth_rate; (8) 2013 data from worldbank; (9) Same as (8), two significant digits for 2015 data; same as 8, average of whichever years are availablebetween 2011 and 2015; (10) World Bank, based on FAO data; (11) currentinternational $, World Bank data. Average of whichever years are availablebetween 2011 and 2015; (12) percent change of arable land between 1991-95 and2009-13. Based on FAOSTAT data; (13) same source as (6). The variable is thepercentage of cereal imports in the total available cereals, i.e. the sum ofimports and local production.

Agricultural production and trends

The total agricultural production of recentyears is shown in table 5.4 below. It amounts to 212.9 million ton per year forthe main crop categories, including 44.2 million ton per year of cereals. Thisis approximately equivalent to 200 kg per person per year.

Table 5.4. Production and imports of cropsin the Middle East (2012-2014 average)

Notes: MT/Y= million tons/year. (1)Cereals include rice as milled equivalent; (2) production includes “roots andtubers” but imports include only potatoes.

Arable land has been decreasing in most of the region over the last20 years (figure 5.4), and so has the contribution of agriculture to the GDP(values are low and variable, from 0% to 9% in Turkey; table 5.3). Table 5.3also provides additional detail about arable land shrinkage, with dropsparticularly large in Palestine (-54%), Yemen (-21%), Iraq (-19%), Israel andTurkey (-15%), and Saudi Arabia (-14%). Increases have taken place in some ofthe smaller countries where non-renewable water is liberally used inagriculture.

To some extent, improvements in water useefficiency, varieties, and management have allowed a stabilization in the productionof roots and tubers and cereals (figure 5.5), while fruit and vegetableproduction has continued to increase slowly over time. In fact, in mostcountries the production of fruits and vegetables has received a lot ofattention (at the expense of cereals), to the extent that their production inseveral countries is of the same order of magnitude as that of cereals (Iraq,Turkey, and Syria) or even exceeding cereals (Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Yemenand most small countries, sometimes by a large factor). This is illustrated infigure 5.6. Obviously, the income generated from fruits and vegetables, oftenfor export, plays against the more traditional crops.

Figure 5.7 illustrates that there is somedegree of specialization in different crop groups. For instance, although Yemenmakes up about 10% of the population of the region, it produces about 20% ofpulses of the Middle East. Similarly, Syria, in spite of the ongoing war, withonly about one tenth of the population, produces 50% of its fibers, about 40%of its pulses, and about 20% of its roots, fruits, vegetables and cereals.Except for cereals, Israel, Lebanon and—to some extent Jordan—produce more thantheir share of most crops, and especially roots and tubers (potatoes, partiallyfor export but mostly for consumption within the region, as shown by low importnumbers for roots and tubers). Meanwhile Iraq (between 15 and 20% of the MiddleEastern population) produces about 35% of the cereals.

Imports

Stagnatingor shrinking productions must be complemented by imports to keep pace with thedemand of fast growing populations. The region imports about 86 million ton ofvarious agricultural commodities. Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, Turkey, and Iraqare the largest importers in the region, although the detail of imports variessignificantly between countries (figure 5.8). Table 5.4 also compares localproduction and imports for some major crop categories.

Figure 5.8. Product imports by country(million tons)

Wheat is the major staple in the region and constitutes also thebulk of imports, about one fifth (19.6%). This is followed by “other cereals,” thatis mostly maize as cattle feed (17.1%), which compares with feeds and fodder,making up 8.7%. The region also imports sizeable volumes of meat (2.8% ofimports) and milk products (7%). Edible oil (4.7%) and sugar (7.2%) alsodeserve mentioning.

Turkey and Iraq are the largest wheat andedible oil importers, while Turkey and the Emirates are the largest feedimporters. Saudi Arabia is the major importer of “other cereals,” fruits andvegetables, as well as meat and milk products.

In most countries of theregion, about 90% or more of the cereal consumption is obtained throughimports. Exceptions are the United Arab Emirates (only 13% of cereal imported),Israel (50%), and Turkey (45%) (table 5.3). Allcountries import more wheat than rice, and wheat accounts for 16% (Syria) to78% (Yemen) of cereal imports. Most countries import between 100 and 200 kg of “wheat+rice”per capita.

Discussion

Several countries in the Middle East region(including Iraq and Syria), that used to be considered “bread baskets” havebecome very vulnerable to food insecurity due to their heavy dependence onimported food. The region is currently among the largest food—and especiallywheat—importers in the world and derives about 50% of its calories from imports(35% of calories are derived from wheat only).[2]This happens against the backdrop of sustained population increases anddeclining agricultural production due to land degradation and policies,including policies to protect ground water resources. Many people in the regionare poor and spend between one third and more than half of their income on food(World Bank/FAO/IFAD, 2009).

The causes of national food productiondeclines are complex. They also include under-investment in agriculture, war,and endemic unrest in many areas as well as the perception of agriculture as aminor sector compared with the “oil rent” of many countries.

In reality, it is difficult to clearlyseparate causes from effects, but water and land availability are among themain issues. Countries now resort to several forms of “non-conventional water”obtained by desalination of sea and brackish water or recycling of waste-waterand agricultural drainage water. Desalination is too costly a source for irrigation use (ECOMENA 2016), and the over-use ofriver water combined with the climate-conditioned reduction in flow of theJordan, Euphrates, and Tigris Rivers have led to a drop in national productioncompared with their peak in the early 21st century, most evidentlyin Syria, Iraq, and Jordan.

Due to the well-established links betweenwater and energy consumption (Siddiqi and Anadon 2011 and ECOMENA 2016), badly neededeconomic development is bound to further increase water needs in a region thatalready suffers from the highest per capita rates of freshwater extraction inthe world (804 m3/year) and already over-exploits its renewablewater resources. The water cycle uses up to 12% of national electricityconsumption and this number is continuously on the rise. In the United ArabEmirates, about 20% of electricity is used for desalination, while in mostother countries the percentage is still relatively low (around 10%).

Due to the interconnectedness of climate,food production, demographics, the oil rent, overconsumption of water, energyuse, environmental conservation, economic development, and the inherentlyinternational dimension of surface and ground water resources, no evident way-outexists for the many kinds of insecurity (RBAS, 2009) that affect the MiddleEast region.

[1] The State of Palestine has Permanent Observer status at the UN; itwas recognised by about 70% of countries worldwide, including China butexcluding essentially Western Europe and North America.

[2] According to World Bank/FAO/IFAD2009 this percentage of calories from imports (currently 50%) is toincrease to 64% by 2030. The issues have been known for years and many insightfulanalyses and recommendations exist (Jury and Vaux 2007; Earthscan/FAO 2011; LPI2011; Sowers et al 2011; GEO5 2012; GWP/INBO 2012; Islar 2012; Hendrix andBrinkman 2013; and Mekkonen and Hoekstra 2016). Proposed solutions, on the"technical side", include land reclamation, salt-tolerantagriculture, improved water and energy use efficiency in agriculture and societyat large, improved food processing, investments in agriculture and agronomicresearch, strengthening of safety nets, improved access to family planningservices, education, outsourcing production to other countries, and even the"more effective use of financial instruments to hedge risk” (World Bank/FAO/IFAD2009).