EI Niño has continued to be neutral and La Niña did not cross critical thresholds during the third quarter of 2016. The eastern tropical Pacific SST (sea surface temperatures) have cooled rapidly between March and October, 2016 based on the OISST (Optimum Interpolation SST) . SSTs  are predicted to remain cool but average until the first quarter of 2017 according to forecasting

EI Niño has continued to be neutral and La Niña did not cross critical thresholds during the third quarter of 2016. The eastern tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) have cooled rapidly between March and October 2016, based on the OISST (Optimum Interpolation SST). SSTs are predicted to remain cool but average until the first quarter of 2017, according to forecasts from the 15 models at Beijing Climate Center (figure 5.8).

Figure 5.9 illustrates the behavior of the standard Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) from October 2015 to October 2016. During the current season, SOI has increased gradually from +4.2 in July to +5.3 in August and increased rapidly to 13.5 in September, before dropping sharply to -4.3 in October, indicating neutral conditions of EI Niño and the possibility of a weak La Niña at the end of 2016. NOAA confirms the cooler-than-average SST in the central-eastern tropical Pacific Ocean and also that La Niña has only about a one in two chance to persist through the winter of 2016-17 (figure 5.10).

Both BOM and NOAA nevertheless issued a La Niña watch, stating conditions are weak for La Niña to emerge in late 2016 and early 2017. In the next few months, CropWatch will keep a close eye on the development of La Niña and the regions that show sensitivity to this event.

Figure 5.8. Tropical Pacific SSTA (Forecasted and monitored datasets)

Source: http://cmdp.ncc-cma.net/download/ENSO/Variables_evolution/ENSO_SSTA_Patterns_O7P7_20161001.png

Figure 5.9. Monthly SOI-BOM time series fo October 2015 to October 2016

Source: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/soi2.shtml

Figure 5.10. Sea surface temperature difference from average temperature, September, 2016

Source: https://www.climate.gov/sites/default/files/geopolar-ssta-monthly-nnvl--1000X555--2016-09-00.png