The reporting period covers the main growing period of winter crops in humid areas and the planting of early maize and rice. Part of the period is fallow period for summer crops. Conditions were close to normal in most of the Major Production Zones (MPZ), but some indices (CALF and VCIx) showed poor conditions in West Pampas, East Subtropical highlands and North West Chaco. North of Brazilian agricultural area (Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Goias, Minas Gerais and Sao Paulo) showed also anomalies in temperature and rain, as well as low BIOMSS values.

Spatial distribution of rainfall profiles showed five different patterns. A stable pattern with near no anomalies (dark green profile) was observed in most of Argentina's agricultural area (most of Pampas, Subtropical Highlands and Chaco), and Uruguay. A pattern with near no anomalies during almost the entire period, and a strong positive anomaly at the end of October (red profile) was observed in North East Pampas and South Mesopotamia in Argentina and West Uruguay. Two similar patterns with strong positive anomalies at the beginning of September and during October (Orange and Light green profiles) were observed in North Mesopotamia in Argentina, South East Paraguay and North Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina and Parana states in Brazil.  Finally, a pattern with near no anomalies up to August and negative anomalies in September (blue profile) and October was observed in Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Goias, Minas Gerais and Sao Paulo in Brazil. Trends in precipitation anomalies need to be considered, as the nmorth of the MPZ showed a tendency to decrease at the end of the reporting period (possible drying process) and the center of the MPZ showed a tendency to increase precipitation (possible recovery process).

Temperature profiles showed four homogeneous patterns located approximately in a North-South gradient. Northern agricultural areas, including states of Mato Grosso, Goias and Minas Gerais in Brazil, showed a profile with near +2°C anomalies from July to the beginning of September and an increment during mid-September and October showing positive anomalies of near +5°C (orange profile). A similar profile but with higher anomalies (near +4°C) during the end of July, August and the beginning of September (blue profile) was observed in Mato Grosso do Sul, Sao Paulo and North Parana states in Brazil. The other two profiles (dark and light green) showed negative and positive anomalies. Both profiles showed negative anomalies of nearly -2°C in mid-July and positive anomalies of nearly +3°C during the end of July and beginning of August. The dark green profile showed positive anomalies during September, while the light green profile showed nearly no anomalies during September and October. A dark green profile covers East Paraguay, North Mesopotamia in Argentina and in South Parana and Santa Catarina states in Brazil. The light green profile was observed for the rest of Argentina, Uruguay and Rio Grande do Sul state in Brazil.

The CALF map showed several uncropped areas in Center and West Pampas, Chaco, and East Subtropical Highlands in Argentina, reflecting the typical sparse planting of winter crops in drier areas like West Pampas, West Subtropical Highlands and North East Chaco, but also reflecting reduced planting of winter crops or a delay in the planting of summer crops in some of the humid areas like Center Pampas and South Chaco. North of the MPZ (Mato Grosso and Goias states in Brazil) also showed uncropped areas but in a much lower magnitude.

BIOMSS showed strong negative anomalies (lower than -20 %) in Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Goias, Minas Gerais, Sao Paulo and North Parana states in Brazil. Most of the Pampas in Argentina showed regular to strong negative anomalies. The rest of the MPZ showed good conditions in BIOMSS with positive anomalies.

Maximum VCI showed poor conditions in Center and West Pampas and Chaco in Argentina. Excep for some areas in Mato Grosso and Minas Gerais in Brazil, the rest of the MPZ showed good conditions for VCIx.

In summary, several indices showed poor conditions in part of Pampas, Chaco and Subtropical Highlands in Argentina (CALF and VCIx). Pampas also showed poor conditions in BIOMSS.  North of Brazilian agricultural area, including Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Goias Sao Paulo, and Minas Gerais states, need to be carefully watched, because poor conditions were also observed in some indices: high positive temperature anomalies, negative precipitation anomalies at the end of the reporting period, and strong negative anomalies in BIOMSS. 

Figure 2.3 South America MPZ: Agroclimatic and agronomic indicators, July to October 2023

(a) Spatial distribution of rainfall profiles

(b) Spatial distribution of temperature profiles

(c) Cropped and uncropped arable land

(d) Potential biomass departure from 5YA

(e) Maximum VCI