3.1 OVERVIEW

Chapter 1 has focused on large climate anomalies that sometimes reach the size of continents and beyond. The present section offers a closer look at individual countries, including the 46 countries that together produce and commercialize 80 percent of maize, rice, wheat, and soybean. As evidenced by the data in this section, even countries of minor agricultural or geopolitical relevance are exposed to extreme conditions and deserve mentioning, particularly when they logically fit into larger patterns.

The global agro-climatic patterns that emerge at the MRU level (chapter 1) are reflected with greater spatial detail at the national and sub-national administrative levels described in this chapter. The “core countries”, including major producing and exporting countries are all the object of a specific and detailed narrative in the later sections of this chapter, while China is covered in Chapter 4. Sub-national units and national agro- ecological zones receive due attention in this chapter as well.

In many cases, the situations listed below are also mentioned in the section on disasters (chapter 5.2) although extreme events tend to be limited spatially, so that the statistical abnormality is not necessarily reflected in the climate statistics that include larger areas. No attempts are normally made, in this chapter, to identify global patterns that were already covered in Chapter 1. The focus is on 46 individual countries and sometimes their subdivisions for the largest ones. Some of them are relatively minor agricultural producers at the global scale, but their national production is nevertheless crucial for their population, and conditions may be more extreme than among the large producers.

1. Overview of weather conditions in major agricultural exporting countries

The current section provides a short overview of prevailing conditions among the major exporters of maize, rice, wheat, and soybeans, conventionally taken as the countries that export at least one million tons of the covered commodities. There are only 20 countries that rank among the top ten exporters of maize, rice, wheat, and soybeans respectively. The United States and Argentina rank among the top ten of all four crops, whereas Brazil, Ukraine and Russia rank among the top ten of three crops.

Maize: Maize exports are being dominated by just 4 countries: USA, Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine. Together, they are supplying three quarters of maize being traded internationally. Brazil has substantially increased its production in recent years, whereas Ukraine’s export has been hampered by the Russian invasion. No maize production took place in the southern hemisphere during this monitoring period. In the USA and Mexico, conditions for maize production were generally favorable. In Europe, Romania suffered from a rainfall deficit. Production in Western Europe benefitted from favorable moisture and temperature conditions. In the Ukraine, rainfall was sufficient to create favorable conditions for maize growth. In Ethiopia, average rainfall patterns helped produce a normal maize crop. Similarly, conditions for maize production in the North China Plain and the Northeast of China were favorable due to above average rainfall. Although unfavorable weather early in the planting period combined with Some localized flooding caused some damage that reduced yields, this was more than compensated for by an increase in area as compared to last year. Hence, conditions for maize production were generally favorable in the northern hemisphere.

Rice: Most rainfed (Kharif) rice grown in South Asia was sown or transplanted in June and July. Localized flooding, as well as irregular rainfall patterns, caused some yield losses in India and Pakistan. In Southeast Asia, conditions for rice production were normal. Only Indonesia was affected by drought. Irrigated rice production in California, the second largest rice producer of the USA, after Arkansas, benefitted from the abundant rainfall of the last winter season, which helped replenish water levels in the dams and guarantee the water supply. In the South of the USA, a rainfall deficit caused a reduction in production.

Wheat: Winter wheat harvest in the northern hemisphere concluded in August, whereas harvest of spring wheat grown in the northern regions lasted until October. The Canadian Prairies, the Northern Plains of the USA, Russia, and Kazakhstan are the major producers of spring wheat in the northern hemisphere. While rainfall conditions had improved during this monitoring period, spring wheat grown in Russia and Kazakhstan had suffered from a rainfall deficit during the previous monitoring period. Frequent rainfall during the harvest period, such as in Germany, Poland and in Kazakhstan, caused some challenges for farmers and impacted the grain quality. In the southern hemisphere, rainfall was below average in Australia. However, last year’s abundant rains had helped restore soil moisture. Therefore, farmers could still harvest an average crop, despite of the lack of rainfall. In South Africa, cooler and wetter than normal conditions caused favorable conditions for wheat production. In Argentina, wheat had suffered from the dry conditions caused by the severe drought and the improved rainfall had started too late. In Brazil, abundant rainfall in Parana and Rio Grande do Sul in September and October has caused challenging conditions for harvest.

Soybean: No soybean was harvested during the monitoring period in the southern hemisphere. Planting of soybeans in Brazil started in October. Goias, Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul and Minas Gerais were affected by very hot and dry conditions in October.  The severe drought conditions are likely to cause a delay in germination and crop establishment. In the USA and the Saint Lawrence Basin in Canada, conditions for soybean production were generally favorable, aided by normal rainfall and average temperatures. Similarly, conditions for soybean production in Europe, especially in the Ukraine, were normal. Above average rainfall helped China produce good yields.

2. Weather anomalies and biomass production potential changes

2.1 Rainfall

In South America, rainfall was more than 30% below average in the Amazon and center of Brazil. Further south, the rainfall distribution varied greatly among the regions. The southern Pampas also had a rainfall deficit that was greater than -30%, while the situation in the other provinces of Argentina and in Chile was better. Rain in Central America was close to or above average. This period covers the rainy season in Mexico. In this country, the rainfall deficit varied by -10 to -30%. This will have negative implications for the production of irrigated crops in the coming dry winter months, as the reservoirs could not get fully replenished. In the USA, California and the northeast had above average rainfall (+10 to +30%). In the Midwest, rainfall was close to average, but the more southern and western states had rainfall deficits of up to -30% or higher. In Canada, the Prairies were affected by a strong deficit (<-30%), whereas in the other eastern provinces, rainfall was closer to the 15YA or even above. All of Western Europe had above average rainfall, whereas for the eastern Europe, a deficit was observed. The strongest deficit occurred in Romania. The European part of Russia also had a rainfall deficit. The situation greatly improved for the drought-stricken Central Asian countries. In South and Southeast Asia, the conditions were mixed, ranging from average to slightly above average (+10 to+30%). The Malayan Archipelago had a deficit ranging from -10 to -30%, whereas in Australia, it exceeded 30%. In Africa, this was the dry season for the Maghreb. Hence, the deficit had little impact on crop production in those countries. However, most of the other African countries also received less than average precipitation. Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Mauretania had the strongest positive departures by more than +30%.

Figure 3.1 National and subnational rainfall anomaly (as indicated by the RAIN indicator) of July  2023  to October 2023 total relative to the 2008-2022 average (15YA), in percent.

 (2) Temperatures

The temperature anomalies at the provincial levels pretty much match those at the MRU level. It was warmer in almost all crop production regions. The only exceptions were the Punjab in Pakistan and Kyrgyzstan. Warmer temperatures by more than +1.5°C were recorded for almost all of Brazil and the south-central states of the USA. Algeria, Tunisia, Benin, Burkina Faso, most of Europe and the Himalayas, the North China Plain, Japan and New South Wales also experienced much warmer (>+1.5°C) than usual temperatures. Temperatures were close to the average in the Northwest and eastern half of the Midwest of the USA, as well as in Ontario and the Central Provinces of Canada. Average temperatures were also recorded for southern Africa and most of India. In the other regions, the temperature departures were positive, ranging from +0.5 to +1.5°C.

Figure 3.2 National and subnational sunshine anomaly (as indicated by the TEMP indicator) of July 2023 to October 2023 total relative to the 2008-2022 average (15YA), in °C .

2.3 RADPAR

Most of Argentina received below average solar radiation (<-3%). In Brazil, the situation was mixed. Radiation departures were generally in the positive range. Colombia and Venezuela had strong positive departures (>+3%). In Central America, radiation levels were below average and in Mexico and the southern USA, they were above. In its northern half, as well as in most of the crop production regions of Canada, solar radiation levels were below average by more than 1%. The strongest negative departures (<-3%) were recorded for the Northwest, upper Midwest and the Northeast of the USA. In Africa, Zimbabwe and Mozambique also had strong negative departures. Countries along the equator generally had a positive departure from the 15YA by up to +3% or more. In Western Europe, radiation levels were average. In Eastern Europe, positive departures by more than 3% had been recorded. In Central Asia, solar radiation was below average. But in South and Southeast Asia and Australia, strong positive departures by more than +3% had been recorded.

Figure 3.3 National and subnational sunshine anomaly (as indicated by the RADPAR indicator) of July 2023 to October 2023 total relative to the 2008-2022 average (15YA), in percent.

2.4 Biomass production

The BIOMSS indicator is controlled by temperature, rainfall, and solar radiation. In some regions, rainfall is more limiting, whereas in other ones, mainly tropical ones, solar radiation tends to be the limiting factor. For high-latitude regions, the temperature may also limit biomass production. In Brazil and the southern Pampas in Argentina, rainfall was the limiting factor. This resulted in biomass production estimates that were 10% below the 15YA. A similar deficit was estimated for Mexico, the Plain states and South of the USA. For the West Coast as well as the Northeast and Ontario and Quebec in Canada, a positive departure in biomass production had been estimated. In Western and Central Europe, biomass production was normal or above average. Only in parts of Eastern Europe, negative departures were estimated, especially for Romania and the Ukraine. Strong positive departures were estimated for Central Asia, the Punjab in Pakistan, Senegal, Somalia and Zimbabwe. For most of the countries in the Sahel, a negative departure had been calculated. In South and Southeast Asia, the conditions were mixed, although the departures were generally in the positive range (+5 to +10%). For Australia, a strong negative departure greater than -10% was estimated.

Figure 3.4 National and subnational biomass production potential anomaly (as indicated by the BIOMSS indicator) of of July  2023  to October 2023 total relative to the 2008-2022 average (15YA), in percent.