In Afghanistan, wheat, maize, and rice are the primary cereals cultivated. The sowing of spring wheat occurs in March and April, with the harvest period in August and September. Maize sowing begins in May, leading to an August harvest. Similarly, rice is sown in May or June, and the harvesting takes place between October and November.

The agro-climatic conditions showed that RAIN decreased by 27%, TEMP increased by 0.5°C and RADPAR was at an average level. BIOMSS decreased by 3% as compared to the 15YA. The CALF decreased by 4%, reaching only 6%, and the VCIx was recorded at 0.20.

The NDVI-based crop condition development graph clearly indicates that crop growth has consistently been below both the levels observed last year and the average of the past five years.

Most of the total cropped areas in Afghanistan showed slightly below-average crop conditions, accounting for 86.6%, while another 3.7% of the total cropped areas was significantly below average, mainly in northern regions including Balkh, Faryab, Badghis, Kunduz, Samangan, and Sarpol provinces. Only 5.7% of the total cropped areas maintained above-average crop performance throughout the monitoring period, primarily in eastern provinces with better irrigation facilities, such as Khost and Laghman.

Furthermore, Afghanistan's Crop Performance Index (CPI) was 0.96, a slight improvement from the previous period but still indicating a poor overall agricultural production situation. The earlier high temperatures and drought had numerous adverse effects, such as causing rivers to dry up, leading to severe water deficits for crop growth.  Afghanistan's limited and fragile infrastructure exacerbated the dire situation. All in all, conditions for crop production in Afghanistan were very poor.

Regional analysis

CropWatch subdivides Afghanistan into four zones based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topography. They are described below as Central region with sparse vegetation (1), Dry region (2), Mixed dry farming and irrigated cultivation region (3), and Mixed dry farming and grazing region (4).

The RAIN in the Central region with sparse vegetation was 13 mm, indicating a significant decrease of 61% compared to the 15YA. TEMP was 16.7°C, an increase of 1.6°C. RADPAR measured 1465 MJ/m2, which represented a 1% increase. The BIOMSS decreased by 6%. The CALF experienced a decrease of 19% as compared to the 5YA, now standing at 6%. The VCIx value was 0.34. NDVI-based crop condition graphs indicated below-average crop conditions.

In the Dry region, rainfall fell by 5% to 34 mm, accompanied by increased TEMP at 22.7°C (+1.1°C). RADPAR measured 1464 MJ/m2 (-1%). According to the NDVI-based crop condition development graph, crop conditions were lower than the average and last year, and CALF was limited to 5% (+9%). The VCIx of 0.24 highlighted poor crop growth.

The Mixed dry farming and irrigated cultivation region experienced a significant 30% decrease in rainfall to 52 mm. The TEMP rose slightly to 17.7°C (+0.1°C), while RADPAR was 1417 MJ/m2. BIOMSS declined by 5% to 415 g DM/m2, and CALF dropped to 11% (-6%). The VCIx value was 0.23. The NDVI graph showed that conditions were below the average and below those of the previous year.

In the Mixed dry farming and grazing region, RAIN was 3 mm. It decreased by 64% compared to the 15YA. TEMP stood at 20.7°C, marking an increase of 0.4°C. RADPAR was measured at 1456 MJ/m2, closely aligning with average levels. CALF was extremely low at 0.3%, indicating a decrease of 22%. The VCIx value was 0.09. BIOMSS was down by 8% to 337 g DM/m2. According to the NDVI-based crop condition development graph, the NDVI values were notably lower than the five-year average, pointing to unfavorable conditions.

Figure 3.5 Afghanistan’s crop condition, July - October 2023

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                                                              (c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                                                                    (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Rainfall profiles                                                                                                                              (g) Temperature profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (central_Sparse_Veg Region (left) and Mixed_Farming_Graze Region (right))

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Mixed_Dry_Irrigated Region (left) and Dry (right))

Table 3.2 Afghanistan’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 15YA, July - October 2023

Table 3.3 Afghanistan’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, July - October 2023