National Analysis

During the monitoring period spanning from July to October 2023, coinciding with maize sowing and the growth and harvesting stages of wheat, there were notable deviations from average agroclimatic conditions. Specifically, a decrease of 38% in rainfall (ΔRAIN) was observed, alongside a modest temperature increase of 0.6ºC, while photosynthetic active radiation remained around the average level. However, the forecast for the upcoming season, predominantly covering the maize growth period, indicates a likelihood of wetter-than-average conditions due to El Niño. There was a 10% decrease in estimated biomass production compared to the average of the past fifteen years. These reductions in total biomass production could be attributed to the adverse effects of decreased rainfall and increased temperatures.

The crop conditions development graph based on the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) clearly demonstrates the negative impact of agroclimatic indicators on wheat production areas. Throughout the monitoring period, crop conditions remained below the five-year average. This below-average performance was further confirmed by spatial NDVI patterns and NDVI profile graphs in comparison to the five-year average, revealing that only 6.9% of the region's arable land exhibited positive anomalies from early September to the monitoring period's end. Regions displaying positive anomalies during this period were primarily located in the provinces of Cuanza Norte, Luanda, and Bengo. The fraction of cropped arable land (CALF) decreased by 16% compared to the five-year average. The maximum vegetation condition index for the country stood at 0.70, with the most favorable conditions observed in the northern provinces. Crop intensity increased by 2%. All in all, conditions for wheat production were slightly unfavorable.

Regional Analysis

Considering the cropping systems, climate zones, and topographic conditions, CropWatch has divided Angola into five agroecological zones (AEZs), including the Arid zone (5), Central Plateau (6), Humid zone (7), Semi-arid zone (8), and Sub-humid zone (9).

Looking at a regional level, the agroclimatic indicators revealed significant decreases in rainfall across all agroecological zones as compared to the 15YA: a reduction of 66% in the Arid zone, 61% in the Semi-arid zone, 57% in the Central Plateau, 36% in the Sub-humid zone, and 35% in the Humid zone. Conversely, temperatures increased across all agroecological zones, with the most substantial rises observed in the Humid zone (ΔTEMP +0.8°C) and the Semi-arid zone (ΔTEMP +0.7°C). Photosynthetic active radiation exhibited minor variation, ranging between -1 and 1. These combined conditions resulted in decreased total biomass production across all agro-ecological regions, with reductions highlighted as follows: 17% in the Central Plateau, 13% in the Arid and Humid zones, 12% in the Sub-humid zone, and 6% in the Semi-arid zone.

Analysis of regional crop development graphs indicates that crop conditions remained below average throughout the entire monitoring period in all agro-ecological zones. Consequently, the Cropped Arable Land Fraction (CALF) exhibited distinct changes within these zones: a 52% decrease in the Semi-arid zone, a 3% decrease in the Sub-humid zone, and a 25% increase in the Arid zone. Meanwhile, CALF remained approximately consistent with the past five years' average in the Central plateau and the Humid zone. The Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx) ranged from 0.67 to 0.89 during this period. Additionally, cropping intensity during the same period experienced a 12% increase in the Arid zone, a 3% increase in the Sub-humid zone, and a 1% increase in the Semi-arid zone. Conversely, a 13% decrease was observed in the Humid zone, and a 2% decrease occurred in the Central plateau. Above 1 Crop Production Index (CPI) values were noted in the Semi-arid and Sub-humid zones.

Figure 3.6. Angola's crop condition, July-October 2023

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                   (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                    (e) NDVI profiles

(f) National time-series rainfall profiles                                            (g) National time-series temperature profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI - Arid zone (left) and Central Plateau (right)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI - Humid zone (left) and Semi-arid zone (right)

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI - Subhumid zone

Table 3.3. Angola’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values, and departure from 5YA, July-October 2023

Table 3.4. Angola’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values, and departure from 5YA, July-October 2023

Table 3.5. Angola’s crop production index, July-October 2023