The current period covers the main growth periods of wheat and barley. The weather was drier and warmer than usual, but the national NDVI profile was close to the last 5-year average.

From July to October, Australia suffered a nationwide rainfall deficit (RAIN -43%). The rainfall profile showed that only early July and early October reached average levels. The average temperature was higher (TEMP +1.2°C) while the sunshine was above average (RADPAR +7%). The rainfall deficit led to a decrease in biomass (BIOMSS -21%). The agronomic indicators, with a VCIx of 0.75, a decreased CALF (-3%) and CI (-3%) indicate below, but close to average crop conditions.

The conditions in the four main wheat production states (New South Wales, South Australia, Victoria, and Western Australia) were generally similar, with largely below-average rainfall (ranging from -31% to -50%), slightly warmer temperatures (ranging from +0.5°C to +1.5°C), above-average sunshine (ranging from +5% to +9%). These conditions led to a decrease in estimated biomass production, ranging from -17% to -22% below average.

Spatially, the VCI map shows that the VCIx in Australia were mostly ranging from 0.8 to 1.0, with low values of less than 0.5 appearing in eastern and southwestern Australia. The spatial NDVI profiles show the same pattern. Only 11.6% of croplands had above average NDVI, while nearly 70% encountered below average levels. Overall, the crop conditions for Australia were close to, but below average.

Regional analysis

Australia has five agro-ecological zones (AEZs), namely the Arid and Semi-arid Zone (marked as 18 on the NDVI clustering map), Southeastern Wheat Zone (19), Subhumid Subtropical Zone (20), Southwestern Wheat Zone (21), Wet Temperate and Subtropical Zone (22). The Arid and Semi-arid Zone, in which hardly any crop production takes place, was not analyzed.

The Southeastern wheat zone had below average rainfall (-41%). Temperatures (+1.0°C) and solar radiation (+8%) were above average. Consequently, the average biomass accumulation was estimated as 22% lower than the last 15 years’ average. The CALF was slightly increased (+3%), but the cropping intensity was decreased (-3%). The VCIx and CPI were 0.83 and 0.99, respectively. However, the NDVI profile showed that the conditions were better than last 5 years’ average. The NDVI nearly reached the maximum in the late August. This could be explained by the normal conditions in the previous period and an acceptable rainfall from July to August. An above average production can be expected.

The rainfall was only 56 mm in the Subhumid subtropical zone (-66%). Both the temperature (+1.7°C) and radiation were above average (+8%). The estimated BIOMAS was largely below average (-27%). The CALF (-18%), cropping intensity (-7%) were also negative, and the maximum VCI was very low (0.54). The NDVI profile, which was below average in the whole period, also confirms the poor conditions.

The Southwestern wheat zone also encountered a dry (RAIN, -31%), warm (TEMP, +1.0°C), and sunny (RADPAR, +5%) period. The biomass was consequently below average (-18%). The CALF decreased by 7%, with a VCIx of 0.76. The NDVIs were below average for the whole period. The condition in this zone was below average.

The Wet temperate and subtropical zone had similar agro-climatic indicator departures. The rainfall was below average (-38%), the temperature (+1.2°C) and radiation (+6%) were both above average. Due to the low rainfall, the biomass was decreased by 15%. The CALF (-4%) and cropping intensity (-3%) were also slightly below average. The maximum VCI was 0.68. The NDVIs from July to October were near the last 5 year’s average. An unfavorable to average condition was indicated.

Overall, combining the agro-climatic and agronomic indicators, the crop conditions in the JASO period were mostly unfavorable. However, the crops still benefitted from soil moisture that had accumulated during the previous monitoring periods. All in all, near average cereal production can be expected for Australia.

Figure 3.5 Australia’s crop condition, July - October 2023

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                                                              (c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                                                                    (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Rainfall profiles                                                                                                                              (g) Temperature profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Arid and semiarid zone (left) and Southeastern wheat area (right))

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Subhumid subtropical zone (left) and Southwestern wheat area (right))

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Wet temperate and subtropical zone)

1 Australia’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 15YA, , July - October 2023

2 Australia’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, , July - October 2023