During this reporting period, the harvest of the Aus rice crop was completed in August. This period also covers the sowing and growth of Aman Rice, which will be harvested in the next period. For the whole reporting period, rainfall was close to 15YA. Both TEMP and RADPAR were above average (TEMP +0.6℃, RADPAR +5%). BIOMSS was also above the 15-year average (+1%). Continuous hot weather affected crop growth. The national NDVI development graph showed that overall crop conditions were below the 5-year average and returned to the average at the end of October. The spatial NDVI pattern showed that 17.3% of the cultivated area had a sudden drop in early August  and about 11.3% showed a sharp drop at the end of September due to cloud cover in the satellite images. The maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx) was 0.88, with most areas showing values higher than 0.8 and CALF was slightly above the 5YA (+1%). The Cropping intensity was 163% (-6%) and Crop Production Index (CPI) was 0.96. Overall, the crop conditions in most parts of Bangladesh were close to average.

Regional analysis

Bangladesh can be divided into four agro-ecological zones (AEZ): the Coastal region(23), the Gangetic Plain(24), the Hills(25), and the Sylhet basin(26).

In the Coastal region, RAIN was above average (ΔRAIN +2%). Both TEMP and RADPAR were above average (ΔTEMP +0.6°C and RADPAR +3%). The potential biomass was slightly above average (BIOMASS +1%). The crop condition development graph based on NDVI shows that crop conditions were below the 5-year average and returned to the average at the end of October. Cropping intensity (CI 152%) was lower than the 5YA by 6%. CALF was 93% (+1%) and VCIx was 0.87, Crop Production Index (CPI) was 0.94. Overall, crop conditions were below but close to average for this zone.

RAIN was slightly below average (ΔRAIN -1%) in the Gangetic Plain. Both TEMP and RADPAR were above average (ΔTEMP +0.6°C and RADPAR +6%, respectively). The BIOMSS was slightly above average (+1%). The crop condition development graph based on NDVI shows that crop conditions were slightly below the 5YA except at the end of July and early September and returned to the 5-year average at the end of October. During the monitoring period, CALF (97%) was above average (+1%) while cropping intensity was below the 5YA (-6%). VCIx was 0.90 and the Crop Production Index (CPI) was 0.96. Crop conditions of this region were close to the average.

The Hills recorded less rainfall (ΔRAIN -15%). Warmer temperature (ΔTEMP +0.4℃) and more sunshine (RADPAR +7%) were also recorded. But potential biomass for the Hills was estimated 1% lower than the 15YA average. The crop conditions experienced a deterioration from near average to below average. Uneven rainfall affected the agricultural activities of rice and cropping intensity was below the 5YA (-7%). CALF was 98% and VCIx was 0.92, Crop Production Index (CPI) was 0.95. Overall, crop conditions were close to the average.

The Sylhet basin had more rainfall (ΔRAIN +7%). Both TEMP and RADPAR were above the 15YA (ΔTEMP +0.6℃ and RADPAR +6%, respectively). Potential biomass for the Hills was estimated to be 1% higher than the 15YA. CALF was above the 5YA (CALF +1%) while CI was lower than the 5YA (CI -6%) and VCIx was 0.85 for the area. Crop development based on NDVI was slightly above or near average in this period except at the end of August. Crop Production Index (CPI) was 0.96. Based on the above information, near-average prospects for rice in the zones can be expected.

Figure 3.5 Bangladesh’s crop condition, July - October 2023

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

图.X 开始编辑

 (c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                        (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Rainfall profiles

(g) Temperature profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Coastal region

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Gangetic plain

(j)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Hills

(k)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Sylhet basin

Table 3.2 Bangladesh’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 15YA, July - October 2023

Table 3.3 Bangladesh’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, July - October 2023