The reporting period includes the harvesting of spring wheat from August to September and the planting of winter wheat in October. The nationwide rainfall amount was 240 mm, 13% below the 15YA average. Average temperatures were warmer (+1.9°C) and solar radiation was above average (RADPAR, 847 MJ/m², 6%). The potential biomass was below average (-4%). Agronomic conditions were generally favorable: good values of VCIx (0.88), cropping intensity (CI, 115%) and cropped arable land fraction (CALF, 100%) were observed. High rainfall in late October helped with the establishment of the new winter wheat crop.

Belarus had experienced a rainfall deficit during the previous monitoring period. Therefore, NDVI values stayed below average in July. High rainfall in late July and early August helped NDVI recover to average levels. The national VCIx map shows that crop condition in about 69.2% of cropped areas were close to or slightly above the 5-year average, but the other areas remained below average. According to the VCIx distribution map, VCIx was satisfactory in most cropped areas of the country (above 0.8), indicating fair crop prospects, while low values were mostly scattered in the northern area. The agricultural production index was above 1.0 (CPI, 0.96), indicating average prospects.

Regional analysis

Regional analyses are provided for three agro-ecological zones (AEZ) defined by their cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, including Northern Belarus (028, Vitebsk, the northern area of Grodno, Minsk and Mogilev), Central Belarus (027, Grodno, Minsk and Mogilev and Southern Belarus (029) which includes the southern halves of Brest and Gomel regions.

North Belarus recorded a solar radiation increase (7%) combined with slightly higher temperatures (+1.8°C) and lower rainfall (-11%).  Potential biomass decreased by 3% below average. The VCIx had reached 0.86, and CALF had reached 100%, with a CPI of 0.91. The NDVI development curve was generally near average level. 

Central Belarus also experienced increased radiation (+6%) and slightly higher temperature (+2.0°C) and decreased rainfall (-14%). Similar to northern Belarus, high CALF (100%), VCIx (0.89) and CPI (0.99) were also recorded. The NDVI growth curve was generally near the average trend from July to October. The potential biomass decreased by about 5%.

Precipitation in Southern Belarus was also below the 15YA average level (-11%), and the temperature was slightly higher by 2.0°C and radiation increased by 5%. Potential biomass was expected to decrease by 3%. The CALF and the VCIx were 100% and 0.91 respectively, with an CPI of 0.99.

Figure 3.10 Belarus’s crop condition, July - October 2023.

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI 

(c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                (e) NDVI profiles

(f)Rainfall time series  

(g) Temperature time series

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (North Belarus)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central Belarus)

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (South-west Belarus)

Table 3.11 Belarus’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 15YA, July - October 2023.

Table3.12 Belarus’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, July - October 2023.