This reporting period (July to October) covers the main growing period of wheat. Its harvest is still ongoing and will conclude by December. The harvest of maize in the North-east is also ongoing while the harvest of rice in north and northeast and the second maize in central and southern Brazil had concluded by August. The sowing of summer crops (maize, soybean, and rice) in Central and Southern Brazil started in October and will last until the end of December.

The current monitoring period covers the end of the dry season and the start of the rainy season. Precipitation profiles indicate that precipitation was in general well below the average of the last 15 years and the start of the wet season was delayed in comparison to the long-term average. The dry weather together with the late start of the wet season might delay the sowing, emergence and early development of summer crops.

The 2023-2024 winter crops growing season was dominated by overall dry and warmer-than-usual weather in Brazil. CropWatch Agro-climatic Indicators (CWAIs) present below-average conditions with 49% lower rainfall, 2.3°C higher temperature and average radiation compared with the 15YA during this monitoring period. The significantly below-average rainfall and above-average temperature was unfavorable for crops, resulting in a 25% reduction of potential biomass. Dry weather conditions were wide-spread across all of Brazil with only four states receiving above-average rainfall, including Rio Grande Do Sul (+60%), Santa Catarina (+23%), Paraiba (+10%), and Alagoas (+3%). The extreme dry weather was observed in several major agricultural producing states such as Goias, Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso Do Sul, Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais with over 70% negative rainfall anomalies. Similarly, the largest temperature anomalies were observed in those five major states where temperatures were more than 2.6ºC higher than the 15YA and temperatures in all major agricultural producing states presented above average conditions. Negative and positive anomalies of radiation were observed in different states with the largest positive departure in Pernambuco at 7% above average and the largest negative departure in Rio Grande Do Sul, 9% below average. Low rainfall and high temperatures triggered severe water stress. The BIOMSS was in general well below average on the BIOMSS departure map.

The crop condition development graph based on NDVI for Brazil presents close to average values during the reporting period. The chart showing proportions of different crop condition categories from July to October 2023 showed that 32% of the Brazil had  below average crop conditions in early September and 28% in late October, which indicates that the water stress negatively affected crop development in Brazil. It is worth mentioning that at the same time, southern Brazil suffered from extreme heavy rainfall, resulting in floodings, which also had a negative impact on crop growth. Crop conditions varied, especially since September. Spatially, crops in the south and east presented above-average NDVI as they benefited from the normal or above average rainfall while NDVI in other regions stayed at or below average according to the NDVI departure clustering maps and profiles. Mato Grosso and Goias suffered from prolonged dry weather conditions resulting in significant negative NDVI departures (red color in figure e). It is also noteworthy that part of Mato Grosso Do Sul presented continuous improvements in crop condition since July although the region received limited rainfall. This is mainly due to the irrigation systems.

The VCIx map presented similar patterns with high values (> 0.8) in the northeast coast and Parana River Basin while VCIx values was lower (<0.8) in central Brazil, especially the Central Savanna zone. At the national level, VCIx was 0.85 and CALF was 1% above the 5YA. At the annual base, cropping intensity increased by 6%, indicating that the total cultivated crop area was at an above average level.

All in all, crop conditions in Brazil were sightly below average and the establishment of the summer crops was delayed due to the late start of the wet season. The crop production index (CPI) in Brazil is 1.07, reflecting an overall above average crop prospect. The main reason is that wheat production in Parana and Rio Grande Do Sul was less affected by dry weather. Wheat production is expected to be above average level.  As it is still at early stage of the summer crops, the outputs for 2023-2024 summer season crops will mainly depend on the weather conditions in the coming months.

Regional analysis

Considering the differences in cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, eight agro-ecological zones (AEZ) are identified for Brazil. These include the Amazon zone (30), Central Savanna(31), the East coast (32), Northeastern mixed forest and farmland(33), Mato Grosso zone (34), the Nordeste(35), Parana River (36), and Southern subtropical rangelands(37). All the AEZs received significantly below average rainfall (-37% to -92%) except for Southern subtropical rangelands (59% above average) and above average temperature (0.5 ºC to 2.9 ºC) . Central Savanna, Mato Grosso and Nordeste received less than 50 mm rainfall during the last four months. Considering the current agriculture practices, this bulletin focus on Central Savanna (31), Mato Grosso zone (34), the Nordeste (35), Parana River (36), and Southern subtropical rangelands (37). The overall dry and hot weather resulted in below-average BIOMSS (-9% to -39%) in most zones except for Southern subtropical rangelands (9% above average), where rainfall was above average.

Brazilian wheat is mostly cultivated in Southern subtropical rangelands and the Parana basin. Rainfall in the southern subtropical rangelands zone was the highest among the AEZs at 952 mm which is the only one higher than the average with 59% above average rainfall. Great temporal differences were observed during the last four months with large negative departures from the 15YA in late July to late August, while rainfall was above or close to average in other months, especially in early September to mid October with significantly higher than average rainfall, resulting in floodings. In general, the crops were less affected by the below average rainfall but slightly affected by flooding as reflected by the highest VCIx values at 0.93 among the AEZs. CALF in the region was 1% above the 5YA, and the CI was 3% above the 5YA. Wheat production was still at above-average levels estimated by CropWatch with crop production index (CPI) value at 1.06. In the Parana basin, rainfall was 37% below average, resulting in a 27% drop in BIOMSS. Thanks to the accessibility of water and irrigation facilities, crop condition was normal or above the 5YA level according to the NDVI-based crop development profile. During the wheat growing period, CALF was 2% higher compared with the 5YA and CI was 136%, 6% above the 5YA. Average VCIx value in the region was 0.90. CropWatch puts the wheat production in the region at an above-average level, with crop production index (CPI) at 1.13, the highest among the AEZs in Brazil.

Dry and hot weather resulted in below-average crop conditions in Central Savanna, Mato Grosso zones and Nordeste as shown in NDVI-based crop development profiles. They had lower than average rainfall with higher than average temperature, leading to below-average BIOMSS. VCIx values in Central Savanna, Mato Grosso zones and Nordeste were also the lowest among the AEZs. Accordingly, CPI values in the three regions were 0.91, 0.89 and 0.78 respectively, ranking as the lowest three AEZs values in Brazil.

For more indicators and detailed information, please visit CropWatch Explore (http://cropwatch.com.cn/newcropwatch/main.htm).

Figure 3.11 Brazil’s crop condition, July - October 2023

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI   

(c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA

(e) NDVI profiles

(f) Rainfall profiles     

(g) Potential biomass departure from 15YA

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Central Savanna

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Mato Grosso

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Nordeste

(k) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Parana basin

(l) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Southern subtropical rangelands

(m) Proportion of different crop condition categories, July - October 2023

Table 3.14 Brazil’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July - October 2023

Table 3.15 Brazil’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, July - October 2023