The monitoring period spans from July to October, 2023, which covers the harvest of wheat in August and September. Soybean and maize were harvested in October in the Saint Lawrence Basin. The sowing of winter wheat started in September. It is mainly grown in the Saint Lawrence Basin. According to the CropWatch agroclimatic indicators, Canada had warmer and dryer weather than usual in this reporting period. The overall condition was slightly below the five-year average.

The temperatures were 0.9℃ above the 15-year average, while rainfall and radiation were below average by 6% and 3%, respectively. All these indicators led to a decrease of potential BIOMSS by 4%. According to the NDVI cluster map,  the crop conditions for 39.5% of cropped land were always close to the average. For 19.7% of total cropped land (marked  in blue), mainly located in the south of Saskatchewan and Alberta, the crops were below average but recovered to above average in October. In regions accounting for 21.1% of the total cropped area, the crop condition was close to average but deteriorated to below average in August, mainly in the south of Saskatchewan. For the rest of the regions, accounting for 19.7% of the total cropped area, crop conditions were below average during this monitoring period.  For the whole year, the crop intensity was 104%, with a decrease of 1% when compared with the 5YA. The national maximum VCI value was 0.87, while CALF was slightly below average (CALF -2%). 

In short, considering the agro-climatic, and agronomic indicators and that the crop production index (CPI) was 0.94 during this monitoring period, the overall conditions of the summer crops in Canada are assessed as slightly below average.

Regional analysis 

The Prairies (Zone 53) and Saint Lawrence Basin (Zone 49) are the major agricultural regions in Canada.

The Prairies is the main food production region in Canada. The major crops in this region are winter wheat and spring wheat, as well as canola and sunflowers. The weather was drier and warmer than the 15YA. The rainfall was significantly below average (RAIN 170 mm, -23%), while the temperature was slightly above average (TEMP +0.9℃) with slightly below average radiation (RADPAR -3%). According to the rainfall profile in the Prairies, rainfall was significantly below average at the beginning of July and the entire month of September. The deficit of rainfall led to a below-average potential production (BIOMSS -12%). According to the NDVI development graph, the crop conditions were below average in this region. All in all, crop production can be assessed as slightly below average in this region.

The conditions in the Saint Lawrence basin were significantly warmer (TEMP +0.9°C) and wetter (RAIN +11%) than the 15YA, while radiation was slightly below average (RADPAR, -4%) and the potential BIOMSS experienced a 5% increase. According to the NDVI development graph, crop conditions had reached average levels before September but decreased slightly below average after that. Production in this region is estimated as average. 

Figure 3.12 Canada's crop condition July-October 2023

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI  (c) Maximum VCI

图.X Spatial distribution of NDVI profiles

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA   (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Rainfall time series                                      (g) Temperature time series 

(h)Time-series rainfall profile  in Prairies       (i) Time-series rainfall profile in Prairies

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Canadian Prairies region (left) and Saint Lawrence basin region (right))

Table 3.15. Canada's agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA,  July-October 2023

Table 3.16. Canada agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure, July-October 2023