The reporting period from July to October covers the growth and harvest of the main summer crops including maize and rice while winter wheat sowing is about to start in early November. The average rainfall reached 6mm which is 24% lower than the 15-year average (15YA). The rainfall profile shows that the rainfall did not exceed 6 mm. The average temperature was 26.8°C which is higher than the 15YA by 1.2°C. Generally, the temperature profile shows that temperatures were higher than the 15YA. Both RADPAR and BIOMSS were lower than 15YA by 2.5% and 2% respectively. The decrease in BIOMSS can be attributed to the decrease in rainfall. The nationwide NDVI profile was below the 5-year average (5YA) except for the end of July, where it was at the 5YA, and the start of August, where it was slightly higher than the 5YA. The NDVI spatial pattern shows that 12.6% of the cultivated area was above the 5YA, 39.2% fluctuated around the 5YA, and 48.3% was below the 5YA. The Maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx) map shows that the condition of the current crops was near average. The dominant VCIx values ranged between 0.50 and 1. This finding agrees with the whole country's VCIx value of 0.72. CALF was higher than the 5YA by only 2%. The nationwide crop production index (CPI) was at 1, implying a normal crop production situation. In general, the crop conditions were favorable.

Regional Analysis

Based on crop planting systems, climate zones, and topographical conditions, Egypt can be divided into three agroecological zones (AEZs), two of which are suitable for crop cultivation. These are the Nile Delta and the southern coast of the Mediterranean (area identified as 60 in the crop condition clusters map) and the Nile Valley (61).

Nile Delta and the southern coast of the Mediterranean (zone 60): The average rainfall was 6 mm (26% below the 15YA) while the temperature was at 26.8°C which is higher than the 15YA by 1.1°C. Both RADPAR and BIOMSS were lower than the 15YA by 2.4% and 1% respectively. Generally, the NDVI development graph followed the nationwide NDVI profile. CALF exceeded the 5YA by 3% with a maximum VCI at 0.74 confirming favorable crop conditions. The cropping Intensity estimate was at 180%, indicating a mixture of single and double-cropping. The CPI was at 1.03, implying above normal crop production situation.

Nile Valley (zone 61): The average rainfall was at 1 mm which is below the 15YA by 20% while the temperature was at 28.7°C (1.0°C higher than the 15YA). Both RADPAR and BIOMSS were lower than the 15YA by 3.5%, and 18% respectively. Generally, the NDVI development graph follows the nationwide NDVI profile. CALF was at the 5YA with VCIx values at 0.77, confirming favorable crop conditions. The cropping Intensity estimate was at 170%, indicating a mixture of single and double-cropping. The CPI was at 0.93, implying below-normal crop conditions.

Figure 3.14 Egypt’s crop condition, July - October 2023

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI(c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA(e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Nile Delta (left) and Nile Valley (right))

(g) Time series profile of rainfall   (h) Time series profile of temperature

Table 3.19 Egypt’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values, and departure from 15YA, July - October 2023

Table 3.20 Egypt’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values, and departure from 15YA/5YA, July - October 2023