The main food crops in Ethiopia are teff, wheat, barley, and maize. The monitoring period from July to October encompasses the main growing season of the Meher crops. Cumulative precipitation had dropped by 29% compared to the 15YA (20% in the previous monitoring period), but both average temperature (+1.2°C) and photosynthetically active radiation (+6%) were slightly higher than the 15YA. Precipitation deficit resulted in a slight 10% decrease in biomass compared to the 15YA. The crop condition development graph based on NDVI for Ethiopia shows values were below the 5YA in early August, September and late October. This might be an artifact, caused by cloud cover in the satellite images.  The NDVI departure clustering map shows a good crop development in most of the regions, except for the negative departure pattern in the southern region. The mean maximum VCI for Ethiopia is 0.91. The Maximum VCI graph shows the same pattern as the NDVI departure clustering map. The cropped arable land fraction decreased by 1% compared to 5YA. In conclusion, conditions were unfavorable for the Northern Arid Area (Tigray) and the Semi-arid pastoral area due to a precipitation deficit. In the other regions, the conditions were close to normal.

Regional analysis

In the Semi‐arid pastoral areas(72), a typical livestock production zone, cumulative precipitation decreased by 21%. Mean temperature and photosynthetically active radiation were close to the 15-year average (TEMP +2.4°C, RADPAR 0%) and cumulative potential biomass decreased by 5%. At the same time, the NDVI values in the region were mostly lower than the 5-year average for the reporting period. The maximum VCI was 0.66. Compared to the 5-year average, CALF decreased by 17%. Cropping index was 121%. Overall, the outlook for livestock production is not very good.

The central-northern maize-teff highlands (63) and the Southeastern Mendebo highlands zone(71) had similar agro-climatic conditions. Cumulative precipitatio was lower than the 15-year average (RAIN -36%,-43%), Mean temperature(TEMP +1.5,+0.8ºC) and photosynthetically active radiation (RADPAR +6%,+6%) were slightly higher than the 15YA, and BIOMSS was below average(BIOMASS -13%,-17%). CALF for these two regions was essentially unchanged from previous years, and VCIx was slightly below 1.0. Overall, crop conditions in these regions were close to normal.

In the South-eastern mixed maize zone(70), precipitation (RAIN -30%) was deficient, but sunshine (RADPAR +4%) was adequate, temperatures (TEMP +1.0°C) were slightly warmer and cumulative potential biomass was lower than the average (-9%). The crop condition development graph based on NDVI shows that NDVI overall was below the 5YA. The maximum VCI was 0.83 and CALF was 98%, equal to the 5-year average. Cropping index was 116%. CorpWatch estimates an average condition for autumn grain production in the region.

In the Western mixed maize zone(74), maize is the most important crop planted in the Meher season. The cumulative precipitation (RAIN +2%), average temperature (TEMP +0.8°C) and photosynthetically active radiation (RADPAR +9%) in the area were close to the 5-year average and estimated cumulative biomass was close to the 15-year average (-3%). The maximum VCI is 0.96 and CALF (100%) remains unchanged. Cropping index was 121%. The crops were in normal conditions according to the CropWatch indicators.

The northern arid area(66) is an agricultural area in northern Ethiopia. Due to the war, the cropped arable land fraction was almost zero and a severe food shortage is developing. 

Figure 3.5 Ethiopia’s crop condition, July 2023 – October 2023

Region

RAIN

TEMP

RADPAR

BIOMSS

Region

Cropped arable land fraction

Cropping intensity

Maximum VCI