During the monitoring period, the dry season maize and secondary rice were planted in July and August, and their harvest began in October.

CropWatch agroclimatic indicators show that temperature and radiation (TEMP +0.4°C, RADPAR +3%) were higher than the 15YA, but rainfall was below average (RAIN -19%), which led to average biomass production (BIOMSS -8%).

According to the national NDVI development graph, crop conditions were slightly below the 5YA during the monitoring period. NDVI clusters and profiles showed that crop conditions across most of Indonesia were close to average at the end of the monitoring period. The exception was 21.2% of cropland, which is located in central and southern Sumatra as well as northern Java. This region experienced below-average crop conditions due to a severe rainfall deficit caused by the El Niño weather phenomenon.

The area of cropped arable land (CALF 99%) in Indonesia was below the 5YA and the VCIx value was 0.93. The cropping intensity (CI) for this region is 145, which is 6 points higher than the value from the 5YA. This country's Crop Production Index (CPI) was 0.98, indicating close to average conditions. In summary, the crop production situation is estimated as below the average.

Regional analysis 

The analysis below focuses on four agro-ecological zones, namely Sumatra (92), Java (90, the main agricultural region in the country), Kalimantan and Sulawesi (91), and West Papua (93), among which the first three are relevant for crop production. The numbers correspond to the labels on the VCIx and NDVI profile maps.

In Java, radiation and temperature were above average (RADPAR +2%, TEMP +0.2℃), but precipitation was below the 15YA (RAIN -71%), while the potential biomass production was below average (BIOMSS -27%). As shown in the NDVI development graph, crop conditions were close to the 5YA in July, and below the 5YA in other months. The cropping intensity (CI) for this region was 143, which was 10 points higher than the value from the 5YA. However, The Crop Production Index (CPI) in Java was 0.96, and crop production can be assessed as below average. The strong rainfall deficit and steady decline of the NDVI development curve below the longterm average indicate below average crop conditions. 

Temperature and radiation were above the 15YA (TEMP +0.6, RADPAR +5%) in Kalimantan and Sulawesi, but precipitation was below the average (RAIN -26%), which led to a reduction of the potential biomass production (BIOMSS -8%). The NDVI development graphs showed that crop conditions were below the 5YA during the entire monitoring period. In Kalimantan and Sulawesi, the cropping intensity (CI) was 150, which had increased by 11 points compared to 5YA. The Crop Production Index (CPI) of 0.98 indicates below-average conditions in this region. The rainfall deficit and NDVI development curve indicate below average conditions.

According to the agroclimatic conditions of Sumatra, radiation and temperature were above the average (TEMP +0.5℃, RADPAR +2%), but precipitation was below the 15YA (RAIN -4%), which led to average biomass production (BIOMSS -3%). According to the NDVI development graph, crop conditions were significantly below the 5YA in August and October. The cropping intensity (CI) for this region is 140, which is 3 points higher than the value from the 5YA. The Crop Production Index (CPI) in Sumatra was 0.98, which indicated close to average conditions. All in all, conditions can be assessed as close to, but below average.

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI            (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                              (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Time series rainfall pofile

(g) Time series temperature pofile

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Java (left) and Kalimantan-Sulawesi (right))

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Sumatra)

Table 3.29 Indonesia’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July 2023 – October 2023

Table 3.30 Indonesia’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July 2023 – October 2023