This report covers the monsoon season in India. The main crops  grown were Kharif rice (planted from May to August, being harvested from September to October), maize (sown from May to July, harvested from August to October), and soybeans (sown from June to July, harvested from September to October). Winter wheat sowing started in late October. Nationwide, the NDVI development curve trended below average throughout this monitoring period. 

The agricultural meteorological indicators of India show that, compared to the average level of the same period in the past 15 years, the average temperature and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) were avove average, with an increase of 0.4°C and 5%, respectively.  The accumulated precipitation over the past four months was slightly lower than the average. Precipitation fluctuations caused alternating droughts and floods, with precipitation anomalies of 12.2% and 18.1% in July and September, but -22.7% and -18.6% in August and October, respectively. The combined effects of changes in temperature, solar radiation and rainfall caused a potential increase by 3% in biomass. The overall maximum vegetation condition index (VCIx) in India was relatively low at 0.87. From the spatial distribution of VCIx, it can be seen that the values were below 0.80 in the northwest and southern regions. From the spatial clustering NDVI anomaly map, it can be seen that during the entire monitoring period, for 50.1% of the northwest and eastern coastal areas, crop growth was close to or above the average level, for 25.1% of the central region, the crop growth was below the average level from early July to the end of August, and for 24.8% of the southern region, crop growth was below the average level in July. Compared with the average level of the same period in the past 5 years, the proportion of cultivated land was at a normal level. The crop production index was 0.93, indicating a slight reduction in crop production during the current season. This was mainly due to the precipitaiton deficit in August. All in all, crop conditions in India can be assessed as slightly below average, due to irregular precipitation patterns, causing floods and drought conditions.

Regional analysis

According to crop cultivation system, climate zone, and terrain conditions, India is divided into 8 agricultural ecological zones, namely the Deccan Plateau region (94), the eastern coastal region (95), the Ganges Plain region (96), the Assam and Northeast regions (97), the Rajasthan and Gujarat agricultural regions (98), the western coastal region (99), the northwest arid region (100), and the western Himalaya region (101).

The agricultural meteorological indicators in the eastern coastal region, central region, and Ganges Plain are similar. Compared to the average level of the same period in the past 15 years, the overall precipitation was above average. The average temperature and PAR were slightly higher than the average level, resulting in potential biomass exceeding the average value. Compared with the average level of the same period in the past five years, the proportion of cultivated land in the three regions was close to the average or slightly lower level. The cropping intensity index was close to the average or slightly lower, and the utilization rate of arable land was at a normal level. The crop growth NDVI profile shows that during most of the monitoring period, due to irregular precipitation, the crop growth was lower than the average level of the past five years. The NDVI decline at the end of July in the eastern coastal area is related to the flood disaster in late July with a precipitation anomaly of 72.8%, and the NDVI decline in the central region from late July to early August is related to flood disaster in July with monthly precipitation anomaly of 16.2%, The NDVI decline in the Ganges Plain in early July and early August is related to flood disasters with precipitation anomalies of 44% and 21.5% in early July and early August, respectively. The crop production index in the three regions ranges from 0.87 to 0.9, indicating that the crop growth condition was below the average level.

The agricultural meteorological indicators in the agricultural ecological regions of Rajasthan and Gujarat, and the northwest arid region are similar. Compared with the average level of the same period in the past 15 years, the cumulative precipitation and PAR were both higher than the average level, but the average air temperature was slightly lower than the average level, and the potential biomass was above average. Compared with the average of the same period in the past 5 years, the proportion of cultivated land and the cropping intensity index were both higher than the average, indicating that cultivated land had a high utilization rate. The agricultural areas of Rajasthan and Gujarat had precipitation anomalies of 41.7% and 55.7% in July and September, respectively. The precipitation anomalies were -59.3% in August. Due to floods and droughts, the NDVI profile shows that crop growth was generally below average in the agricultural areas of Rajasthan and Gujarat. In the northwest arid region, the precipitation was relatively scarce in July, with an 15-year average annual precipitation of 153.3 mm. The initial abundant precipitation during the monitoring period actually increased the utilization rate of farmland and promoted crop growth. However, with the succession of drought and flood from August to September, there was an earlier NDVI decline compared with the average profile. The crop production index in both regions was not higher than 0.84, indicating that the crop growth was below the average level.

The agricultural meteorological indicators in the western coastal areas, the western Himalayan mountains, and northeastern India are similar. Compared with the average levels of the same period in the past 15 years, temperature and PAR were both above average, while cumulative precipitation was below average, and potential biomass was close to or lower than average. The proportion of cultivated land cultivation and the cropping intensity index are comparable to the average level of the same period in the past five years. Crop growth NDVI profile shows an NDVI decline at the end of July and September in the western coastal areas affected by floods, with  precipitation anomaly of 72.8% in late July and a precipitation anomaly of 69% in late September. The NDVI in the western Himalayan Mountains was close to the average level, and the NDVI decline in early July and early August was related to 44.7% of the precipitation anomaly in early July and -33.7% of the precipitation anomaly from mid July to early August, respectively. The NDVI in northeastern India was close to the average level, and NDVI decline in August was related to an anomaly of 35.7% in early August precipitation. The crop production index of the three regions are 0.87, 0.93, and 0.93 respectively, indicating that the crop growth was below the average level.

Figure 3-20. Crop growth during July to October in 2023

(a) Phenological calendar of major crops

(b) Crop growth NDVI profile

(c) Maximum vegetation condition index

(d) Spatial cluster of NDVI anomaly（compared with 5-year average）  (e) Profile of NDVI spatial cluster

(f) Precipitation profile

(g)  Temperature profile

(h) crop growth NDVI profile (eastern coastal region, central region, and Ganges Plain)

(i) crop growth NDVI profile（Rajasthan and Gujarat and the northwest arid region)

(j) Crop growth NDVI profile（western coastal areas, the western Himalayan mountains, and northeastern India)

Table 3.31. Agricultural meteorological indicators in 8 ecological zones in India during July to October in 2023 against the same period as the past 15 years

Table3.32 Agricultural meteorological indicators in 8 ecological zones in India during July to October in 2023 against the same period as the past 5 years