By the end of August, the harvest of irrigated potatoes and rice, which are summer crops, was reaching its completion. The sowing of winter crops like wheat and barley commenced in September. According to the NDVI-based crop condition development graph, the crop conditions in Iran during this whole monitoring period were slightly below the 5-year average. The accumulative rainfall was down by 27%. The photosynthetically active radiation was 2% below average, whereas the average temperature was 0.7℃ above average. The potential biomass was 4% smaller than the 15-year average. The national maximum vegetation condition index (VCIx) was 0.59, while the cropped arable land fraction (CALF) was 3% above the average of the past 5 years. The national average Crop Production Index (CPI) was 0.84, indicating an unfavorable crop production status.

The NDVI spatial patterns show that from July to October, 2.1% (marked in blue) of the cropped area had slightly above-average crop conditions throughout the whole monitoring period. 85.3% (marked in dark green and light green) of the cropped area experienced around-average crop conditions. 3.6% of the cropped area (marked in red) had near-average crop conditions at first, and then rose to slightly-above average from late September. 9% of the cropped area (marked in orange) experienced slightly below-average crop conditions during the whole monitoring period, mainly distributed in some parts of Mazandaran, Golestan, and Sistan and Baluchestan. The spatial pattern of maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx) was in accord with the spatial distribution of the NDVI profiles. Crop production during this period depended on irrigation, which resulted in fair conditions. 

However, the prolonged drought will also have a negative impact on the sowing and establishment of rainfed winter wheat, which is mainly grown in the north-west of the country and Fars province.

Regional Analysis 

Based on farming system, climate, and topographic conditions, Iran can be subdivided into three regions, two of which are the main areas for crop production, namely the semi-arid to the subtropical hilly region in the west and the north (104) and the coastal lowland in the arid red sea plain area (103). 

In the semi-arid to the subtropical hilly region in the west and the north, the cumulative precipitation during the monitoring period was 51 mm, 25% below average. Temperature was 0.5℃ above average and photosynthetically active radiation was slightly below the 15YA (-1%). The potential biomass was 5% lower than average. Crop conditions were slightly below the 5-year average. The proportion of cultivated land was 13%, which was 3% larger than the 5YA. Cropping intensity (CI) was at average. The average VCIx for this region was 0.65, indicating fair crop prospects.

In the coastal lowland in the arid red sea plain area, the temperature was 1.2℃ above average. The accumulated precipitation was only 6 mm, 63% below average. The photosynthetically active radiation was 2% below average. The potential biomass was 6% smaller than the 15-year average. During the monitoring period, CALF was 12% above the 5YA, while CI was 2% below the 5YA. Although the NDVI-based crop condition graph expressed slightly better-than-average crop conditions, the value of VCIx was only 0.45. The crop prospects were fair. 

Figure 3.21. Iran' s crop condition, July‐October 2023

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c) Maximum VCI

(d) Rainfall profile

(e) Temperature profile

(f) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA           (g) NDVI profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (semi-arid to the subtropical hilly region in the west and the north)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (coastal lowland in the arid red sea plain area)

Table 3.103. Iran's agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July - October 2023

Table 3.104. Iran’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA and 15YA, July - October 2023