During this reporting period, the winter wheat harvest concluded in July, and the new crop was sown in October. At the national level, rainfall was 2% below the 15-year average, while radiation and temperature were slightly higher. Biomass and CALF were slightly below average. The national VCIx was 0.77. The crop condition development graph indicates that NDVI was above average in July and then gradually declined to average and below average levels by mid September.  In summary, overall crop conditions were significantly below average in September and October. However, the peak period for sowing of the winter crops is in November.

Analyzing NDVI clusters and corresponding departure profiles, approximately 13.9% of cropland (highlighted in red), primarily located in northern Italy (Piemonte and Lombardia), exhibited a positive departure from the 5-year average from September to October. About 11.0% of arable land experienced below-average crop conditions (highlighted in blue). Around 75.1% of arable land (highlighted in orange, light green, and dark green), mainly in Lombardia, Lazio, Catania, and Sardegna, encountered below-average conditions in July and August but reached above-average conditions between September and October.

Regional Analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, four sub-national zones can be distinguished for Italy. These four regions are East Coast (108), Po Valley (105), Islands (107), and Western Italy (106).

The East Coast, primarily in Puglia, Marche, and Abruzzi, experienced below-average rainfall (RAIN -44%). Biomass decreased by 15%, and CALF decreased by 1% to reach 62%. The NDVI curve was below average in September and October. This situation suggests that the region was impacted by reduced rainfall during September and October, potentially causing delays in wheat planting.

Po Valley covering Piemonte, Lombardia, and Veneto, was affected by slightly higher rainfall (RAIN +18%) and temperature (TEMP +2%). Biomass was 12% above the 15-year average, VCIx was 0.80, and the crop condition was near average.

Islands recorded below-average precipitation (RAIN -72%). Biomass decreased by 22%, VCIx was 0.51 (the lowest among the four AEZs), and the Cropping Intensity was the lowest. The NDVI curve was significantly below average in September and October due to the rainfall deficit. 

Western Italy experienced below-average rainfall (ΔRAIN -21%). Biomass decreased by 7%, and VCIx was 0.82. The NDVI curve was remained below average in September and October despite two decades with above average rainfall in  September and October.

Figure 3.24 Italy’s crop condition, July - October 2023

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b)  Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, RAIN and TEMP (Italy).  

(c) Maximum VCI

(d)Spatial distribution of NDVI profiles.

(e) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, RAIN and TEMP (East Italy).

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, RAIN and TEMP (Po Valley).

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, RAIN and TEMP (Islands).

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, RAIN and TEMP (Western Italy).

Table 3.45 Italy’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 15YA, April 2022-July 2022

Table 3.46 Italy’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, April 2022-July 2022