This report covers the growth and harvest of spring wheat, which was the main cultivated crop during this monitoring period in Kazakhstan. Crop production in Kazakhstan is mostly rainfed, as only 3% of the cropland is under irrigation. According to the NDVI profiles, the national average NDVI values were below average from July to August, and returned to above average from early September to October.

Compared to the 15-year average, accumulated rainfall and temperature were above average (RAIN +73%, TEMP +0.8°C), while the radiation was below average (RADPAR -4%). The dekadal precipitation was mostly above average from July to October, and exceeded the 15-year maximum in early and late August, September, and late October. The dekadal temperature was far above average in July, early August, and early October. The abundant rainfall and warmer temperatures resulted in a significant increase in the BIOMSS index by 32%.

The national average maximum VCI index was 0.76 and the Cropped Arable Land Fraction (CALF) was below average by 6%. The cropping intensity was slightly above average by 1%. The average national CPI was 0.97, indicating generally normal conditions. According to the national crop condition development graphs, about 70.8% of croplands experienced below average crop conditions from July to August, and then returned to above average from September. About 10.5% of croplands, which were distributed in some areas of the Kostanai and Akmola states in the central north region, Batysdy Kazakstan state in the northwest region, and Kyzylorda and Almaty states in central south region, experienced favorable crop conditions from July to October. About 18.7% of croplands scattered in central-north region experienced poor crop conditions from July to September.  

According to the agro-climate and agronomic indicators of CropWatch, due to the adverse impacts of the rainfall deficit in May and June, which caused poor crop establishment and above average rainfall during the harvest season, the output of spring wheat is estimated to be below last year's levels.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, four sub-national agro-ecological regions can be distinguished for Kazakhstan, among which three are relevant for crop cultivation: the Northern region (112), the Eastern plateau and southeastern region (111) and the South region (110).

In the Northern region, the accumulated precipitation was far above average (RAIN +79%). The abundant rainfall and warm temperature (TEMP +1.0°C) resulted in a significant increase of the BIOMSS index by 39%. However, NDVI profiles show that crop conditions were below average during the growth season. It might be attributed to the negative impact of the rainfall deficit in May and June. The average VCIx for this region was 0.75, and the CALF was below average by 5%. The cropping intensity was slightly above average by 1%. The spring wheat production is estimated to be lower than the five-year average.

In the Eastern plateau and southeastern region, the accumulated precipitation and temperature were above average (RAIN +66%, TEMP +0.2°C). Although the higher rainfall led to an increase of potential biomass by 20%, the crop conditions for this region were below average during this reporting period. The average VCIx for this region was 0.78, and CALF was below average by 6%. Output for spring wheat is estimated to be below average.

In the South region, the accumulated precipitation was above average by 67%, and the temperature was also above average (TEMP +1.2°C). The combination of agro-climatic indicators resulted in an increase of the BIOMSS index by 13%. The NDVI profiles show below-average conditions from July to October. The average VCIx for this region was 0.64, and CALF was below average by 18%. The outputs of spring crops are estimated to be poor.

Figure 3.23 Kazakhstan's crop condition, July - October 2023

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b). Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c). Maximum VCI

(d). Rainfall profiles 

(e). Temperature profiles

(f) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                               (g) NDVI profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (North region)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Eastern plateau and southeastern region)

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (South zone)

Table 3.38 Kazakhstan agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 15YA, July - October 2023

Table 3.39 Kazakhstan, agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, July - October 2023