Kenya undergoes two distinct rainy seasons, with the long rains occurring from March to late May and the short rains from late October to December. Maize cultivation takes place during both the long and short rains, while wheat is only grown during the long rains. This report, covering the monitoring period from July to October 2023, focuses on the crucial wheat and long rain maize growing and harvesting stages.

On a national scale, Kenya has been grappling with severe drought conditions since 2020. In this monitoring period, precipitation measured 135 mm, a stark 59% below the average. The National rainfall profile indicates that precipitation levels were consistently below the 15YA, although the situation improved in October. At the sub-national level, rainfall was below average in all regions except for the Eastern coast. The Southwest region faced the most significant negative departure compared to the 15-year average (ΔRAIN -94%). The NDVI development graph at the national level indicates that throughout the monitoring period, NDVI values were slightly below the 5-year average.

According to NDVI clusters and corresponding departure profiles, the blue and orange regions exhibited slightly higher NDVI values than the average, indicating good crop growth, with relatively high VCIx values. In the central region, the red areas initially showed lower NDVI values in early August, but the corresponding VCIx values ranged from 0.8 to 1.0, indicating close to normal crop growth conditions. The light and dark green areas, covering 30.1% of the national cropland, are primarily located in the highland agricultural zone. NDVI values were below the average, indicating poor crop growth, consistent with regions showing relatively low VCIx values. Overall, the Eastern coastal and Southwest regions enjoyed favorable water supply conditions and optimal crop growth, while the other areas were affected to varying degrees by drought.

Regional Analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, Kenya can be divided into four sub-national agro-ecological regions: the Eastern coastal region (113), the Highland agriculture zone (114), the Northern region (115), and the Southwest region (116).

In the Eastern Coastal Region, rainfall was above average by 31%, with temperatures and RADPAR slightly higher than the average. BIOMSS was 22% higher than the 15Y. The maximum VCI was 0.89, and CALF increased by 8% to reach 96%. The NDVI curve closely followed the five-year average. Overall, crop conditions in the coastal area are favorable, with promising prospects for both livestock and crop production.

The Highland Agriculture Zone received 119 mm of rain, 66% below the 15YA. Low precipitation (ΔRAIN -22%) resulted in a notable biomass reduction. The maximum VCI recorded was 0.71, CALF was reduced to 73% (ΔCALF -9%). Cropping Intensity was 164%. NDVI was slightly below the 5YA, particularly in late July and September, indicating the negative impact of the rainfall deficit on the growth of crops like wheat and long-rain maize. Overall, drought conditions affected crop growth in the upland agricultural areas with below-average rainfall.

In the Northern Rangelands Region precipitation was significantly below average at 166 mm (RAIN -35%). BIOMSS was also below average (ΔBIOMSS -3%). The NDVI development graph showed values below average. CALF was reduced to 59% (ΔCALF -4%), Cropping Intensity was 142%. Overall, the situation of crop growth in this area was unfavorable.

The Southwest Region encompassing districts like Narok, Kajiado, Kisumu, Nakuru, and Embu experienced the largest negative departure in rainfall (ΔRAIN -94%). Indicator values observed include RADPAR (ΔPADPAR -7%), and BIOMSS (ΔBIOMSS -58%). The NDVI curve was slightly below the 5YA, especially from August to early September. Conditions were unfavorable.

Figure 3.24 Kenya's crop condition, July-October 2023

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b)  Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, RAIN and TEMP (Kenya).  

(c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                                       (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, The eastern coastal region(left), The Highland agriculture zone(right)

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, the northern region with sparse vegetation (left), South-west (right)

Table 3.40 Kenya's agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July -October 2023

Table 3.41 Kenya's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure, July - October 2023