The reporting interval from July to October covers the harvesting period of maize, which was concluded in July. No cereal crops are grown during this monitoring period because of low rainfall during the summer months. After the current monitoring period, the sowing of winter wheat is going to start in November. The cumulative rainfall was 49 mm which is lower than the 15-year average (15YA) by 43%. The rainfall profile shows that the rainfall did not exceed 20 mm and fell mainly during October. The average temperature was 23.6°C (0.9°C higher than the 15YA). The temperature profile shows that the temperature fluctuated around the average. Both RADPAR and BIOMSS were lower than the 15YA by 0.3% and 8%, respectively. The decrease in BIOMSS can be attributed to the decrease in rainfall. The nationwide NDVI profile was below the 5-year average (5YA) during the reporting period. The NDVI spatial pattern shows that only 4.6% of the cultivated area was above the 5YA while the rest was below the 5YA. The Maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx) map shows that the condition of the current crops was below average where the dominant VCIx values were below 0.5. This finding agrees with the whole country's VCIx value of 0.38. CALF was lower than the 5YA by 31%. The nationwide crop production index (CPI) was at 0.71 implying below normal crop production situation. However, most land was left fallow during the summer months.

Regional analysis

CropWatch adopts three agroecological zones (AEZs) relevant to crop production in Morocco: the Sub-humid northern highlands (area identified as 125 in the crop condition clusters map), the Warm semiarid zone (126), and the Warm sub-humid zone (127).

Rainfall was below the 15YA by 41%, 56%, and 35% while the temperature was higher than the 15YA by 0.6°C, 0.8°C, and 0.7°C in the three zones in their listed order, respectively. RADPAR was at 15YA in zones 125 and 126 while it was lower the 15YA in zone 127 by 1%. In the three zones, BIOMSS was lower than 15YA by 9%, 9%, and 7% respectively. The NDVI development graph shows that crop conditions were below the average in the three zones following the nationwide NDVI  profile. CALF was below the 5YA by 25%, 62%, and 26% with maximum VCI values at 0.39, 0.34, and 0.42 for zones 125, 126, and 127 respectively, implying below-average crop conditions. Cropping Intensity estimates were at 101%, 100%, and 102% for the three zones in their listed order, respectively, indicating all regions dominated by single cropping during the investigation period. In three zones, CPI was at 0.70, 0.46, and 0.75, respectively, implying below normal crop production situation following the nationwide CPI.

Figure 3.27 Morocco’s crop condition, July - October 2023

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI(c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA(e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Sub-humid northern highlands) and (g) Warm semiarid zones)

(h) crop condition development graph based on NDVI, Warm subhumid zones

(i) Time series profile of rainfall (j)Time series profile of temperature

Table 3.45 Morocco’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values, and departure from 15YA, July - October 2023

Table 3.46 Morocco’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values, and departure from 15YA/5YA, July - October 2023